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Jan 31 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
One misconception about Japan's political response to COVID is that it is a lovey-dovey response that's all about caring for the people. Nothing could be further from the truth
Notice how in this government video, they keep talking about business and economic practicalities. That's all they really care about, in a way that is quite brutal. The people don't even get access to free RATs or PCR testing.
The real difference in the JP govt response is that it is driven by a dominant neo-Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm, so unfashionable in the Anglosphere. It's a model that believes in nation-building through central investment in technologically based infrastructure
The end result is they give away thousands of free CO2 monitors to businesses and invest in clean-indoor air infrastructure as a business centred economic stimulus programme. If there is a benefit to citizens, it is indirect and structurally mediated
Keynesian macroeconomics is “demand-side economics”. That means you don't want to kill, maim, sicken and furlough workers and consumers in the economy by the millions. They are not considered disposable as they consume goods and services investopedia.com/ask/answers/04…
The difference between the COVID outcomes in the UK vs JP can thus be regarded as a difference in their respective dominant macroeconomic paradigms. The Anglosphere has been dominated by Classical supply-side macroeconomics for some decades—never mind that Keynes was a Briton
Cracks in the Classical paradigm first appeared with the GFC, which forced governments to intervene with corporate bailouts, stimulus packages, and the adoption of the Japanese practice of quantitative easing. COVID represents a big double whammy to rock that paradigm
Those who wish to read more about the unexpected resurgence of neo-Keynesianism after the GFC and COVID are directed to the writings of economic historian @adam_tooze theguardian.com/news/2021/sep/…
Two striking and highly noteworthy quotable passages from his Guardian article entitled “Has COVID ended the neoliberal era?” are as follows. Not long after that, the Australian government, shocked by its rediscovery of Keynesianism, hastily retreated. Death rates soared
@adam_tooze also has a new book out called “Shutdown” and the assault that it brought about on the dominant neoliberal classical economics of the Anglosphere. It is a sequel to “Crashed”, his book about the GFC amazon.com.au/Shutdown-Globa…
As a post-script, there's an “I told you so” aspect to this story. The Omicron wave caused business and consumer confidence to crash, crushing the “animal spirits of the market”—to paraphrase a famous quote from Keynes. The effect was worse than a lockdown

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More from @ToshiAkima

Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 29
Dräger X-plore 2100 Elastomeric Respirator Half Mask with P100 Filter. Comfortable with exceptional vocal clarity. Quick to don and doff. The Peppa Pig look may be polarising but if you can get over that it's a winner Image
The biggest con is the lack of exhalation valve filter, but I found an easy workaround for this. Cut a circular piece from a N95 or KF94 mask and place it inside on top of the exhalation port ImageImage
The mask is CDC/NIOSH and CE certified (EN 1827). This means it will has been tested by the CDC to ensure filtration capacity is as described. It is also AS/NZS 1716:2012 certified as an N95 respirator (but not TGA/ATRG approved for HCW use), though it is really more like an N99
Read 15 tweets
Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 23
The world economy is being kept alive and functional by the #ZeroCOVID economics and social policy of the Far East (JP, TW, SG, PRC). Without it, global supply chains and the world economy would just crumble and collapse tomorrow
For those who say there is a “cost” to #ZeroCOVID: well, yes it's that you have to go to work keeping to the economy running, and you don't get to chill out while you lounge around for eternity as you push up daisies
And true, no country has had ZERO cases of COVID so #ZeroCOVID doesn't exist. PRC probably exaggerates its successes too. #ZeroCOVID aims towards zero by getting the Reff <1 in exponential decline. To do otherwise is to “live with” exponential eruptions of death
Read 4 tweets
Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 23
I am sorry to say that clinicians don't know what evidence is. And YES, you ARE an idiot if you reply that RCTs are the pinnacle of scientific methodology. Nobody in aerospace safety or automobile safety uses RCTs. Einstein's theory of relativity has never been subjected to RCTs
There is no doubt about this: the idea that all science progresses through RCTs is a MASSIVE lie. If you showed this pyramid to physicists, they would laugh at you. In physics and engineering, the ability of your model to make correct predictions is considered more important
Because the biological sciences are primitive, we are forced into the crude empiricism of RCTs. But aerosol science is more about physics and engineering, where predictive mathematical modelling remains valid. It isn't necessary to be abjectly reduced to primitive empiricism
Read 10 tweets
Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 18
It looks like my prediction is on its way to coming true. But the example of S Africa suggests that the peak in deaths may be greatly delayed following the Omicron case numbers peaking
Well after the Omicron wave cases peaked, the South African deaths still continue to climb at a remarkable rate. This may well repeat elsewhere. It's possible that delayed deaths from non-pneumonitis causes are the driver of this
We know from previous variants that deaths in the year after recovery are increased. Could it be that this insidious “post-recovery” death is just an Omicron specific accelerated form of #longCOVID? theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
Read 5 tweets
Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 8
Japanese messaging. Top priority is correct masking. Keep it on while talking. No chin masking. Ensure gapless fit. Avoid speaking loudly in crowded, poorly ventilated spaces
The slogan in the lower third box that goes 「目指そうゼロ密!」 means "let's aim for zero transmission". It's a very #ZeroCOVID message. The majority (2/3) of the poster focuses on aerosol transmission
Actually, a more accurate translation is “let's aim for zero close contact”. Even more emphatic here. Eliminating the three forms of close contact: physical closeness, crowding, and closed spaces
Read 15 tweets
Dr Satoshi Akima Profile picture
Jan 7
Apparently, we are at the “nobody saw it coming” stage of idiocy now. You not only saw it coming, you absolutely wanted it to be that way. You want tens of thousands mass infected and countless dead. All for the good of the “economy”
We have doggedly repeated the dire warning that letting it rip will destroy the economy rather than save it. The destruction wrought by uncontrolled contagion on consumer and business confidence will wreak the economy, not save it, let alone save lives
Letting rip with death and destruction does nothing beneficial for the economy. Controlled intervention accompanied by support packages is far more helpful. But neoliberal anti-interventional macroeconomic dogma has been allowed to dominate management
Read 4 tweets

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