Thread by @smitagnair

REPORTING in Goa through an assembly term beginning 2017 helped me report and understand the state and its people.

This pandemic Goa became the nation’s post-card with everyone flying or driving down — to escape the isolation.

Everything is wonderful here: the people, paddy fields, the lunch thali, local neighbour who shares mankurad mangoes, the afternoon siesta and the late night gossip in a bar on the banks of river Mandovi.

Oh, and the sunsets and that bottled Feni.

Everything is wonderful, except it's messy politics. I am putting a news thread — as I analyse, interview and report on Goa politics.

Do give it a read.

Goa Elections 2022, a news thread.
Byline : Smita Nair

FIVE years since winning a majority (21 of 40 seats) for the first time in Goa State Assembly in 2012, BJP managed only 13 in 2017. 

Yet, by winter of 2021 they had 27 MLAS — a result of multiple defections.

The BIG question this polls on February 14: How many seats can BJP retain?

The 2017 polls gave BJP - 13 seats, Congress - 17, Maharashtra Gomantak Party (MGP) - 3, Goa Forward (GF) - 3, NCP - 1, Independents - 3

BJP, MGP, GF and Independents allied to form govt with support from one NCP MLA.

Over the course of the term, 13 Congress MLAs and 2 MLAs from BJP’s own ally MGP defected to join BJP.

The list of contenders for this tiny state’s 40 assembly seats has grown even longer this time.

In probably a record of sorts (of parties to voter ratio) 9 major parties will vie for 11,64,224 Goan electors’ love (and votes) this Valentine’s day.

While Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) hopes to make it to the house after failing once in 2017, TMC has turned its attention to Goa after retaining West Bengal.

Even as Shiv Sena tries to expand beyond Maharashtra, Goa’s own nativist outfit Revolutionary Goans has captured the imagination of local youth.

Each party has its own agenda and strategy to gain voters’ confidence. The level of acceptance they find will decide the break-up of Goa’s eighth legislative assembly.

LET’S begin with the Lotus in the House, the BJP.

On the back of a decade long anti-incumbency, BJP will contest all 40 seats on its own. ‘Winnability’ seems to have been the sole criteria in picking the 40 soldiers to battle “people’s anger”.

A collapsing economy, mismanagement during Covid, deaths due to shortage of Oxygen supply, scams in distribution of government jobs, mines shut since a decade, corruption are few of the reasons backing people’s anger.

If five years of anger (2012-17) equals 13 seats of 40, what fire will 10 years of anger produce? That’s what BJP is hoping to find and douse.

One traditional value the BJP has sacrificed in favour of ‘winnability’ is loyalty.

In Mandrem, Congress turncoat Dayanand Sopte has been preferred over Laxmikant Parsekar, an ex-CM and RSS loyalist who helped establish the party in Goa in the 1980s.

Sopte won the 2017 election garnering 59.85% votes against Parsekar’s 34.01% gaining the moniker of ‘giant killer’.

In the bye-election in 2019 — after he defected to BJP, he retained the seat though with a reduced vote share of 48%.

In the coastal constituency particularly affected by Covid pandemic, it remains to be seen what happens now that Parsekar has chosen to go independent.

In total, BJP has fielded 24 candidates who have in the past belonged to a different party or fought as independents against BJP candidates.

Which means in BJP’s own house, outsiders enjoy a majority.

While the party has been clinical – replacing several sitting MLAs “found weak in surveys” with fresh aspirants – those hard to replace have been retained irrespective of controversial antecedents.

Candidates with criminal background: Atanasio ‘Babush’ Monseratte, BJP's star candidate from Panaji, is accused of multiple crimes including rape and an armed attack on Panjim police station.

Monseratte has been fielded over Utpal Parrikar, the son of 3-time BJP CM and former Raksha Mantri Manohar Parrikar.

The Panaji seat, held by Parrikar for 22 years, was won by Monseratte, then with the Congress, in the bye-poll following the leader’s death in March 2019.

