"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience." (samuel johnson)
The beauty and the risks of one of the most common cognitive biases: the optimism bias.
𧡠π
The beauty and the risks of one of the most common cognitive biases: the optimism bias.
𧡠π
1.
Let's start with the definition:
the tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events and underestimate bad events likelihood.
It's a cognitive illusion that about 80% of us have: health issues, finance, career are all influenced by our optimistic bias.
Let's start with the definition:
the tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events and underestimate bad events likelihood.
It's a cognitive illusion that about 80% of us have: health issues, finance, career are all influenced by our optimistic bias.
2.
Actually our bias is more towards "private" optimism:
we're optimistic about ourselves, about our kids and our families, but we're not so optimistic about our fellow citizens or our country's future.
Actually our bias is more towards "private" optimism:
we're optimistic about ourselves, about our kids and our families, but we're not so optimistic about our fellow citizens or our country's future.
3.
Just a little scientific note:
the bias depends on a specific brain deficiency to respond to bad news.
And if your brain is failing at integrating bad news about the future, you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
Just a little scientific note:
the bias depends on a specific brain deficiency to respond to bad news.
And if your brain is failing at integrating bad news about the future, you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
4.
Without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed.
People with mild depression don't have a bias when they look into the future: paradoxically, they're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
Without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed.
People with mild depression don't have a bias when they look into the future: paradoxically, they're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
5.
But the question is, is it good for us?
Well, we have two different theories about:
.no, it's not: the secret to happiness is low expectations.
.fuck yes: high expectations enhance wellbeing!
But the question is, is it good for us?
Well, we have two different theories about:
.no, it's not: the secret to happiness is low expectations.
.fuck yes: high expectations enhance wellbeing!
6.
The logic behind the first theory:
if we don't expect greatness, to be healthy and successful, well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
Moreover, we're pleasantly surprised when they do.
The logic behind the first theory:
if we don't expect greatness, to be healthy and successful, well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
Moreover, we're pleasantly surprised when they do.
7.
Fair enough... but the second theory seems to have many more strengths:
.high expectations always feel better
.βregardless of the outcome, the pure act of anticipation makes us happy
.optimism changes subjective reality, and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Fair enough... but the second theory seems to have many more strengths:
.high expectations always feel better
.βregardless of the outcome, the pure act of anticipation makes us happy
.optimism changes subjective reality, and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
8.
Personal note about the power of anticipation:
maybe because of this I like much more the weeks between football champions league semifinal and final, than the final itself π€(let alone when my team lost the last battle π).
Personal note about the power of anticipation:
maybe because of this I like much more the weeks between football champions league semifinal and final, than the final itself π€(let alone when my team lost the last battle π).
9.
So, many experiments have shown that optimism is not only related to success:
- it leads to success -
Optimism leads to success in many fields, and maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health: If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced.
So, many experiments have shown that optimism is not only related to success:
- it leads to success -
Optimism leads to success in many fields, and maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health: If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced.
10.
But just be aware: unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior as well.
Think about reckless financial moves, or planning errors with projects costs and durations.
The British government, for example, adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias.
But just be aware: unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior as well.
Think about reckless financial moves, or planning errors with projects costs and durations.
The British government, for example, adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias.
11.
Protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful:
this is the challenge, and -Knowledge- is the key!
Becoming aware of the bias does not shatter the illusion and its benefits, but protects us from unrealistic expectations.
Protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, but at the same time remain hopeful:
this is the challenge, and -Knowledge- is the key!
Becoming aware of the bias does not shatter the illusion and its benefits, but protects us from unrealistic expectations.
In summary:
.80% of us have optimism bias
.is it good for us? ok, low expectations can be useful in some cases...
.but high expectations enhance wellbeing and act as a self-fulfilling prophecy
.just be aware and protect yourself from unrealistic optimism
.80% of us have optimism bias
.is it good for us? ok, low expectations can be useful in some cases...
.but high expectations enhance wellbeing and act as a self-fulfilling prophecy
.just be aware and protect yourself from unrealistic optimism
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