Petronas CEO calls the current market crisis “absolute bedlam” and “chaos” #CERAWeek Cheniere’s Fusco: we process 7-7.5Bcf/d currently for LNG export. ‘We are maxed out.’ #CERAWeek

$XOM Darren Woods: industry coming together at #CERAWeek ‘united’ around two objectives: 1) meeting world’s energy needs 2) addressing climate change $XOM Woods: current events reinforce importance of developing diverse sources — points to Permian as development that has transformed energy map and improved energy security of US and world #CERAWeek

John Kerry: energy is ‘turbulent’ w/ regard to $ and supply in light of Russia-Ukraine crisis and the economic response. It’s going to be something ‘we’re going to have to live with for awhile’, but ‘we need to come together’ - calls this a ‘defining moment’ of century #CERAweek Kerry: the emissions off-ramp will be too steep post-2030 if not enough is done this decade to keep 1.5 degrees/net zero by 2050 in sight. (Hasn’t yet commented on how to balance this with still-real oil, gas demand and med-term energy security needs) #CERAWeek

There is a lot of confusion out there about US oil supply and whether/how it could respond to the current crisis.

Let’s try to set the record straight 🧵

#OOTT US shale is about the shortest cycle (I.e. fastest turnaround) new oil production out there. But it is NOT a switch that can be flipped. The industry is not sitting on tons of completed wells that can just be ‘turned on.’

$XOM (out this morning w/ a strong earnings beat) says its capex will range from $21bn-$24bn this year -- at the midpoint, that would mark a 36% increase from 2021

2021 was always expected to be a significant trough in spending;
capex range this year sits w/I its med-term plans Keeping its capex tight last year helped $XOM pay back essentially all of the debt it took out in 2020 (a very rough year for the major...)

$9bn paid back in Q4, $20bn paid back over the full year