Thread by @smitagnair

1. A news thread on #GoaElections2022 based on my interviews and reporting.

Now that we have talked about the political parties in the House — let’s look at the the challengers: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC).

https://twitter.com/smitagnair/status/1488860739381211147

2. Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have been projecting themselves as the challengers to the old political guard — fighting to grab the Goan voter’s attention with mammoth banners across the Goan landscape.

3. What are their strategies, what does their choice of leaders say —- and who are they going after — Congress or BJP? Seats or vote share?

4. AAP is contesting 39 seats and supporting one independent candidate. TMC is in alliance with the regional party Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party(MGP) and will contest 26 seats.

5. Backed by data crunching political strategists, both share a common goal: entering the state assembly: But are their approaches actually similar? 

Let’s discuss.

6. AAP has had a presence in Goa right since the party’s formation in 2012.
It has shown its presence in agitations and people’s protests — especially against coal imports and mega projects affecting the environment.

7. Despite managing to create a state-wide buzz and allocating significant resources to its campaign in Goa, the party failed to make a mark in the 2017 polls.


In its first attempt, the party got no seats and only 6% vote share. 38 of their 39 candidates lost their deposits.

8. While AAP was certainly able to grab the attention of the Goan voter in 2017, and looked like it could capitalise on BJP's anti-incumbency, its image as an 'outsider' and a newcomer party hurt its chances.

9. People chose Congress, a party they felt was more likely to topple BJP.

10. Royla Fernandes — AAP’s only candidate in 2017 who saved her deposit, — and Elvis Gomes the party’s then-CM candidate, have both joined Congress since. AAP has had to rebuild, looking among its cadre for new candidates, and also ‘importing’ leaders from other parties.

11. Valmiki Naik, who has been with Kejriwal since his India Against Corruption days, is one of only five candidates from 2017 to be nominated again.

Interestingly, one of his opponents in Panjim is Elvis Gomes, AAP's CM candidate in 2017, now contesting on a Congress ticket.

12. Over half of AAP’s candidates – including CM nominee Amit Palekar – will be contesting their first ever assembly poll, — some of them having joined AAP only in the run-up to these elections.

13. Unlike 2017, when AAP stayed away from leaders deserting other parties, it has been far more welcoming of them this time around.

AAP’s list includes 2 former BJP ministers and at least 10 others with past links to various parties.

14. AAP has often been accused of splitting anti-BJP votes in Goa and was perceived to be going after traditional Congress voters in 2017.

In three close-fought constituencies - Panaji, Vasco and Cortalim - the BJP’s winning margin was less than the number polled by AAP.

15. In Cortalim, for example, BJP's Alina Saldanha won by 512 votes while AAP's Olencio Simoes polled 2482 votes.

Interestingly, Saldanha is now contesting on the AAP ticket while Simoes is being fielded by the Congress.

16. Despite the constant churning of leaders over the last 5 years, AAP has had a constant presence on the ground - helping people and making noise in equal measure.

17. In the first year of the pandemic, AAP was able to mobilise quite a significant force - distributing medicines, oximeters and food to those quarantined or stranded.

18. Even as the government and most MLAs struggled to meet the needs of their people, AAP’s volunteers made their presence felt on the ground.

19. In mid-2021 though, as the pandemic seemed to be easing, AAP went into election mode.

Their poll campaign has taken some unexpected turns since then.

20. It started with large hoardings being put up in Goan fields and party posters pasted on walls across the state.

By October, the party had started making poll promises.

21. Its first two promises - free electricity units and unemployment allowance - were consistent with the 'Delhi Model' of welfare it assured. But the third promise made on November 1, stumped many Goans.

22. Kejriwal promised to send Goans on state-sponsored pilgrimages to Ayodhya, Vailankanni, Ajmer Sharif or Shirdi.

23. Even as political commentators and the general public were discussing the explicit use of religion in a poll promise, the party made another announcement - of a kind that had never been seen before in Goa's - and perhaps India’s - politics.

24. At a press meet on November 11, Manish Sisodia promised that the AAP would project a CM nominee from the Bhandari Samaj – a Bahujan caste that accounts for above 20 % of Goa’s population.

25/75 The Bhandari community is believed to have favoured the BJP since the 90s, but has reportedly been miffed with the party after Maratha leaders were preferred for the posts of CM and party chief.

26.While caste and religion does play an important role in selection of candidates and poll strategy, — no party in Goa has ever announced the caste of its CM candidate without actually naming them.

