Thread by @walberque

Okay, here's all the links and analyses you need on the latest re:Russia's proposals. 1/13

After months of Russian forces building up Ukraine's borders, Russia gave the US and NATO two (deeply flawed) draft treaties on 17 Dec 21

mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…
mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…

Here is a quick analysis of the two Russian draft 2021 treaties, along with a comparison with their 2009 Russian draft treaty analogues for @IISS 2/13

iiss.org/blogs/analysis…

Yesterday (26 Jan), the US and NATO replied in writing to Russia’s draft proposals, but did not publish details. SecState Blinken and SecGen Stoltenberg held press conferences to describe the contents. 3/13

state.gov/secretary-anto…
nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…

Pundits weighed in quickly, with notable threads from @Cox_NukePol @meier_oliver and @james_acton32 :

https://twitter.com/Cox_NukePol/status/1486425862786502660

https://twitter.com/meier_oliver/status/1486624782930042880

https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1486439931027365892

As well as a poignant plea from the Pope. 4/13

https://twitter.com/Pontifex/status/1486315486274932737

US counter-proposal delivered in Moscow (Sullivan to Grushko), coordinated with NATO and shared with Congress.

kommersant.ru/doc/5182789

3 Elements:

1 Concerns about Russian activities
2 Evaluation of Russian concerns
3 US counter-proposals

And no compromise on Ukraine. 5/13

US proposals:

1 Reciprocal transparency of forces in Ukraine
2 Increased transparency of military exercises and deployments
3 Dialogue on ground-launched missiles in Europe
4 Follow-on to New START on all nuclear warheads

Blinken will meet in Moscow with Lavrov "in days". 6/13

According to @james_acton32 (quoting @WSJ), the US included offers for reciprocal "scaling back" of military exercises and talks on new rules on warships in the Black Sea; and Poland will offer Russia access to MD sites in exchange for missile transparency in Kaliningrad. 7/13

According to Blinken the US is providing more ammunition, anti-tank, and non-lethal assistance to Ukraine, bolstering their economy, coordinating additional sanctions and export controls against Russian, countering potentinal Russian gas supply cutoffs, and readying the NRF. 8/13

NATO’s reply has 3 ideas:

1 Ask Russia to reopen its NATO office and allow NATO to restore its Moscow office, and set up a civilian hotline like the SACEUR-Shoigu hotline
2 Russia withdraws from Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, adheres to the Decalogue, and settles conflicts. 9/13

And:

3 To discuss arms control ideas, including strengthening VDOC, NRC briefings on exercises and nuclear doctrine, work on Space and Cyber, INCSEAs, CBW commitments, and arms control for nuclear weapons and ground-based missiles, and include Ukr, Fin, Swe, Geo, EU, too. 10/13

Lavrov reacted swiftly (late on 26 Jan) with a presser:

mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…

@baklitskiy 's take on Lavrov:

https://twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1486641146294153216

Russia is going for a bizarre re-definition of “indivisibility of security”, demanding OSCE pS respond to Russia’s re-interpretation. 11/13

I can do a whole thread on indivisibility of security, but the term first appears in the foundation of NATO, ie, the security of Europe is not divisible from the US and Canada. The OSCE in 1999 combined indivisibile, comprehensive, and cooperative security, which is a mess. 12/13

But it reflected the spirit of the time (NRFA, ACFE, Istanbul Committments). The number of things Russia has done that violates its own purported definition of the term is mind-numbingly long, so...

Well, there you go! Any questions? We hear for you. 13/13

And, as I just found out, shared with Ukraine before being handed to Russia:

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1486680531169431555

@threadreaderapp unroll