Nithin Kamath Profile picture
Jan 27 5 tweets 2 min read
A lot of messages asking me if one should exit FDs, Debt funds & buy the dip. This is what I am saying: Not every dip is like March 2020 where the bounce back is immediate. This time around, if things get worse, it may take a long time to recover. Nobody knows. 1/5
If stocks are down 30-40%+, it could be that something has fundamentally changed, even if there is no news about it out there. Markets are super-efficient in the world we live in today, if something seems too good to be true, it usually is. 2/5
When investing, the idea is to buy a stock that is strong and not which is weak. Assume there are two stocks, A & B both at Rs 100. Say A drops to Rs 50 & B remains at Rs 100, the odds of B going up is much higher. Sounds counterintuitive, but that is how markets work. 3/5
We sell winners and average down on losers—this is called disposition bias. This strategy can go horribly wrong. Ask the lakhs of investors who kept buying Yes Bank on its way down from Rs 400 to Rs 10 by exiting all their profitable investments. 4/5
zerodha.com/varsity/chapte…
While the stories of people creating wealth with concentrated bets in one or two stocks sound nice, the odds of that happening is one in a million.

The best way to invest for the long run is to diversify broadly and have enough cash equivalents for emergencies. 5/5

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More from @Nithin0dha

Dec 29, 2021
You need to get a CA to validate IT returns (ITR) or get a tax audit if profit when trading is< than 6% of turnover or if the turnover is> Rs 10 crores. This is an anomaly that needs to be fixed as the markets grow.
Here is why it should be fixed. It may be easy too. 1/11
If you trade stocks intraday, F&O, or trade equity delivery very actively, you need to declare any P&L as business income using ITR3. For those with a salary>2.5lk + trading business P&L, filing using ITR3 becomes mandatory even in losses. BTW, losses can be carried forward. 2/11
Exchanges share data with IT Dept. Failing to declare trading income(losses too) on ITR can lead to automated notices (exchange reports gross trading value) & penalties.
Considering the user growth last 18 months, number of notices are bound to go up exponentially next year 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Dec 18, 2021
The sharp drops in stock prices of listed new-age tech companies across the world is quite scary. If history is a guide, only a small % of them will maybe bounce back.
Companies when projecting growth should maybe prioritize lower volatility long term vs max short term gain 1/6
The networth of the core teams in most new-age businesses is tied to ESOPs & hence valuations.
Most, including the founders, suffer from anchoring bias. It doesn’t matter how large the notional profits on stock holding, if price hits a peak & goes down, it feels like a loss. 2/6
Teams being distracted by large changes in their networth, especially sharp drops, can't be good for team morale & focus, & by extension the business.
The more a company tries to talk price up in short term, the higher the odds of large drops & volatility in the long term. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Nov 27, 2021
The only reason why we do a valuation exercise at Zerodha every year is for our ESOP buyback.
I keep getting asked why are we valuing ourselves at
just $2Billion currently when smaller players are raising money at far higher valuations.
Here is why we're conservative👇 1/8
Some background: We don't promise ESOPs for anyone on our team. Frankly, we never thought we were building something that could become so valuable. So we never thought of ESOPs. But around 2017 when the business started growing, we created an ESOP scheme to share the success. 2/8
People who complete 1-year @zerodhaonline get ESOPs. This is to be sure if they are with us for the right reasons.
We tell everyone to think of the ESOP scheme as their retirement fund which will compound over the long term if we do well working together as a business. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Nov 22, 2021
Unlike the previous bull runs, there isn't a lot of leverage in the system this time. Stocks are mostly bought with full money upfront. So when there are drawdowns in the market on days like today, retail investors aren't forced to liquidate, which also increases volatility. 1/4
Credit goes to SEBI & also all of us new-age online brokers who haven't pushed customers to borrow and buy while placing orders. If platforms enabled greed by nudging users to borrow to buy more quantities, customers would ignore the risks of margin funding (MTF). 2/4
But given high customer acquisition costs for many brokers, what worries me is if someone launches a buy now pay later type of product for investing, it will end up pushing everyone else to start. Using this as a hook to generate revenue will not be right for the customers. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12, 2021
Why not IPO @zerodhaonline when you can potentially get ridiculous valuations?
Firstly, we think an IPO is the beginning & not the end. As soon as you have lakhs of conservative retail investors on your cap table, the obligations go up exponentially. 1/4
We are in a world where companies are getting priced to perfection based on all the future growth potential. For a stock to do well, you have to outperform.
As CEO, I dread to think how you can outperform the already really high expectations that growth companies have today 2/4
We have never set revenue or growth targets, always believed that if we can do what is right for the customer & if goddess of luck smiles, the rest will happen. Our core team dreads moving away from that philosophy to be in a chase all the time, which it will be after an IPO 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31, 2021
When you're candid in interviews, you run the risk of being quoted out of context with misleading headlines😬 One such headline was about the future of Zerodha, of us getting beaten by competition in 5 years. This was getting shared and a few people asked me about it. 1/4
I think when running a business or even trading, the odds of succeeding are much higher if you have made peace with the worst possible outcome. This has been one of my biggest life lessons. This helps me remain stoic and rational during volatility. 2/4
But this doesn’t mean we aren't competitive. We get up every day working to be better knowing that it will help our customers and maybe also help put distance on the competition. Most people think being aggressive & loud is being competitive, it isn't. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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