Milind Naik, BJP's Mormugao candidate is under probe on allegations of sexually harassing a woman while the Valpoi Candidate Vishwajit Rane was accused (ironically by Atanasio Monseratte) of a recruitment scam just 2 months ago.

BJP has also broken its much-advertised ‘one-family-one-ticket’ norm by fielding the wives of both Monseratte and Rane as 2 of their 3 female candidates.

The third, Janita, replaces her husband Pandurang Madkaikar in Cumbarjua constituency.

Two other leaders, Michael Lobo and Chandrakant Kavlekar were denied similar demands on the winnability criteria. Though both have denied they asked tickets for their wives, Lobo and his wife left for Congress; while Kavlekar’s wife has left the party to fight independently.

BJP’s “poaching spree” is not limited to just MLAs. 

Even as the party was rumoured to be in alliance talks with their ex-ally MGP, they managed to grab two candidates that the regional outfit had announced for the forthcoming elections.

Ironically, one of these candidates – Pravin Arlekar – has been brought in by BJP to replace Manohar Azgaokar who had himself defected from MGP to BJP as a legislator 3 years ago.

BJP goes into the elections with the strongest position in the legislative assembly. Will all the changes to personnel and 10 years of anti-incumbency it remains to be seen if the lotus continues to bloom.

Sadanand Tanavade, BJP Goa Party President tells me they are confident they will win.

NOW, lets look at CONGRESS

BJP’s primary opponent – the Congress – finds itself in a very different situation.

After winning 17 seats in the 2017 polls (5 more than BJP) Congress is currently left with only 2 legislators – ex - CMs Pratapsingh Rane (father of BJP’s Vishwajit) and Digambar Kamat.

How’s the rebuild going so far?

While the Congress fielded a mix of old and new faces in 2017 – fielding four ex-CMs and several multi-time MLAs – it has opted for a much fresher crop this time around.

Only 2 of Congress' 37 candidates have been party MLAs before, while 4 others have been MLAs with other parties. Nearly half its candidates are contesting their first assembly election.

As has often been the case, Congress seemed to drag its feet in preparing for the polls, being far out-campaigned by other parties. 

This is believed to have led to candidates, including Independent MLA Rohan Khaunte and Congress MLA Aleixo Lorenco to seek other options.

2-time Porvorim MLA Khaunte joined the BJP days after appearing to be headed to the Congress. 3-time Curtorim MLA Lourenco joined the TMC despite being a possible CM contender within the Congress.

Unlike previous occasions though, Congress has actually stuck to the principle of not re-admitting defectors, denying re-entry to any of the MLAs who left for BJP. 

It also denied re-entry to Lourenco who quit the TMC within a month of joining them.

However, Congress has been far more welcoming of leaders from other parties: Michael & Delilah Lobo, Carlos Almeida (all-BJP), Lavoo Mamledar (MGP), Elvis Gomes, Olencio Simoes (AAP), Avertano Furtado & Prasad Gaonkar (Independents who backed BJP) are in its candidate list.

Lobo is arguably the most significant of the new entrants. 

A 2-time MLA from Calangute, he was a minister in the outgoing BJP government and is believed to hold sway over at least 5 constituencies in North Goa’s Bardez taluka where Congress drew a blank in 2017.

IS Congress a state-wide force that it once was in Goa?

While its candidates placed in the top-2 spots in 34 of Goa’s 40 constituencies in 1999, they could do so in only 23 constituencies in 2017.

Congress, however, is arguably as strong as ever in constituencies where it has a presence.

Despite getting only 28% vote-share in 2017, the Congress won 17 seats – 4 more than the BJP (which got 32%) and only 4 fewer than it had in ‘99 (when Cong got 38%)

Buoyed by Michael Lobo’s entry in particular, Congress looks set to be BJP’s primary challenger once again. 

The question is, will it be left in the lurch like 5 years ago, or will it manage to reach the majority mark, with or without help from allies?

Girish Chodankar, Congress Party President tells me the party has “shown resolve and aggression on the streets” and he denies critics calling it a “party that continues to hurt itself by delayed decision making”.