27. In 2017, AAP had projected a Catholic CM candidate in Elvis Gomes. In that case, however, Elvis happened to be the obvious choice among a bunch of first-time candidates.

28. One of Goa's most prominent public servants, he was the ideal face for the “good governance” plank on which AAP had fought.

29. Two months after announcing the caste of the CM face, AAP announced the nominee himself - Amit Palekar, a 46-year old criminal lawyer.

Palekar came into public consciousness last year when he filed cases against the BJP government for mismanagement of Covid cases.

30. In December, Palekar sat on a hunger-strike protesting a controversial house-construction by BJP MP Shaina NC in Old Goa’s heritage area.

31. Palekar’s mother Jyoti is an ex - Sarpanch and was the BJP Mahila Morcha president in St.Cruz constituency from which he will be contesting.

32. A study of AAP's list of candidates shows some interesting trends which may indicate a major shift in strategy from 5 years earlier.

33. Palekar is not the only AAP candidate with past connections to right-leaning parties. Two of party's candidates – Alina Saldanha and Mahadev Naik – are ex-BJP ministers while six others have been candidates or block coordinators for BJP or the MGP.

34. AAP also seems to be taking a rather radical approach to Goa’s religious equation.

35. In as many as 7 constituencies –Calangute, Aldona, Panaji, St.Cruz, St.Andre, Dabolim and Cuncolim– where both BJP and Congress have fielded a Christian candidate, AAP has gone for a Hindu face.

36. While Palekar has been fielded from St Cruz, in St Andre AAP is fielding Ramrao Wagh — brother of the late BJP legislator Vishnu Wagh. AAP’s Calangute nominee Sudesh Mayekar was a prominent BJP leader who joined AAP with his karyakartas in November 2021.

37. In Dabolim, AAP managed to attract Premanand Nanoskar, a prominent leader who placed second in both the 2012 and 2017 elections as an MGP candidate.

AAP’s Aldona candidate, Mahesh Satelkar, also put up a strong showing in 2017 on the MGP symbol.

38. AAP has fielded Satyavijay Naik and Vishwajit K. Rane in Sattari taluka’s Valpoi and Poriem.

Both of them have been the face of the BJP in the region for several years and had contested the 2012 and 2017 elections on the lotus symbol.

39. The region is a stronghold of Vishwajit P. Rane, who left Congress for BJP soon after the 2017 elections.

40. In probably AAP’s strongest statement so far —which would have also allowed them to woo traditional BJP voters—, both Arvind Kejriwal and Panaji candidate Valmiki Naik offered the party’s ticket to Utpal Parrikar after he was denied the BJP nomination.

41. While Utpal chose to contest as an independent with backing from the local RSS cadre, the offer (and Kejriwal’s praise for Utpal’s father Manohar Parrikar) gained much attention.

42. The question then: Is AAP casting a much wider net as compared to 2017, and going harder after BJPs core voter base? Is AAP offering a refuge for leaders dissatisfied with BJP and MGP as part of a larger strategy?

43. If they are, the approach may help AAP make inroads among certain new segments who otherwise favoured the BJP. But, will they also lose some of the votes gained last time to the Congress?

Will the gains outweigh the losses?  Only February 14 will tell.

44. Rahul Mhambre, Goa Convener for AAP tells me that unlike 2017 when AAP was new, in 2022 “change is visible”. He believes “betrayal” of Congress MLAs moving to BJP has “given AAP more advantage. People realised both BJP and Congress are together, it’s apparent now.”

45. Now, let’s talk about the “new dawn” that the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the new challenger, is promising.

46. After failed attempts to enter Goa's politics in 2012 and 2014 (it got < 2% votes on both occasions), TMC once again turned its attention to the tiny coastal state four months ago.

47. TMC’s re-entry into Goa was announced with a big bang when Congress MLA Luizinho Faleiro resigned to join the party.


An ex-CM, 7-time MLA and a close confidant of Sonia Gandhi, Faleiro has also spent several years as AICC observer in the North East.

48. While Faleiro was soon sent to the Rajya Sabha, TMC went on a massive advertising spree in the state.

In several cases two or even three identical large hoardings were displayed side-by-side, presumably to stop other parties from taking up advertising space.

49. Even as it was trying to get people's attention on the streets of Goa, TMC made a back-door entry into the State Assembly.

Churchill Alemao, NCP's sole legislator in the house, joined the TMC - making him their first MLA in Goa.

50/75. Alemao, who is part of the “new dawn” package, is a known party - hopper.

