This is excellent, though I'm not persuaded by the argument that it represented a full pivot on Macron's Russia policy (as @JosephdeWeck interestingly argues here: ip-quarterly.com/en/macrons-piv…. Macron is a careful speaker, generally;
and there was enough ambiguity in what he said--and enough reason to anticipate that allies would find *any* ambiguity deeply dismaying (for the reasons @NTenzer lays out)--that I'm pretty sure a clear pivot would have been clearly phrased.
And I suspect he'd have apprised allies of it, too, and made the point clearly in many fora. Obviously, he'd want to regain the political capitol he's sacrificed.
So I agree the English-language reporting was terrible; it made it sound worse than it was. But this argument makes it sound better than it was.

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More from @ClaireBerlinski

Jan 26
Are any of my followers looking for a wonderful web designer? @VivekYKelkar and I were at our very wits' end with our website--despairing--when we found @AmanDha36782516 almost by accident, on Upwork.
We had no idea who to choose of all the people who applied, and we just thought, "Well, we'll go with him." But he is *fantastic.* He lives in Chandigarh, and he is the hardest-working, sweetest, most committed web designer you can imagine.
He has the best work ethic of anyone I've worked with: His response to anything we ask is, "Yes! I can do that!"
We think he did a fabulous job with @cosmo_globalist: cosmopolitanglobalist.com
Read 4 tweets
Jan 25
Do I have any linguists among my followers? I have a question the answer to which I actually can't find on Google. It's this.
Recently, I've heard a lot of native English speakers making a sound--I believe the name for this kind of sound is an alveolar click--before speaking.
It's so common that I can't believe I never noticed that everyone does this before. But it's very strange that I've never read a discussion of the phenomenon and I can't find one on Google.
Have English-speakers been doing this all my life? Or is this new? What does it mean?
It seems to happen when people are speaking publicly and have been quiet for a minute or two before speaking: It seems to mean, "I am about to speak."
Read 7 tweets
Jan 24
I've thought this a bit in recent days. Putin's favorite game is screwing with his adversaries' minds. (Given the state or our minds this is like shooting fish in a barrel, admittedly.) A highly-telegraphed, conventional invasion of Ukraine?
It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing Putin likes.
Could his real goal be the Suwalski Gap?
That doesn't seem plausible to me.
He's a risk taker, sure, but that's a truly insane risk.
Still, I do wonder whether all of this is some kind of distraction. From what, I don't know. But the truth is that Putin has been extraordinarily successful in advancing his goals in Europe *without* a meat-grinding conventional war.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
"Last April, she beat up her own mother to claim the top spot among the females of her troop."
This monkey just gets better and better: "But as if that weren't enough, in her quest for dominance she violently overthrew Sanchu, the 31-year-old alpha male who had been leader of troop B for five years, in June." dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ar…
"In 2011, during a previous breeding season, Yakei paired with 15-year-old male Goro, after he bit her in the face."
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
So @ArunInParis wanted an agenda for the Twitter Space; here's the one I suggest, feel free to amend.
1. Polls. Who's up this week? Who's down? Whose poll do we trust and why?
2. The pandemic: How significant do we think this issue will prove? How are the candidates positioning themselves as pandemic-wranglers? Macron's "emmerder" gambit.
3. Parrainage: Will any candidate fail to get the signatures?

4. The primaire populaire de la gauche: Does this matter at all? Is there any chance of a left candidate emerging through any conceivable path?
Read 7 tweets
Jan 16
Reminder: We've been meeting weekly (except during the holidays) to discuss the French presidential race. (In English.) Who's up? Who's down? If you're interested in French politics, join us today at 3:00 pm French time. #FrenchElectionTwitterSpace
Any suggested reading prior to the Twitter Space, @ArunLeParisien @jclavel2003 @fredericg? (In French or English.) I'll post a few things that caught my eye on this thread.
Read 11 tweets

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