LET’S go regional, first MGP.

Founded in the run up to a liberated Goa’s first elections, MGP ruled Goa for the first two decades of its existence and is the only party to have had a representative in every edition of the state assembly.

In recent years, the party has largely been controlled by the Dhavalikar brothers and its influence has been limited to the Hindu-dominated belt running from North West-South East Goa.

Despite failing to cross 3 seats in the assembly since the 1990s, MGP has often been a king-maker in the state.

Sudin Dhavalikar has been a minister for 16 of the last 20 years, under both BJP and Congress CMs, and has held the much-coveted PWD portfolio for 12 of them.

This time MGP is hoping to take advantage of the vacuum created by the dissatisfaction among BJP’s traditional voters due to mass induction of Congressmen in the saffron party.

MGP could stand (and hopes) to gain vote-share in constituencies like Mandrem and Ponda where BJP has fielded multi-time Congress MLAs on their ticket.

Much like the Congress, the MGP has also been steadfast about not re-admitting defectors. Manohar Azgaonkar was turned away upon reportedly approaching the Dhavlikar brothers after being denied the Pernem ticket by the BJP.

The MGP has also been quick to react to continued plucking of candidates by the BJP. Rajan Korgaonkar, a prominent local leader from Pernem, and Pravin Zantye, the sitting BJP MLA of Mayem, were brought in after MGP’s probable candidates joined BJP.

The MGP will contest only 13 seats after agreeing to a pre-poll alliance with new entrant TMC.

But few put it beyond them to put up their best tally since the 90s.

Deepak Dhavalikar, MGP Party President, tells me they expect their vote share will be less this time as against 22 candidates in 2017 — they are fielding only 13 candidates, but he is hoping people will vote for MLAs from MGP, choosing lions over lotus.

Goa Forward Party was formed in the run-up to the 2017 elections by the then-Independent MLA Vijai Sardesai with a largely anti-BJP narrative. Despite failing to strike an alliance with the Congress, the fledgling outfit managed to win 3 of the 4 seats it contested.

Within hours of the results being announced in 2017, Sardesai did a volte-face and announced support to a BJP-led government leading to heavy criticism from several supporters and resignation of Party President Prabhakar Timble.

Goa Forward was unceremoniously dropped from the government two years later, hours after BJP’s numbers were bolstered by 10 defecting Congress MLAs.

While the GFP, whose symbol is a coconut, is once again fighting on an anti-BJP plank, its reputation has been severely tarnished due to past association with the saffron party.

GFP has been further weakened by one of its legislators – Jayesh Salgaonkar – joining the BJP, and could manage to get only 3 seats in an alliance with Congress after protracted talks.

3 years after being appointed Goa’s Deputy CM, Vijay Sardesai faces a battle for his party’s survival.

But he looks determined to fight.

He has been one of the most active campaigners in the state, going door-to-door with Goa Forward as well as Congress candidates, imploring voters to stand behind ‘Team Goa’ and apologising for siding with the BJP 5 years ago.

Vijai knows Goans won’t forget, but he hopes they’ll forgive.

Vijai Sardesai, Party President, Goa Forward tells me the biggest issue is “unemployment and the manner in which government jobs are being sold by those in power”. He feels “pulling down a corrupt government” is the only way forward.

Political pundits are watching closely — while they may disagree on the finer points, everyone agrees that like 2017 elections, this time too it's BJP Vs the Rest, but the stakes have only gone higher, way higher!

Cleofato A Coutinho, Advocate and Political Commentator tells me this election is as exciting as it gets, and it’s all in the optics.

In a realigned Goan political landscape, many old friends have turned into fierce rivals.

Thankfully, at the end of the month filled with political bickering, Goans can still find solace in a dessert that continues to have no rival.

Other parties, another thread, soon.

Till then - Let’s all eat cake!

Leaving you with this lovely piece by @thatdoggonelady.

medium.com/but-first-food…

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@threadreaderapp could you please unroll.