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Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
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Jan 25 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
I just want to share some fun stories with you for a second

Come along for a ride with me
Fertilizer is so expensive at the moment due to natgas shortage that people are using human 💩

> However, Butler said that it’s increasingly difficult to source human excrement as “there is more demand than supply for biosolid materials.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ireland was burning fuel-oil for energy the other day
Power appears to be out across Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan Image
The state of Texas is currently claiming that they do not have enough *paper*, due to supply chain issues, to offer voter registration forms to people who have recently become US citizens

kut.org/politics/2022-…
Everyone and their mother is vilifying oil, and we don't seem to be adding capacity - exploration has crashed throughout the pandemic - yet demand is staying strong
Aerial incursions in Abu Dhabi being intercepted in the night sky
The COVID strain people are watching right now, BA.2, appears to be 90% more infectious than the strain of omicron currently stampeding around the world. >50% of cases in Denmark at this point
Oh, and the Federal Reserve meets tomorrow, with some expecting the first 50bp hike in a long time (I don't), the will-they-or-won't-they situation in Ukraine is ongoing, and pictures of empty grocery store shelves abound
We are in weird times, friends. Don't panic. Plan for it.
Technical correction: it has a 90% growth advantage - this could be for multiple reasons, like transmissibility, immune escape, etc

I apologize for the error
🎉 BONUS ROUND! 🎉

A truck carrying 100 monkeys from Africa destined for a CDC lab in Missouri collided with a dump truck in Pennsylvania, and a woman who went to help, sticking her hand into one of the crates that she thought contained cats, may have caught something from them

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More from @ccneill

Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Jan 24
Some things I'm chewing on
Do not fully trust a narrative unless you can see the assumptions underlying it and decide whether you agree with them, or at least detect points where you have uncertainty about the claims being made
Related: if you can't find points of disagreement with what someone's saying, or at least places where you're unsure that their statements are fully supported by facts, you may not yet have the epistemic scaffolding to have confidence in their claims

Try to avoid parroting them
Read 9 tweets
Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Aug 26, 2021
Imagine if people from the 1300s were here on Twitter with the rest of us, talking exactly like present-day Twitter users

"smh 🙄 I'm literally exhausted by all these people who don't understand bad humors"
Consider that the apex of any present-day field of study is likely the top of a ladder that spans from hundreds of years ago to today, and that naïve assumptions about said field might not differ greatly from our medieval poaster's
Further, consider that it is impossible for anyone to grok hundreds of years' worth of insights for *every* field within one lifetime, no matter how much we can compress them

Hopefully this better illustrates the potential virtue of "levels"
Read 4 tweets
Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Aug 6, 2021
It might seem like security/privacy people wail and complain at every little thing tech companies do to surveil their users

Be glad they do. Once it starts, software-based surveillance only ever ratchets up

One software update away from global, opaque, unaccountable tyranny
"Oh, but we SUPER pinky-promise to only use it for good"

Okay cool, give me the source code and let me decide if I want to run it then
eff.org/deeplinks/2021…

apple.com/child-safety/

> The threshold is set to provide an extremely high level of accuracy and ensures less than a one in one trillion chance per year of incorrectly flagging a given account.

🤣 one in a trillion. Oh, you make me laugh, Apple
Read 18 tweets
Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Jan 2, 2021
I was looking forward to this episode with @profplum99 on @ErikSTownsend's new Smarter Markets podcast, and they delivered big time!

Some takeaways 👇
The story many are familiar with goes like this: because BlackRock and Vanguard are so dominant in the asset "management" space, they can charge low fees but make it up on volume

This is true, and leads to further consolidation as investors focus more and more on fees
Jack Bogle himself called this out in a WSJ op-ed as an area for concern with passive funds - size would lead to lower fees, fewer players could compete, leading to a feedback loop of more concentration and dominance as big players grew bigger

wsj.com/articles/bogle…
Read 24 tweets
Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Dec 8, 2020
The ideal social media network for me would eliminate or significantly reduce the game of positioning yourself above others as if you were at the pinnacle of knowledge/skill in something

It would be built in - by virtue of you being here, you're on my level & we eschew the game
An illustration using first impressions of COVID:

Level 0: COVID is just the flu because that's the only mental box I have for it
Level 1: Experts told me COVID is bad
Level 2: eXpOnEnTiAL GrOwTh
Level 3: We know ~nothing, maximal caution until we know something, then reevaluate
There are variants of each of these levels, there are more levels, I'm not at the top level, top level != Cosmic Truth, etc

But it is exhausting watching people skirmishing over the levels instead of people at each level iterating, learning, & reaching for higher levels together
Read 16 tweets
Charles Neill 🤨 Profile picture
Jul 10, 2020
My portfolio after listening to @profplum99's excellent interview with @ttmygh and @fleckcap

Don't worry, a thread is coming 😇
I've shared some of Mike's interviews and concepts before, but this episode in particular was insanely good

If you've followed @profplum99 for a while, here's an overall summary of the episode

If you're not familiar with his work, you can skip this - I don't think you'll quite get the rich flavor of Mike's ideas (though it's a great, short summary for those who know his general pitch)
Read 25 tweets

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