What does this all mean? In short, this is not good for No 10, at all. For the following reasons:
1) This most of all- take a step back. A senior civil servant has confirmed the police are investigating 12 potentially illegal events at heart of govt, incl. PM's own flat.
1) This most of all- take a step back. A senior civil servant has confirmed the police are investigating 12 potentially illegal events at heart of govt, incl. PM's own flat.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1488156307714674694
As Sue Gray makes clear, investigation does not mean that they will be found to be against the law or rule breaking but the fact that there are so many, that that implies it was a pattern, not a one-off, is clearly deeply uncomfortable for the Prime Minister and government.
2) SG makes clear she thinks No 10 and the heart of govt did not meet the standards they were expecting of the country. Politically, that's awful. It's also awful because PM has said again and again all guidance and rules were followed. How can those things cohere?
3) Remember in some ways the fixed penalty notices are a sideshow- this scandal was always most dangerous to PM politically with regards to whether he knowingly misled the Commons. There will now be more questions about what he said here.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1488163319869489152?s=20&t=cvqQixP18m9N5WQmLbT4vw
4) That isn't the only time PM has assured the Commons no rules were broken. Each of them will now have to be assessed in light of what SG has said, and ultimately, what she may say still.
5) Sue Gray also dimisses some of the excuses presented by No 10 and ministers hitherto. She makes clear lots of people were working hard during the pandemic but did what was being asked of them.
6) Gray talks about a "failures of leadership" across No 10. PM is at the top of that leadership tree.
7) This isn't it. No10 wanted this to be a a full stop, it's actually a massive ellipsis. SG makes it clear she isn't done and has more evidence. Impossible for No 10 to draw a line. PM probably has some time. But the cost is the sword of Damocles is hanging and is threatening.
As a side note, there can be little doubt Sue Gray has firmly established her own independence into this matter.
What Tory MPs will be considering is the fact Sue Gray was deeply constrained in what she could say and still seemed to say so much. What, they will be thinking, will she say when she can speak without restraint?
PM's performance in chamber was destabilising for him. He had to find a way of giving a sense of both contrition and pugnacity. He went heavy on the latter and not much on the former. Much of Tory old guard v uncomfortable with the Savile reference towards Starmer.
As one Conservative MP not entirely hostile to PM put it to me today: "It makes you despair. One of the central charges against him is that he's misled the House. Then he throws something out there where his opponents can say, look- he misled the House!"
Things may quieten for now. But today has raised yet more questions than answers and initially Downing St hoped it would be the end of the matter. While the police investigates it cannot be argued that this is trivial...
In other words this could well be a serious crisis deferred, not defused.
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