Putin is a good tactician and great at spotting opportunities. But Putin is a lousy strategist. Long term he is weakening Russia's position to a point were breakup is a real possibility. Don't forget that.
Putin couldn't manage Yanukovych so Ukraine was lost and as revenge Putin made sure the most pro-Russian voters would lose their influence in Ukrainian politics.
Instead of mediating Lukashenka's departure Putin went all in to support him, which will eventually make the friendly Belarusians turn against Putin and Russia.
By neglecting the needs of his own people chances are that large parts of Russians will associate Moscow with corruption and instead turn to local nationalistic leaders, in Tatarstan and other republics for example.
By only thinking about himself Putin has neglected succession. Many in his entourage has been around for a long time, new blood is missing. There is a real possibility of power vacuum and internal disorder when Putin leaves.
If Russia will go through a period with weak leadership after Putin leaves domestic and foreign opponents might see an opportunity to settle the score, and keep in mind Russia has no friends in the world.
If Russia will evacuate the occupied territories and pull back its troops posted abroad there will be many disgruntled people coming home, people whose only competence is violence. Russia might experience the 90s all over.
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