Con el potencial de una nueva invasión de Rusia a Ucrania, ha habido muchos que en esta plataforma y en medios de comunicación han especulado con la capacidad de proyección y despliegue militar ruso en #Latinoamérica y el Caribe. Un 🧵 breve. Primero, la amenaza rusa de ...1/4
..desplegar efectivos y equipo militar en el continente es por decir lo menos, fanfarronería. Rusia -y Putin- típicamente ponen el tema en la mesa como una manera de justificar despliegue y presencia militar rusa en lo que Moscú considera es su esfera de influencia natural ..2/4
..y de equiparar peso ruso en su entorno inmediato con el peso estadounidense en el suyo. Segundo, lo que sí hay son amenazas no-militares rusas en el continente, la mayoría de ellas vinculadas a ciber-amenazas, desinformación y propaganda vía la penetración y aceptación de ..3/4
..RT en la región, que Moscú podría detonar como un frente de presión, ruido y distracción si las tensiones con EEUU en torno a Ucrania escalan en los próximos dias y semanas. 4/4

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More from @Arturo_Sarukhan

Feb 2
Un 🧵 preocupante y deprimente, pero que de todos modos es un aviso de lo que puede venir. La maquinaria política de Donald Trump ha comenzado el año con un fondo de guerra de más de $100 millones de dólares, lo que refuerza su estatus como el recaudador de fondos más ...1/10
..formidable del Partido Republicano, mientras se posiciona antes de las elecciones intermedias de noviembre y coquetea con la posibilidad de una nueva candidatura a la Casa Blanca en 2024. El equipo del expresidente dijo ayer por la noche que la recaudación de fondos ...2/10
..asociada con Trump recaudó unos $51 millones en la segunda mitad de 2021, terminando el año con alrededor de $122 millones.
Por ahora, esto ilustra -y se traduce en- su persistente dominio del GOP antes de las elecciones intermedias de noviembre, cuando el control de ...3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jan 31
This is an important, profound and must-read @nytimes piece by @ronenbergman and @MarkMazzettiNYT about the misuse of the Pegasus software by a series of governments around the globe, including #Mexico:👇🏽
nytimes.com/2022/01/28/mag….
However, some proper context is required, ...1/8
..at least in regards to Mexican foreign policy during the 2007-2012 period. During that time there never was a quid pro quo between #Mexico acquiring Pegasus to confront transnational criminal organizations and how Mexico voted at the UN -and at UN bodies- regarding ...2/8
..resolutions on Israel. Mexican foreign policy at that time was determined -albeit with important internal resistance from Foreign Ministry colleagues- to jettison a cookie-cutter approach that had prevailed in the Mexican Foreign Ministry for years on end when it came ..3/8
Read 8 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
A closing 🧵on #Mexico-US relations during 2021. From the outset of the Lopez Obrador Administration, the gravest danger lurking over the horizon was always going to be the president’s vision of an imperial presidency and the whittling away of the checks and balances and ...1/10
..autonomous institutions that a generation of Mexicans painstakingly spent more than three decades building to deepen and widen democracy. The president is now doubling down on that threat, revealing a deepening split in Mexico over the very nature of its democracy. 2/10
...
..
Regulators (telecoms or energy) and autonomous institutions (the Comptroller General’s Office and the independent National Electoral Institute and National Institute for Access to Information) have all been targeted -tarred and feathered from the presidential bully ...3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jun 16, 2021
🧵de política exterior. Y de nuevo -ahora con la erosión democrática y violación a derechos humanos en #Nicaragua- AMLO usa los principios constitucionales de política exterior como si fuesen luces intermitentes: ahora sí, ahora no, ahora sí, ahora no. Con su abstención en ..1/6
..la OEA, #México no solo se pone del lado de un régimen que erosiona los derechos humanos y lo que queda de la democracia en la #Nicaragua de Ortega. Merma la credibilidad y el peso diplomático de nuestro país con su lectura rancia de la no intervención. Y si de interpretar..2/6
..a rajatabla principios constitucionales se trata, ¿qué tal el que establece el respeto, la protección y promoción de los derechos humanos? Ese sí que lo ignoramos convenientemente, con #Nicaragua hoy -o #Venezuela para el caso. Y qué gran paradoja resulta que #México, ...3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jun 7, 2021
A 🧵with a quick take as @VP @KamalaHarris heads to #Mexico this evening. From the outset of the Lopez Obrador Administration, the gravest danger lurking over the horizon was always going to be the president’s vision of an imperial presidency and the whittling away of the ...1/8
..checks and balances and autonomous institutions that a generation of Mexicans painstakingly spent more than three decades building to deepen and widen democracy. The president is now doubling down on that threat, revealing a deepening split in #Mexico over the very nature ..2/8
..of its democracy. Regulators (telecoms or energy) and semi and autonomous institutions (the Comptroller General’s Office or the Central bank, National Electoral Institute and National Institute for Access to Information) have all been targeted -tarred and feathered from ...3/8
Read 8 tweets
May 25, 2021
What's the common thread between #Mexico's lack of capacity to ensure its international commitments on refugee and asylum policy and properly handle Central American transmigration, the recent US ban on shrimp exports from Mexico and today's FAA downgrading of Mexico's air ...1/4
..safety rating to Category 2? Besides how all these issues intersect with the #Mexico-US bilateral agenda, what connects them together is the canibalization and budgetary cuts that are eviscerating government agencies and bureaucratic capabilities and eroding the capacity ...2/4
..of Mexican State institutions. During his more than two years in office, President Lopez Obrador has sought to prune and purge the bureaucracy and weaken #Mexico’s institutions so that they cannot constrain him. But that also means he cannot rely on them, for example, to ...3/4
Read 4 tweets

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