COVID-19 mortality rates are very much in line with overall, all-cause mortality rates by state with only a few major outliers, which appear to be seasonal and regional.
Here is a ratio of COVID-19 per capita deaths to 2019 all-cause per capita mortality grouped by BEA regions.
Here is a ratio of COVID-19 per capita deaths to 2019 all-cause per capita mortality grouped by BEA regions.
https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1486753293183373320
The formula is COVID-19 mortality, as measured by COVID-19 deaths in the Jan. 26 CDC update of provisional COVID-19 deaths by sex and age, divided by 2020 population estimates, multiplied by a factor of 3.3 to match 2019 all-cause mortality, divided by 2019 all-cause death rates.
In this chart, the ratio is multiplied by 100. So a 1.00 (or 100) means the ratio of COVID-19 deaths is perfectly in line with the rate of mortality for all causes in 2019.
Extreme geographic locations in the NE/NW are clear outliers, as are ones in the SW/border states.
Extreme geographic locations in the NE/NW are clear outliers, as are ones in the SW/border states.
In the states with greater than 100, it means the COVID-19 mortality is higher than nat'l average in proportion to the state's 2019 mortality.
Since overall mortality is a product of age and risk factors, it makes sense most states are following their own mortality trends.
Since overall mortality is a product of age and risk factors, it makes sense most states are following their own mortality trends.
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