The announcement this afternoon of Plan B restrictions on our lives - working from home, vaccine passports - is high risk on public health grounds. Because if the public see the timing as a cynical distraction from the Downing St Xmas party scandal, compliance will…
be even less than it would otherwise have been. And the heat of the anger from Tory MPs, already fuming as they face an onslaught of furious emails from voters about officials partying while they were banned from seeing sick loved ones, will incinerate anyone who…
comes too close. One senior Tory MP told me “with every day that passes, Boris Johnson unfitness to be prime minister becomes clearer”. This is an MP who always opposed Johnson. But every Tory MP I spoke to this morning was 1) demoralised the party happened at all and was…
2) incandescent that the prime minister’s official spokes people have consistently denied that it happened. “It is the lying that is doing us the most damage”, said another Tory MP. It is the collapse of trust in the government that alarms them most. In two minutes we’ll…
know how the PM hopes to her out of this hole

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More from @Peston

1 Dec
Alarming COVID-19 growth rates of probable #Omicron in South Africa’s Gauteng province, that includes Joburg. Already surging on 27 Oct, it accelerated on 29 Oct. This is an area where immunity was supposed to be relatively high. See attached from SA Covid19 Modelling Consortium
The third column is the percentage change compared with three days previously, so for the City of Johannesburg it was a rapid 587.55% on 29 October compared with 517.49% two days earlier.
The first column says whether cases have been rising for five days and the second column is the seven day total number of cases per 100,000 people
Read 5 tweets
28 Nov
🧵 @sajidjavid told Marr this morning it would be possible to quarantine for ten days in a timely way the contacts of those with Omicron because the new Covid variant comes up negative for the “S” gene in PCR tests (what he called “S gene drop out”), unlike Delta. 1/
I had already been told about this helpful characteristic of some PCR tests, which would allow rapid detection of Omicron growth relative to Delta. But I was also told only just over a third of tests carried out by NHS Test and Trace had the ability to check for the S gene. 2/
So although this characteristic of some PCR tests would help @UKHSA chart the growth of Omicron, it would not achieve just-in-time quarantining of contacts of those infected with Omicron, because for two thirds of Covid positives, gene sequencing would be required. 3/
Read 17 tweets
13 Nov
I am wondering whether I've been naive in thinking that the COP26 draft cover declaration will keep 1.5 degrees alive, and whether I have attached too much weight to paragraph 29 that "requests" countries toughen up their commitments to reduce emissions before 2030. My...
concern, reinforced by the US agreement with China, is that China will feel under little pressure to bring forward its commitment that its greenhouse gas emissions should peak by 2030. And unless China becomes more ambitious, there is no prospect of global warming...
being limited to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Much will depend therefore on how paragraph 29 is implemented. There will be a huge and heavy burden on @AlokSharma_RDG, as COP president for a year - and by implication on @BorisJohnson too - to be guardian and...
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
Having heard the @MarosSefcovic press conference and read the @DavidGHFrost statement, it is clear that the decision by @BorisJohnson whether to trigger Article 16 and start a damaging trade war with the EU will almost certainly be a purely political one by him, because...
Sefcovic and Frost are working to ease the friction on trade between GB and Northern Ireland, with the flow of medicines a priority. All will depend on two issues: whether Johnson regards it as a matter of overwhelming importance that the European Court of Justice should...
have no role in adjudicating on Northern Ireland European single market trade disputes, since the EU will not budge on this; and whether the putative domestic political benefits to him of having yet another punch up with the EU outweigh the inevitable economic costs of a trade...
Read 5 tweets
31 Oct
There has been a notable breakthrough on climate change at the #G20Italia meeting of the 20 most powerful world leaders in Rome, with a statement in the communiqué that pledges they will take further action to formulate, implement, update and enhance…
commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases “ahead” of 2030. According to an official, this sets up #COP26 to “to deliver a short term acceleration [in greenhouse gas emissions] through the negotiations”. Several officials tell me…
that for them this is a much better G20 outcome than they expected even yesterday. Which may tell you something about the poverty of ambition of world leaders when it comes to climate change. And it gives a following wind to the idea I discussed yesterday that this COP…
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
The national living wage is set to be increased from £8.91 per hour to £9.50 I understand, on the advice of the Low Pay Commission. The recommendation has been put to the business secretary, @KwasiKwarteng, who is the minister responsible for the Commission. The 6.6%...
increase in what is the minimum wage for all those over 22 years old has been accepted by Kwarteng. It will be formally announced by the Chancellor, @RishiSunak, in the budget on Wednesday. The rise is inflation-busting, and will go some way to compensating the low paid...
for recent significant rises in the price of energy, petrol and food, at a time when the £1000 a year top-up to Universal Credit has been (controversially) removed. The rise will increase employers' costs directly and probably also via an upward ratchet of the wage rates of...
Read 7 tweets

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