Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

Albertans, did you know that your risk of catching COVID in the *next month* is likely higher than it was for the entire Delta wave? New cases are projected to infect over 3/4 of a million more people by late Feb! Don't lower your shields yet. #ShieldsUp

To be clear, this is not a projection of confirmed cases, faced restricted testing. Some of these cases may be asymptomatic & may not be aware of their condition. Some may end up with Long-COVID after asymptomatic infection. Chart is to end of Jan, 3 mill, in a pop of 4.4 mill.

It is not safe to reopen with transmission so high, hospitals overwhelmed and surveillance all but cancelled. Wear the best mask you can, delay optional interactions if possible a few more weeks. Insist and clean, safe air.

I did this data analysis myself, & so I welcome legitimate reviews. Raw data from AHS, waves separated by minima of lowest active cases. Proportion of confirmed cases to actual cases during each wave based on estimates provided by CMOH Dr Hinshaw, based on seroprevalence testing.

Projection of the rest of Wave 5 cases extrapolates current wave 5 pattern back down over similar timeframe. Assumes no changes in restrictions, transmissibility, new variant dominance (aka Omicron BA.2).

With such limited testing & astronomical test positivity rates, objective confirmation of total cases was needed. Wastewater surveillance data aligned with the peak from PCR tests, confirming the general timing & scale of the peak. covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca
alberta.ca/stats/covid-19…

@GosiaGasperoPhD @PopAlberta @CMOH_Alberta @jvipondmd @MerlinofCanada
@threadreaderapp please unroll

Guess what percentage of Albertans will have been infected with SARS-CoV2 at least once by the end of Feb? (Hint:Look closely at the spreadsheet image, and consider the impact of reinfections on that number. More on that soon.)