About 60 million people in the US over age 5 haven't yet been vaccinated against Covid. Here's a breakdown of who they are based on the latest CDC data, and who I'm most worried about. 1/thread
One-third of unvaccinated people are kids ages 5-11 who recently became eligible. Another third are young adults (ages 18-39) who are less likely overall to seek health care. These groups could benefit from vaccine protection but aren't at high risk of dying from Covid. 2/
Nor are teens, ages 12-17. They also recently became eligible for vaccination, and two-thirds of them are vaccinated—but around 8 million are not. 3/
Then there's the most concerning group. Almost 14 million people age 40 or older are unvaccinated and face a higher risk of severe illness and death from Covid:
6 million ages 40-49
5 million ages 50-64 1.6 million ages 65-74
1 million age 75+
4/
White people make up about 60% of the population, but nearly 70% of all unvaccinated. 5/
Close to 30% of all unvaccinated people are in just four states: Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Georgia. 6/
Unvaccinated people are more likely to get infected with Covid and to become severely ill, as this stunning graph from CDC shows. Get up-to-date on your vaccination! bit.ly/3tY7oS9 7/end
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Omicron is causing a TSUNAMI, not a wave, of infections in the US. No one knows what will come next with Covid, but we can make a big difference now by taking simple actions to shield the vulnerable & protect health care. Here's where we are—and where we might be headed. 1/thread
We’ve learned a lot about Omicron in the past two months. It’s stunningly transmissible and has left Delta in the dust. Omicron is far less likely than Delta to cause severe disease, especially in people who are vaccinated and boosted. 2/
We’ll know more in a few more weeks, but it appears that the current spike in Covid cases driven by Omicron may subside nearly as quickly as it rose, as happened in South Africa. 3/
Some have criticized CDC’s guidance on isolation for people who test positive for Covid. I believe it’s basically correct, though they could roll it out better. 1/thread
Last night I explained what the new guidance means for you if you get Covid. Now I’m going to tackle why the guidance makes sense from a public health perspective. 2/
Isolation prevents people with Covid from spreading the infection, but it has negative effects, not only on the physical and mental health of the person isolated, but also on their family and their community's ability to continue important activities. 3/
No one wants to spread an infection to someone who could get seriously ill or die from it. If you test positive for Covid or have symptoms, it’s important to stay home and isolate. I’ll try to clarify CDC’s guidance on what you should do if you get Covid. 1/thread
The reality is that Omicron is out of control in the US. Because of this, critical services are at risk of disruption, including our health system, schools, and transportation. We MUST save both lives and livelihoods. 2/
Based on what we know right now, Omicron is much more infectious than other variants and shortens the time between exposure and symptomatic illness. People are most infectious just before they develop symptoms and a day or two after. 3/
What will happen with Covid in 2022?? There’s SO much we don’t know about Omicron and the future of Covid. I outline 12 questions and reveal how we can avoid Covid dominating our lives in 2022. Here we go… 1/thread
Question 1: How much severe illness will Omicron cause in different risk groups? People who were previously infected, those with or without vaccination, and people who have gotten boosted, by age group. Looks less severe, but only time will tell. Let’s dive into severity. 2/
15 months ago we compared Covid-19/flu. Best estimate Covid 5x deadlier than flu, now clear about 10x. (Flu, frankly, doesn’t get the respect it deserves for hospitalizing hundreds of thousands and killing tens of thousands in the US every year.) bit.ly/3FtTN7V 3/
A tidal wave of Omicron will hit the US and other countries at the worst possible time—holidays approaching, health systems strained from Delta, flu starting, many feeling pandemic fatigue. If we get our response right, Covid won't dominate our lives in 2022. Here’s how. 1/thread
It’s astonishing how quickly Omicron is spreading and leaving Delta in the dust. It may be one of the most contagious viruses we’ve ever seen. New case records have already been set in South Africa and the UK and are inevitable in the United States 2/
Omicron already made up ~3% of Covid in the US on December 11. The proportion is significantly higher now, doubling every 2-3 days. New York City, the original Covid epicenter in the US, is again at the forefront with Omicron. nyti.ms/32bowbe 3/
What are the facts on Omicron? The picture is getting clearer: Omicron spreads faster and is better able to escape immunity than other variants. Severity is still unknown, although it's likely vaccination reduces severe disease. The virus has adapted; we must as well. 1/thread
Today’s technical briefing from @UKHSA has a wealth of info. Encouraging to see quick research and action from scientists and health agencies in South Africa, UK & other places, and CDC. Too little credit often given for great work under great pressure. bit.ly/31QLILV 2/
Omicron will almost certainly overtake Delta and cause new waves of infection globally. This happened within weeks in South Africa. In the UK, Omicron cases are projected to reach parity with Delta by mid-December, according to the briefing, and are doubling every 2-3 days. 3/