WSJ article today paints picture of what happens after ICE raids a new home construction site:

Building slows down, crews avoid the area, homes sit half-finished, and local suppliers lose sales. "Home are months behind schedule" at a site raided at least 6 times recently.

wsj.com/politics/polic…

Growth in remodeling and home improvement projects stalled out over the past year. I put together 5 charts from our surveys and research explaining why: 1) Fed tightening meant only a small number of homeowners are willing to tap home equity to pay for large remodeling projects.

#Illinois remodeler: "Rates have increased, which has weakened demand for home improvement projects for those who [obtain] a loan for their project."

Today's Home Depot $HD call gave a window into the current state of home improvement and remodeling consumer spending.

Here are 5 big-picture themes that capture the current state of remodeling & home improvement consumer spending that $HD execs highlighted🧵... Reminder, Home Depot $HD recently estimated they have a ~17% (+ growing) share of a $900B+ addressable market.

Their quarterly earnings are good way to monitor what CEO Ted Decker called the "tides" of remodeling & home improvement consumer spending.

“Housing is significantly affected by these higher rates.”
-Jay Powell today about the Fed’s impact on housing

Every month our team surveys 1,000+ agents across the US on what they're seeing in their local markets.

Short 🧵 on local housing markets from our monthly survey: #Houston, TX: “Home prices have most first-time home buyers priced out of home ownership. It's even worse with the higher interest rates decreasing what the buyers can qualify for.”

US Remodeler Index is out, 4 big themes this qtr: 1) Projects getting BIGGER. 2) Product/material lead times, labor shortages got worse. 3) Remodelers FLEXING pricing power to protect margin. 4) No homes to buy=more whole-home remodels. Commentary from remodelers here… 🧵 1/11 #Missouri Full-service Remodeler: "Delivery times are 32 weeks for my windows and 50 weeks for doors. Delivery delays have brought my projects to a halt and it will be early Q2 before we'll be able to start work again on substantial projects.” 2/11

Where is pricing power strongest in the residential remodeling space? Where is it weakest? A thread:
👇👇👇 That's one of the biggest questions this year, as consumers stare down the highest inflation in four decades. 2/

Esther George @KansasCityFed: "$6.9 trillion holdings of federal agency and longer-term Treasury debt is depressing the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 150 basis points" -- I believe this misses a key point: The market is a discounting mechanism, bringing the expected future into the present. And the Fed has telegraphed policy, emphasizing predictability. 2/