"Most people, including me, will flip through one essay after the next like nothing, oblivious to the hard work We are spoiled with great content. I personally subscribe to over a dozen newsletters. Most sit in my inbox unread."
"Some will cancel their subscription if they have to waste even 5 seconds logging in to read a 5,000 word post. "Too much friction".
“Fluff” is also friction ... the more insidious content-specific kind where you don’t make a meaningful point"
"finding aligned partners has been a long process. Getting to scale took 5+ years, it came all at once, and there are a million scenarios where I make the same moves and things don’t work out. Just because someone isn’t managing money doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of doing so"
"young fund managers, and I've been guilty of this too, have a tendency to over-intellectualize and complicate investing. Some of this is theater. ... wisdom from experienced veterans can often appear trite and simplistic... that's often because they're done trying to impress"
"That "no $100bn companies since 1950 have grown revenue by 15% over a decade" may be a fact, but it doesn't take into account the process by which Amazon got to where it is."
"Rather than cling too firmly to historical base rates, it seems more useful to ask what’s different about Amazon and Google, and to then consider the consequences of that answer. Statistics aren't explanations."
"Shows and movies emphasize silver bullet events ...
Reality is far less exciting. What really happens is you build muscle memory about a company and its ecosystem and calibrate conviction along the way. ... Research should be exploratory, not confirmatory.
"But this project didn't start with high-minded aims. It started with me stressing out over how I was going to earn a living as I burned through my limited savings and struggled to launch my fund." libertyrpf.com/p/interview-wi…
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It's easy to overtrade when volatility is high and the market can make even legends look like fools.
Soros entered the the crash of '87 badly positioned: short Japan, long the US.
Japan held firm and the bounce in US markets looked like it was fading. Soros dumped his position.
He told the trader: "I'm going to walk out of here, they're not going to carry me out."
Survival was key. He had confidence in making it back - unless he lost his capital.
For a while he looked like a fool. Barron's: "A Bad Two Weeks: A Wall Street Star Loses $840 million"
But Soros was still in the game and could go on winning.
Druckenmiller: "He knows all he has to do is stay in the game and his talents will come back. For the threat of looking silly, he's not going to jeopardize the fund."
"A lesson I wish I’d learned much earlier in life is that people are not always believable in the same domains that they think they are.
... some influential, very high-IQ people often have limited awareness of exactly where their circle of competence ends." by @tom_morganKCP
"Whenever someone offers you their opinion, a superb initial question paraphrases Morgan Housel: “what have you experienced that makes you believe what you do?”"
"there are probably no universal “tells” for lying, but the ideal approach is to observe closely enough to get a baseline of behavior, then you can notice deviations. Across thousands of interactions this translates to an intuitive recognition of an articulate incompetent."
"We read a fair number of trucking message
boards, usually to see what truckers think of their
equipment or what they think about the economy"
"I’ve toured countless factories on five continents ... Usually I get to talk to line operators and learn about
products, production schedules, and culture.
Employee engagement is a key metric of a well-run
company. ... In modern production, quality is critical"
"I arrived in Peoria, Illinois, for a factory visit that showed just how disorganized production can get
when a sharp rise in demand meets a poorly running
system.
most memorably, there were bins filled with components labeled “re-work.” ...bins were stacked more than head high"
"I am attracted to ugly ducklings because I view myself as one. ... I gravitate toward investments that remind me of important aspects of my self-image, and can sometimes see something special in them before it is clear to the stock market."
"watering the flowers and cutting the weeds" vs “cut your losers and let your winners run”
"They are both tapping into the same fundamental feature of the universe – inertia, momentum, Newton’s First Law"
"with winners/losers, the buck stops with price. vs flowers/weeds with operating results.
The difference comes when your assessment of results differs from the stock price. Then you sell the weed that is still a “winner” and buy the flower whose stock price is dropping."
"Over-reliance on the written word removes the groundedness of lived experience... Our contemporary internet world produces a further level of abstraction. If text is a ‘reminder’ of reality, the cyber world is a reminder of a reminder, a facsimile of a facsimile" @thomasjb3van
1984 & Brave New World:
"those societies are all simply examples of different manipulative strategies and technologies utilised to achieve the same end. Which is to have their citizen live in a perpetual memoryless present, in order to maintain a power devoid of responsibility"
"each and every dystopia features the suppression and the destruction of texts."
"You've got an index, which is heavily weighted to China. When that one country is going down, people say: ‘Oh, God, emerging markets are over.’ But they fail to recognize that the Indian market is going through the roof, for example."
"The tax reform in India has done a tremendous job of making it easier to transport goods from one state to another. ... As soon as you free up these countries, the growth rate tends to accelerate. India is just at the beginning of this process. I have great hopes for India. "
"I always tell my analysts to keep your head in the clouds and your feet on the ground.
You can be very creative and ambitious to find new companies, but we want companies that have a good return on assets, growth in earnings per share, and a low debt to equity ratio."