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Jan 31 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Trump’s standing atop the GOP has been virtually untouchable for years now. But his grip on party is facing new strains.

My dive on polls, vaccine politics and endorsement blowback exposing signs of vulnerability —>
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…
A growing share of GOPers are IDing with party first, and Trump second, including in his usual base.

In Oct. 2020, 62% of non-college white Republicans ID’d themselves as Trump-first Republicans. That figure was down to 36% this month, in NBC poll.
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…
GOP pollster @PatrickRuffini: “It’s a strong attachment. It’s one that very likely would win a GOP primary today. But is it the same ironclad, monolithic, Soviet-like attachment that we saw when Donald Trump was the incumbent president? No, it is not.”
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…
Plus, more details on the @MorganOrtagus endorsement process and pushback. She and family met with Trump last Monday at Mar-a-Lago.

His endorsement came next evening, even though she is not yet a candidate in TN (and may not be)
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…
But betting against Trump's sway with GOP voters has been a losing proposition for more than half a decade — for pundits and Republican rivals.

He remains party's top fundraiser and most popular figure. He can still fill fairgrounds in January.
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…
One way to look at Trump's rhetoric/behavior is as a pol reading the room.

He didn't mention the word "vaccine" on Saturday.

He's poked at DeSantis.

And he swiped at Pence last night.
nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/…

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More from @ShaneGoldmacher

Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Jan 31
Starting a #campaignfinance thread for the 1/31 filings today...
The Alabama Patriots PAC, which is spending for Mike Durant, received $1 million in December from America's Promise, which in turn got: $500k from Jeffrey Chambers (TA Associates), $250k John Chambers (Cisco), $500k Kevin Taweel (Asirion) and others
Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), who is running for mayor of Los Angeles, stopped raising into her House account but still has $1.17 million cash on hand..,
Read 19 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Jan 29
NEW: After years of decrying "dark money," Democrats embraced such spending with fresh zeal in 2020 — outpacing Republicans in secret money by hundreds of millions of dollars.

An original analysis w/ @kenvogel for the NYT: nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/…
The topline findings: 15 of the most politically active nonprofits generally aligned with Democrats spent $1.5 billion+ in 2020 — compared to $900 million from s comparable list of 15 groups aligned with Rs.
nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/…
These are huge sums.

One Dem-aligned nonprofit, the Sixteen Thirty Fund, spent more in 2020 than the DNC itself.

But nonprofits do not abide by same transparency rules — though they can pay for similar activities: ads, polling, voter reg, legal fights.
nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/…
Read 4 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Jan 14
NEW: The FEC's general counsel recommended *in 2019* finding that 2016 Trump campaign and RNC violated excessive contribution rules via state-party pass-through scheme.

This is, I think, the first time this FEC document has come to light (it is now 2022!) fec.gov/files/legal/mu…
Using state parties as pass-throughs to avoid contribution limits is a bipartisan affair. Both the Trump campaign and Biden campaign did versions of this in 2020.

But this shows professional staff at FEC think it's a no-no even if commission hasn't cracked down.
Not sure why the document is out no (I've asked!), but the Wyoming Republican Party appears to have settled with FEC in 2021 for $52,000
Read 5 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Nov 9, 2021
BREAKING: NH Gov. Chris Sununu is NOT running for Senate in 2022.

He had been the Republican Party's top recruit.
Says governor is place where can be "most impactful," calls it a 24/7 job and the Senate is slower.

NRSC Chair Rick Scott and others had pressed hard for him to run.

Sununu had led Sen. Hassan (D-NH) in some early polling.
Sununu is instead running for reelection as governor
Read 6 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Aug 3, 2021
BREAKING: AG Tish James: "The independent investigation has concluded that Gov Andrew Cuomo sexually harassed multiple women"
She says he broke both state and federal law
“The evidence will be made available to the public,” James says.

James is now defending the credentials of the independent investigators:

More at NYT —>
nytimes.com/live/2021/08/0…
Read 16 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Aug 1, 2021
THREAD: I wanted to explain in detail why the Trump announcement that he raised $82 million in the first six months of 2021 was inaccurate, since this posted around 12 a.m.

There are still many wrong headlines about $82 million raised out there…

1/X nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/…
First, here is a screenshot of the inaccurate announcement, which explicitly says "his affiliated political committees raised nearly $82 Million during the period between January 1st and June 30th,"

The $102 million cash figure, fwiw, was spot on.

2/X
Overlapping Trump committees that transfer money make the math complicated. The 4 relevant committees:

— Trump Make America Great Again Committee (TMAGAC)
— Make America Great Again (MAGA) PAC
— Save America (SA) PAC
— Save America JFC

Let's start with TMAGAC...

3/X
Read 10 tweets

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