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Jan 26 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
Broad range of views on what could happen next with Russia & what the US must do represented in @POLITICOMag, including from Lilia Shevtsova, Fiona Hill, @EvelynNFarkas, @steven_pifer, and more. Some of my thoughts included in this mix: /1

politico.com/news/magazine/…
What will Putin do next? /2
What would surprise people about Putin? /3
Is Putin himself responsible for the Ukraine crisis, or is it driven by larger forces? /4
What’s Biden’s best move at this point? /5
Read the whole mix: /6

politico.com/news/magazine/…

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More from @MollyMcKew

Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 23
If you feel tempted to elevate disaster scenarios of “further invasion” of Ukraine — read this instead

“The Russians can get to Tallinn in two days... Maybe… They can get to Tallinn in two days. But they will die in Tallinn. And they know this.”

politico.com/magazine/story…
The reality facing the Estonians is the same one the Ukrainians have to face.

Don’t dismiss the reality facing Ukrainians. What they are prepared to do. What they have already had to do these past 8 years. And what they means about what comes next.
All we can really know: if Russia pushes the war outside its current boundaries to the scale their mobilization anticipates (maybe), a lot of people—soldier and civilian, Ukrainian and Russian—will die, and their destruction will bring catastrophic suffering.
Read 4 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 19
Will try to post videos later, but takeaways from today’s panels:
-N. Europeans (incl Balts) have most clarity on what is at stake, what to do
- 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 still hoping the voyage has a different destination
-Both sides want to see more US leadership
-We need to pick the right side /1
To me, it’s clear the right side is w/ the frontline allies, who everyday ask their citizens to prepare to sacrifice for nat’l defense

Everything else is a hat-tip to the Kremlin’s “sphere of influence” argument, and I refuse to condemn any peoples to a repeat of that history /2
It hurts my head that German officials can reference “burdens of history” as a reason for non-action against Russia when non-action can also be this condemnation to darkness.

The burden of all our histories is to defend the values that have given us our prosperous, safe lives /3
Read 5 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 18
“It’s a depressing moment when, as a political analyst, you realise that one of the most dominant trends in international politics is déjà vu.”

Haunting @dpatrikarakos essay on when the much-promised support for Ukraine from the West will come. /1

unherd.com/2022/01/why-bi…
“Why did Putin just walk into Crimea in 2014 & take it? Because he knew the West would talk but not act. Why did Belarusian President Lukashenko feel able to order a Ryanair plane down and take a dissident off it last year? Because he knew the West would talk but not act… /2
…Why is Moscow, now via Minsk, continuing to weaponise migrants against the EU? Well, you get the point. Moscow suffers no real consequences for its behaviour, so why should it stop? All the while, the West talks endlessly without really doing much... /3
Read 4 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 14
Russian FM Lavrov is using his annual presser to broadcast from upside-down world, where the revisionist West is disrupting the world order

“Russia is not bound by the obligation to respect the right to choose alliances”

🙄
Finland & Sweden are being “seduced” to artificially enlarge NATO

I say again, 🙄
“Everyone else is violating the rules but the rules don’t apply to Moscow” is a pretty good summary of everything we’ve been hearing from Russia’s team these past weeks.
Read 7 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 7
Strong and clear language on the Kremlin’s new security proposals from the Supreme Commander of Sweden’s Armed Forces:

“The proposals for a new security order would destroy the foundations of Sweden’s security policy.”

🔥 🇸🇪

dn.se/sverige/ob-rys…
Some highlights in English:
reuters.com/world/europe/s…
🇸🇪
Why isn’t there a NATO flag emoji
Read 4 tweets
Molly McKew Profile picture
Jan 3
Fmr NATO SecGen: “If NATO allies engage w/ Russia’s proposals for a new security relationship in Europe, they will be directly helping him move a step closer to achieving his goal, giving Russia the whip hand over the security of Central/Eastern Europe.”/1
politico.eu/article/russia…
“This is not a serious proposal from a man who wants peace.”

/2
“This also means we should end Putin’s de facto veto on Ukraine and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations…
We promised both Georgia and Ukraine seats at the NATO table in 2008, and it’s time we set out an action plan to realize our promise.”

Damn straight. /3
Read 4 tweets

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