Thread by @cm_energyintel

$XOM (out this morning w/ a strong earnings beat) says its capex will range from $21bn-$24bn this year -- at the midpoint, that would mark a 36% increase from 2021

2021 was always expected to be a significant trough in spending;
capex range this year sits w/I its med-term plans

Keeping its capex tight last year helped $XOM pay back essentially all of the debt it took out in 2020 (a very rough year for the major...)

$9bn paid back in Q4, $20bn paid back over the full year

$XOM began buybacks this quarter -- says that it started the year at an even pace to spread the $10bn over 24 months, but that has accelerated due to strong FY2021 results + robust oil prices

$XOM's structural cost savings will push above its $6bn goal for 2019-23, but acknowledges there is the "counterweight" of cost inflation. Woods says most has been mitigated to date and he anticipates "structural efficiencies" to continue to limit inflation effects

$XOM expects to start the year spending around the midpoint of this capex range and adjust from there. timing of major projects (including several downstream projects it recent restarted work on) will be the biggest factor in determining where it ultimately falls.

$XOM notes that "selective M&A" is among the tools it will consider using to upgrade its portfolio

Opportunities are being looked at across the value chain -- recent deals include a structural polymers company and a stake in a biojet firm

$XOM re: Permian -- production grew ~25% 2020 v 2021 and Woods says the expectation is to grow another ~25% this year

That would add around 117,00 boe/d

( $CVX guidance implies it will add ~52,000 boe/d)

Although $XOM is kicking off a $10bn buyback program, it will also pay down further debt this year and build up a bit more cash on the balance sheet -- it wants to use the current upcycle to build a more resilient balance sheet

(2019-20 weren't too long ago...)

Nice visual of $XOM's restructuring announced yesterday