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Jan 31 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Brian Arthur: "Complexity economics sees the economy as not necessarily in equilibrium, its decision makers (or agents) as not super-rational, the problems they face as not necessarily well-defined and the economy not as a perfectly humming machine."
nature.com/articles/s4225…
2/ "Complexity economics assumes that agents differ and that they have imperfect information about other agents. The resulting outcome may not be in equilibrium and may display patterns and emergent phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis." nature.com/articles/s4225…
3/ "Because assumptions are a widening of the neoclassical ones, complexity economics is neither a special case of equilibrium economics nor an addition to it. Complexity economics sees the economy not as mechanistic, static, timeless and perfect but as organically."
4/ "Economic complexity involves the use of machine learning and network techniques to predict and explain the economic trajectories. Measures of relatedness — which estimate the affinity between economies and activities — anticipate changes." nature.com/articles/s4225…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 31
Do food delivery companies that spend this much on customer acquisition have issues around product/market fit? Or are they trying to acquire scale economies and benefit from a positive feedback loop?

Subsidized goods or services aren't COGS, but instead are in-kind CAC.
Andy Rachleff: “You know you have product/market fit if your product grows exponentially with no marketing. That is only possible if you have huge word of mouth. Word of mouth is only possible if you have delighted your customer.”
Until a delivery business establishes superior liquidity, it is vulnerable. Part of liquidity is more delivery people available which is a function of more transaction volume. Density of transactions can generate positive feedback. You're at the mercy of your stupidest competitor
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 30
1/ "In the '73, '74 downturn, Rick Guerin was levered with margin loans. And the stock market went down almost 70% in those two years, and so he got margin calls out the yin-yang, and he sold his Berkshire at under $40 because he was levered." finance.yahoo.com/news/case-stud…
2/ "We got drubbed by the 1973 to 1974 crash, not in terms of true underlying value, but by quoted market value, as our publicly traded securities had to be marked down to below half of what they were really worth,’’ said Munger.
3/ "In 1974 and 1975, as confident as Buffett was, projecting out his future wealth from currently depressed point A to future point B, there were almost certainly times that a bit of fear rose in his throat too." Seth Klarman barrons.com/articles/SB918…
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 29
Someone suggested I do this:

My 93-year-old father just gave me permission to reveal a Griffin family secret: You create incredible value without any monetary cost, by being kind to people, being trustworthy, showing up for causes you believe in and standing up for what's right.
2/ "People ask me about differences between now and the internet bubble. If you weren't there it may seem hard to believe, but there is relatively less FOMO now than there was 1999. There is more money now with nowhere else to go than in 1999." August 2021
3/ It's rough out there. I have found comfort in companies that generate absolute dollar free cash flow at times like these. The actual dollar amount. Some stocks have a lot of free cash and some don't. November 23, 2021
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 29
1/ Capital allocation is not just the number one job of an investor but of anyone involved in any business. This is why a Michael Mauboussin essay is both a business mint and an investing mint. If Mentos is "the fresh maker" a Mauboussin essay is "the free cash flow maker." 😉
2/ "The net present value (NPV) test is a simple, appropriate, and classic way to determine whether management is living up to this responsibility. Passing the NPV test means that $1 invested in the business is worth more than $1 in the market." Mauboussin 25iq.com/2015/10/03/a-d…
3/ An operator of a business who punts on doing an NPV analysis because it is "too uncertain" isn't much of an operator. Pretending doesn't work. For example, charting or technical analysis isn't wise (or sane). Clayton Christensen on the right metric: deseret.com/platform/amp/2… Image
Read 6 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 23
1/ This thread is about "AMP IT UP" by Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman. It is a readable no-nonsense book written by a proven business operator. It won't take you long to read it. The book is modern in its format. It doesn't waste your time with a lot of fluff. Less is more.
2/ The set up: Anyone who writes a book deserves a respectful review. Being a published author requires both hard work and bravery. The author(s) deserve to have *their* book reviewed. Comments should not be about the reviewer, but rather about the ideas and writing in the book.
3/ There are sentences in AMP IT UP that jump out at me:

“Hire people ahead of their own curve."

"Be careful about what elevators we get into early in our careers.”

“No two companies are alike and just because another company is doing it, doesn’t make it right.”

I agree.
Read 9 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
Jan 22
1/ "I can't sell because because the Lucent stock I received for selling my company is down." He had loss aversion since he thought he was worth $7 billion but now it was $6 billion. He kept saying that all the way down. He couldn't treat the loss as sunk. infiniteloopspodcast.com/tren-griffin-w…
2/ "At the height of the great telecom bubble, Lucent Technologies’ stock was “as good as currency.” Arguably, it was better than that: Lucent stock could buy whatever the company wanted."

Lucent stock only escaped bankruptcy by selling to Alcatel. technologyreview.com/2005/02/01/231…
3/ The Eagles played for ~300 people at the Lucent launch party at the Dallas Four Seasons in 1996. Waiters served me and the other guests hors d'oeuvres and mixed drinks. I could walk up to the stage and have no one in front of me. Laser show followed after the concert. Hubris.
Read 4 tweets

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