I college, I was taught and convinced that data analysis could do anything and that if you weren’t using it, it was because you weren’t smart enough to.
A decade later, I would say that besides throwing the datapoints up on a graph, it’s almost always useless.
1/n
The world is too complex to gain understanding from a regression or other complicated mathematical formula.
Even randomized control trials, which people who operate in the real world almost never have access to, are often bullshit.
Today, I think data analysis is mostly how people, namely academics and some professions, choose to communicate.
It’s sometimes useful, but also signaling to show that you’re part of a group.
If you want to be heard in that group, you must speak their language.
Where these people get into trouble is believing that data analysis is the only true way of figuring things out and that it can be used for everything.
That is a significant error which seems to afflict the fed and many of the spreadsheet jockeys on this app.
A brief conversation with someone with experience or a mechanical first principles understanding of how things work are way more powerful than data analysis in the real world. And the faster you realize that the less time you’ll waste and the more money you’ll make.
/end
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One of the dudes I play bball with is an engineer for ercot, the texas agency that is often blamed for the Feb 2021 freeze.
His explanation of last years freeze:
1. Nat gas power plants were not built for such cold temperatures and they broke, not the green wind turbines
1/n
2. There just was not enough power generation. Ercot’s job is to best use the power they are given by the power plants and there was not enough so they had to rotate it between the residential areas.
3. Depending on whether or not the city’s residential grids were shared with critical infrastructure that never loses power eg hosptials, fire, and other city stuff, their experiences were different
1. Not really because 9 times out of 10, a new bolt on company is a new supplier. Most products where you’re getting a benefit from container scale are already there when they sell to thrasio. Combining two factories products is…
inefficient and a headache. Like I said, weak returns to scale. The other problem is timing. You’ve got to have two shipments ready at the same time and they’ve got to fit together.
2. 3pl savings are very minimal because of huge assortment of product (headaches) and inability
to negotiate better pricing with FedEx ans ups because you’re using Amazon.
3. By and large the so called “mom and pop” business owner grinds way harder than the thrasio 9-to-5er and is probably more knowledgeable and smarter. Plus it’s easier for the mom-and-pop to blackhat
Figured it’d make sense for me to lay out my theory on controversial tweets because I feel like it’s 1) misunderstood 2) interesting to people (“why does he do this?”)
1. Sorry to disappoint you but I am not the second coming of @sweatystartup - I don’t know much about that guy
but I know enough to say that I think different. Also, Twitter/social media isn’t how I make money. I don’t tweet to increase my following. When you sell childrens toys to educator in particular, it’s probably not net profitable for me to tweet most of what I write
2. I tweet what I honestly believe. I get some stuff wrong and I sometimes change my mind. One of the great things about Twitter is that if I’m wrong and I tweet it I’m going to find out. I subject my thinking to criticism via Twitter for this reason. I end up long-term right!