Proud analyst for the Pacific Forum.
I can identify warhead types and rare b-sides with alacrity and alarming accuracy.
Jun 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I have some problems with this piece. The blog concludes that we have 2 days to act - but this is misleading at best. Also it says we don't know where the Iranian 60% stocks are as of 13th July - I assume it means 13 June - but it's still arbitrary. 1/6
nonproarchive.com/article/2025-0…x.com/james_acton32/…
The IAEA has not claimed that this material was under control for four years. Since Iran stopped extra JCPOA transparency on 16 Feb 2021, the IAEA can only estimate HEU based on Iranian estimates plus inspections (see para 26 and footnotes 27-33). 2/6
China on 12 July 2024 posted a proposed No First Use Treaty for the NPT PrepCom. Their first draft treaty was in 1994, although their declaration of a unilateral NFU policy came after their first nuclear test on 16 October 1964.
"the nuclear powers...undertake not to use nuclear weapons, neither to use them against non-nuclear countries and nuclear-free zones, nor against each other." 2/7
BREAKING NEWS! A big story by @maxseddon and @xtophercook for the @FT on leaked Russian documents, including a revealing briefing on Russia's naval non-strategic nuclear weapons (and conventional prompt strike) doctrine. Buckle up, this is a big one. 1/6
1) Russian doctrine for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons by the Russian Navy includes a much lower threshold for nuclear use than previously thought, and far lower than the Kremlin has claimed in the years since the end of the Cold War. 2/6
Jan 22, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Good article from @ElenaChernenko. Russia has rejected the June 2023 US offer for bilateral arms control talks without preconditions, instead demanding the US either gives up Ukraine support or move to multilateral/P5 formats. 1/4
kommersant.ru/doc/6456037 mid.ru/ru/press_servi…
This comes from a Lavrov presser summarizing 2023 Russian diplomacy on 18 Jan. As predicted by @HannaNotte Russia refuses to compartmentalize arms control as happened in the Cold War. Lavrov continues his bizarre claim that US inspectors would pass intelligence to Ukraine. 2/4
Jan 12, 2023 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
I hate under-sourced articles - I want to see South Korean President Yoon's actual remarks on nuclear weapons and the NPT that were handed to the Times, and the Thursday statement. Bah!
This particular thread began with the previous SCM in November. Would you like to know more?
I can already hear you saying "Yes, William, go FULL NERD!" Here we go...so, I will break it all down: the ROK and nuclear weapons - the latest developments, and I'm taking questions for the end. Ready?
Oct 25, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I stand by this interview, and wow, things have gotten...even more stupid. Russia sent a letter to the UN for a closed meeting to accuse Ukraine of preparing a false-flag dirty bomb, largely repeating the text that was posted on Telegram yesterday. 1/8
The original text was posted on Telegram by LTG Igor Kirillov, Director of Russia's CBRN Defenses, and excerpted in various news sources. The full text makes for...interesting reading, to be kind. To be unkind, it is impossibly dumb (with slides). 2/8
Okay, buckle up. The 30 NATO Ambassadors today signed the 2 Protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty on the Accession of the Kingdom of Sweden (KOS) and Republic of Finland (ROF). Here's an explainer. First, the the text, then the next steps in the US! 1/15
The Parties to the North Atlantic Treaty, signed at Washington on April 4, 1949,
Being satisfied that the security of the North Atlantic area will be enhanced by the accession of the ROF/KOS to that Treaty,
Agree as follows:
2/15
Jul 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
IT'S HAPPENING! Happy 4th of July, the day that the NAC, the chief decision-making body of NATO, has agreed by consensus to draft the Protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty on the Accession of the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden. 1/2
The wording is not a mystery - same text for each. Each will be 279 words, and read like this (North Macedonia's Protocol on Accession), with "Kingdom of Sweden" in one, and "Republic of Finland" in the other: 2/2 🇫🇮🇸🇪⚡️
Belarus' change to their constitution in Feb 22 (removing nuclear weapon-free and neutral status), and Lukashenko's Dec 21 plea for Russain nuclear weapons stationing have come to fruition. 1/6
On 23 June, Putin's website has published an interview with Lukashenko where Putin pledged to provide Belarus with nuclear-capable Iskandrs and to modify their Su-25s and train their crews to deliver nuclear weapons. 2/6
Reuters reporting that Russian nuclear forces are increasing alert levels. More to follow...
Putin ordered the nuclear forces to be put on special alert.
"Президент России Владимир Путин приказал привести силы сдерживания в особый режим боевого дежурства. Об этом Путин заявил на встрече с министром обороны Сергеем Шойгу и начальником Генерального"
Jan 27, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
Okay, here's all the links and analyses you need on the latest re:Russia's proposals. 1/13
After months of Russian forces building up Ukraine's borders, Russia gave the US and NATO two (deeply flawed) draft treaties on 17 Dec 21
mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol… mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…
Here is a quick analysis of the two Russian draft 2021 treaties, along with a comparison with their 2009 Russian draft treaty analogues for @IISS 2/13
