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Lyn Alden Profile picture
@LynAldenContact
Jan 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Consumer spending is 69% of the US economy, up from under 60% decades ago. Image
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is very low. It collapsed during the initial pandemic, then bounced, and rolled over to new lows. Image
The PMI is rolling over, and junk bond yields are starting to go up. Image
Unlike the prior tightening cycle, the Fed will be attempting this tightening cycle with economic deceleration and low consumer sentiment from the start.

People don't want inflation. Well, one way to reduce inflation is to kill demand. People don't want that either.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The US runs a structural trade deficit, so unlike for example China, we can't really boost GDP by focusing on exports. If US consumption stagnates, US GDP likely stagnates too. Image

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More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
Jun 13
Notably, the long-term debt cycle coincides with the 4th turnings.

I mainly focus on what's happening quantitatively (debt). But keeping in mind the changing social/geopolitical dynamic is a nice accompaniment to that. Old institutions/norms facing entropy, death, rebirth.
🧵 Image
Published in 1997, The Fourth Turning spoke of 80-100 year cycles of history, with each fourth one being a "crisis" period.

It predicted 2005-2025+ would be the next 4th turning era. Where old institutions get restructured, social norms rapidly shift, and so forth.
Some people dismiss 4th turnings as pseudoscience, and I do get that.

But when you combine it with a quantitative backbone like this, it strengthens the useful aspects of it.

Naturally, any major sovereign-level debt cycle is going to coincide with big shifts in other things.
Read 7 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
May 2
For context, out of China's total exports in a given year, the US buys like 10-15% of them.

Many people don't seem to appreciate this.
China exports: $3.5 trillion per year
US imports from China: ~$500 billion Image
Image
China is the largest trading partner with the majority of countries in the world. Image
Read 5 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Mar 6
I've got my fluctuating list of top-5 or top-10 of financial/macro interviewers, and there are many great ones out there.

But the unchanging #1 of that list for several years now has been @JackFarley96.

How do I rank this? By the % of their interviews I actually listen to.
🧵
I'm a case where I'm both a consumer of financial media, and an interviewee in financial media.

As a consumer, I want an interviewer to seek out great guests, research them thoroughly, and ask the right questions.

That's not always the most sensationalist viewcount stuff.
As a consumer, I also want to see pushback against popular guests. They do say the same thing a lot.

Interviewers struggle to get popular guests on their show. And so they tend to be nice, to get them again.

But the best shows involve some push and pull. Have the guts to push!
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Feb 22
Here's a thread about social media decentralization.

A couple years ago, I tried to "like" one of Doomberg's posts about a platform, and I literally saw the heart fill up, and then drain out of it like blood. I'd never seen that before.

Twitter said me liking that was disabled: Image
Then, when I tried to search on Twitter for that certain platform that apparently can't be named, the search results would replace it with "newsletter" in my search of the network, which was kind of Orwellian: Image
Even now, I don't say the obvious visible name of that platform that starts with an S. Since an unconscious algo might derank it.

Maybe that's not an issue anymore. Probably.

The funny thing is that I didn't even post about that platform until I couldn't. Then I did a lot.
Read 24 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Feb 22
I think disagreement is the engine of change. Good ideas win or lose on their merits.

It might be short-form memes or long-form articles and books. But you need to be able to win your arguments that way.

Force is the *last* resort, usually in defense from irrationality.

But.🧵
Maybe I’m old-fashioned.

I was always taught in martial arts to be polite until hit, but then to rekt whoever hit me or those I am responsible for.

I think that’s pretty fair. It is a very high hurdle before your ideas can hurt me or my family enough for me to hit back.
My father was more hardcore, though.

He actually told me to hit bullies *first*.

He had a hard life and won, and I disagreed with his views early on.

I thought that was too rough. Too mean. My mother said otherwise. My conscience said otherwise.

But he was adamant on this.
Read 15 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Jan 5
A lot of individual facts that the bears were saying in 2023 and 2024 were correct, but those facts were dwarfed by fiscal dominance. Image
For example, net bank loan creation was sluggish at just $300B over the past year.

But banks also bought $400B net in Treasuries. Image
Healthcare spending, DoD spending, Social Security spending, and interest expense just kept rolling. Image
Read 4 tweets

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