Esther George @KansasCityFed: "$6.9 trillion holdings of federal agency and longer-term Treasury debt is depressing the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 150 basis points" -- I believe this misses a key point:
The market is a discounting mechanism, bringing the expected future into the present. And the Fed has telegraphed policy, emphasizing predictability. 2/
The market has responded accordingly. Since Dec 23rd:
10-year +28bps
30-year mortgage rate +50bps
3/
10-year +28bps
30-year mortgage rate +50bps
3/
Given that the Fed is telegraphing their policy moves – and that rates have increased substantially already -- it seems likely the effect size is currently smaller than the initial baseline effect. Coincidentally, I also see rates are now back to pre-pandemic levels. /end 
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