Thread by @pseudotheos

Some thoughts and predictions on the future death of alt-L1s, and how the multi-chain thesis will work out this decade

🧵👇

Right now, the current asset landscape is cross-chain because of a few reasons:

1) ETH is expensive to use (for now)
2) Retail trading has picked up

Therefore, VCs see a clear way to craft a narrative towards new low-fee alt-L1s marketed towards new retail.

Cross chain bridges, being less secure, will get exploited for massive sums of money every few months.

Due to these exploits, assets (which originate on ETH) will venture out to alt-L1s less, dropping usage over time.

As rollups start to fully deploy, alt-L1 dominance will diminish as they have to compete with L2s. Some pullbacks will be incredibly harsh as VCs see the writing on the wall and sell before retail.

Some alt-L1s will pivot towards becoming L2s. Others will be fundamentally incompatible. Depending on network effects, these will either exist independently or become ghost chains.

The other independently issued chains will have to issue assets natively, like how USDC now deploys on both Ethereum and Solana.

We reach a fork here.

A) Either assets natively deploy and ETH + friends coexist

or

B) Asset providers will not bother with 2x developer time for 1.2x usage, cementing Ethereum as the de-facto L1 with L2s becoming the new race.