Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 1, 2022 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Lessons from the Titans is filled with observations on legendary industrial companies. These are some of my favorites.

“Their secrets are hardly secrets at all—continuous improvement, rigorous benchmarking, disciplined investment, principled leadership, solid business systems.” Image
“The reasons for failure and the formulas for success haven’t really changed at all. Whether it be 1950, 1980, or 2020, they are pretty much exactly the same.”
There's no silver bullet: sustainable success is simple but not easy.

The book emphasizes the compounding advantage of getting a lot of small things right.

“... three common drivers: a relentless discipline on costs, cash flow, and capital deployment.” Image
“The clearest lesson from our century-long database is that undisciplined operations don’t work. They don’t work for core operations ... They don’t work for acquisitions either. Managing by heroic CEO decisions and forecasts is a doomed strategy.”
Culture is key. Arrogance kills.

"Culture is an output: actions of leadership and incentives drilled into an organization over time.”

It is “encouraged from the top but is actually built from the bottom—on the factory floor or in the cubicles where work gets done."
After the implosion of GE (which tried to get one of the authors fired):
“We spend tremendous effort looking for signs of arrogance; it’s the most common attribute of failure, even rising above complacency, and those who succeed seem to find a way to encourage humility.”
Systems of continuous improvement, operational excellence, and discipline.

Continuous improvement leads to a compounding advantage.

“You can’t just copy the Danaher Business System; the very point of DBS is continuous improvement. ... it would already be an outdated version." Image
"However, the best practices are clear. Keep it simple: find what is critical to your organization’s success, and then measure and compensate around those metrics.” Image
“The essence of continuous improvement is collaboration: workers identify hiccups to be smoothed out"

For example: "Danaher believes that project management requires some form of visual aid, and that regular (but short) meetings should be held in front of the visual aid.” Image
“We’ve heard dozens of companies adapt the lingo of continuous improvement and even some of the techniques. Most fail to make durable progress. Making an actual system work takes years of disciplined implementation.”
Importance of field research:
“I arrived in Peoria, IL for a factory visit that showed how disorganized production can get when a rise in demand meets a poorly running system. … bins filled with components that should have been on bulldozers, but instead were labeled re-work.”
Looks can be deceiving when it comes to leadership.

Investors “favored leaders who played the game and looked the part … Cote favored hunting over golf. He drank soda and beer from a can and ate Kentucky Fried Chicken. He liked to ride his motorcycle and smoke cigars.” Image
Incentives can make all the difference.

At $TDG: “The people there work harder, sleep less, and make more money than at any other company I’ve ever encountered. ... typical line manager, you take home $250,000. That same product line manager at TransDigm can make $1 million.” Image
Great CFOs may be undervalued.

“The CFO job is underappreciated by a country mile in almost every great corporate story. Fifty years ago, the job was more bookkeeper than strategist, but today it’s about as complex as anything out there.” Image
"Failure often came down to lack of risk controls, lack of growth in free cash flow, and the inability to manage capital allocation overall. All issues heavily impacted at the CFO level."
I summarized what I learned here:

“Most companies we follow don’t get the first step right for starting compounding growth: good operations, founded in continuous improvement, that drive a widening gap versus competitors.”

neckar.substack.com/p/studying-gre…
And interviewed one of the book's authors, touching on companies like $DHR $DE $IR $HON $CAT $URI $AME

“You know, my job is a tricky one. You have to be arrogant enough to have an opinion, and humble enough to know you're probably wrong most of the time.”
neckar.substack.com/p/conversation…

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More from @FrederikNeckar

Sep 28, 2024
Nobody explains meditation like Seinfeld.

"It's like you have a cell phone and then somebody gives you the charger. Oh, I can get this thing up to a hundred anytime I want?!

"It doesn't feel like anything. Doesn't do anything. I don't get it. I don't understand it. But here's the difference: at 1pm that day, my head does not hit the desk like it used to. ... I sail through the day."
"The way I look at life, basically is it's exhausting. Being busy is exhausting. Doing nothing is exhausting. No matter what you do, it's exhausting.

Sleep is hit and miss, [transcendental meditation] is not. It's this thing that augments your need for rest.

"I would always say to the people that don't do it, I can't believe you stay up all day."
"A lot of stand up is analogies.
The phone charger is pretty tough to beat as an analogy because your phone charger never doesn't work.

And that's the great thing about TM. You never have to wonder. That's the big difference between sleep and TM. TM never doesn't work perfect."
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
What are your favorite pieces with reflections on investment success and failure or lessons from decades in markets?

A few that come to mind:
Mark Sellers: So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How is Your Writing?

"If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that's a structural advantage. That's a moat."

"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.

When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Very interesting new paper by @mjmauboussin on the corporate lifecycle.

Rather than go by age or size, the framework ties life cycle to cash flows.

Stages: Introduction > Growth > Maturity > Shake-out >Decline.

Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
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Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.

What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
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Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?

Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."

But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing." Image
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.

I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin ImageImage
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.

The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.

Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Read 5 tweets
May 24, 2023
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer. Image
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.

Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.

That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."
Read 10 tweets

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