Here is the nutshell of the nightmare for PM and Conservative Party: the Met is investigating because Sue Gray passed to the Met prima facie evidence that Downing Street parties broke the law; that is what her report would have implied if already published (she would have said…
that the illegality question was for the police to determine); the PM’s spokesman says the PM is confident he did not break the law, presumably because (as Johnson has repeatedly said) no one told him he was at a rule breaking event; but as everyone knows,…
ignorance of the law is almost never a defence, especially for someone who wrote the relevant law; so if the Met finds he attended an illegal party, he like everyone there would have broken the law; I understand why Tory MPs feel they can’t themselves pass judgement…
on whether the PM should be turfed out till they hear definitively from the Met and Gray; but all the toxic uncertainty in the meantime is the most amazing gift to the Labour Party (and not the best conditions for steady rational government).
PS just in case you missed it, Cressida Dick actually said this morning the police take cases more seriously and are more likely to investigate when they have good grounds to believe culprits are not naive idiots but should know the law and what rules they may be breaching
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
There is quite a lot of misinformation and rumour going around about the Sue Gray report. So here is now my best understanding of where we are. The likelihood is that it will be published today, though that is not definite. The uncertainty hinges around final bureaucratic…
processes that need to be undergone, such as checking with the Met Police that there is nothing in it that would prejudice their criminal investigation, and running it past Whitehall human resources and government lawyers. I am told categorically that the PM has…
committed to publish in full whatever Gray gives him, which in that sense will be the full report, not a summary, and that Downing St will not play politics with it. We’ll see. And if there are excisions, they will largely be of explosive detail relevant to the police…
My take on all that no-confidence letter speculation. 1) disenchantment with Boris Johnson among Tory MPs - especially the 2019 intake - continues to grow. Don’t believe all that “it’s plateauing”, “there’s not much anger from voters” stuff you can read in some places. 2) Sir…
Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, is not in a position to announce a confidence vote in Boris Johnson. He is still some way short of the 54 no-confidence letters needed to trigger a ballot. My guess is he is short…
circa 10 letters. 3) But if all the MPs threatening to put in letters actually do so, the 54 threshold may be breached in next few days. 4) my hunch is that the threshold won’t be breached before Sue Gray publishes her report into Downing Street parties. As I said…
.@Dominic2306 says there was a rule breaking drinks party in Downing St on 20 May 2020 (not the garden drinks that have been reported) and that there is a confirmatory email trail. A new alleged partygate scandal for Sue Gray to investigate
And here is @Dominic2306 detail about the alleged 20 May party. He explains that he however encouraged Downing St staff to work in the garden, and that is the background to the 15 May Guardian photo
Cummings also criticises the PM for failing to prioritise the manufacture and distribution of antivirals, against his advice, which would he says have significantly reduced Covid hospitalisation rates. Full Cummings blog here dominiccummings.substack.com/p/parties-phot…
The more I reflect on the exchange of letters between Lord Geidt and @BorisJohnson the stranger it seems. In his decision not to resign, Geidt is relying on his original curious judgement that it is OK for the PM’s lifestyle to be funded by the Tory Party and Brownlow, and that…
the question of when and whether Johnson knew where the money was coming from, and when and whether Johnson disclosed it in the register of ministerial interests, is a second order one. But if that is really so, why not privatise all a PM’s salary and living costs to…
Tory donors? Geidt seems to be suggesting that the privatisation of Downing St would be acceptable - and that the convoluted steps Johnson subsequently took to repay Brownlow and the Tory Party with a personal loan were unnecessary (poor Johnson!). And if Geidt doesn’t…
Confirmed: Brexit minister Lord Frost will resign from the government at end of year (as per report in @MailOnline). According to a colleague: Frost handed his resignation to @BorisJohnson “earlier this month after opposing the Plan B covid measures in cabinet”. MTF
Frost “was convinced by Mr Johnson to stay until January” says source. Frost was “among the strongest advocates inside for keeping the country open and for avoiding further legislative control measures to deal with the pandemic”. MTF
He is said to have argued that vaccine passports are “an inappropriate measure on principle”. Plus: “he does not believe that a European-style high tax high spend economic model that has been pursued by Downing Street is likely to deliver the benefits of Brexit”. MTF
The announcement this afternoon of Plan B restrictions on our lives - working from home, vaccine passports - is high risk on public health grounds. Because if the public see the timing as a cynical distraction from the Downing St Xmas party scandal, compliance will…
be even less than it would otherwise have been. And the heat of the anger from Tory MPs, already fuming as they face an onslaught of furious emails from voters about officials partying while they were banned from seeing sick loved ones, will incinerate anyone who…
comes too close. One senior Tory MP told me “with every day that passes, Boris Johnson unfitness to be prime minister becomes clearer”. This is an MP who always opposed Johnson. But every Tory MP I spoke to this morning was 1) demoralised the party happened at all and was…