TMC is the fifth party he has represented in Goa Assembly.

51. While the TMC is attacking the BJP in most of its narrative, do the party’s actions on the ground indicate that it may actually be going after Congress’ vote share?

Is Goa the petri dish for their attempts to replace the grand old party nationally?

52. TMC seems to be primarily focusing on Congress bastions – only three of the 11 constituencies announced by the party in its first list were won by BJP in 2017.

Eight of its 11 candidates have previously been associated with the Congress or their allies Goa Forward.

53. In December, Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco, one of only three Congress MLAs left in the house resigned, and flew to Kolkata to join the TMC.

Less than a month later, Lourenco resigned from the TMC, citing backlash from his supporters.

54. At least seven of the TMC’s 23 candidates were with Congress earlier this election cycle while three others – Jagdish Bhobe, Kiran Kandolkar and his wife Kavita — had been announced as Goa Forward candidates before they finalised an alliance with the Congress.

55. In total, 14 of the 23 TMC candidates have been associated with INC, GF or NCP in the last 5 years.

The Congress has cited the continued poaching of its leaders by the TMC as a reason for turning down the latter’s late attempts for an alliance.

56. P Chidambaram, Congress Leader and AICC Senior Election Observer for Goa in a press meet on January 23, 2022

57. Barely four months old in Goa, — TMC itself has seen a spate of defections.

58. Lourenco’s exit after he was advertised as a party leader on colossal hoardings across the state has probably been the biggest blow to the TMC.


In Calangute, Joseph Sequeira, Congress candidate in 2017, joined the TMC, only to leave for the BJP 11 days later.

59. Yatish Naik, a young lawyer-activist and ex-Congress spokesperson who joined the TMC along with Faleiro, quit the party after his name was withheld in candidature lists despite being a founder member of Goa TMC.

60. Letters to party president, made public by Naik, state that the ‘kind of politics at play’ had left him ‘humiliated and dejected’

“Seeing the manner in which the party is functioning, I find no good reason to continue being a member of the Trinamool Congress”, he wrote.

61. On the other hand, Luizinho Faleiro was announced as the TMC candidate from Fatorda.

The ticket was subsequently given to Seoula Vas, with Faleiro claiming that he had decided to give an opportunity to a young female lawyer instead of contesting himself.

62. Other early ‘leaders’ announced by TMC in Goa – such as Leander Paes and Nafisa Ali – have not been seen or heard from in the political sphere since joining the party with much fanfare barely 3 months ago.

63. The internal power-struggle in the new-look Goa TMC - even before it contests its first election - has not been missed by the local press.

64. Questions have been asked about how people like Alemao and Luizinho —who first entered the house in the 80s and have been Chief Ministers — represent a “new start” for the state.

65. Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco, now an independent candidate, says that the “reality of TMC is different from what is projected outside”, a claim which TMC has dismissed.

66. Even as the TMC’s advertising blitzkrieg engulfs Goa and its teething problems play out in the media, the average Goan is left wondering about the party’s intentions.

67. Is the TMC here for the 6 % vote - share required to retain its status as a national party? Or does it have genuine long-term plans to be the BJP’s primary opposition in Goa? Or is it modelling itself as the new alternative nationally, replacing the Congress?

68. Both ruling and opposition parties have accused the TMC of being ‘political tourists’ and using Goa as a laboratory for political experiments.

69. Goans have historically made up their own mind, irrespective of the public narrative.

What they make of TMC will only be known when the votes are counted on March 11.

70. Former State Election Commissioner (Goa) @prabhakartimble tells me that while both AAP and TMC may promise novelty in governance and politics, he wonders if it’s just a case of old feni in a new bottle.

71. Prof. Om Prakash Misra, media in-charge of TMC, tells me that the party is not confining itself to the 2022 election, and says: “It’s not always good to ask why TMC is going after Congress, as no one asks Congress similar questions.”

72. @Kishor5776, Editor and Political Columnist tells me Goans are going into polls "in a state of insecurity" with employment as a big issue. He questions if the new political parties entering the fray, promising freebies are actually here to solve the problems.

73. @mishraonweb, a journalist based in New Delhi, having covered politics over two decades, says that Goa’s political outcome will tell a lot about the direction alliances will take in national front.

74. Lots of politics? A respite needed?

As new contenders vie for a slice for Goa’s political cake, let’s read this beautiful piece by — @mayabhushan

outlookindia.com/magazine/story…

75/75 That's it for now. Another news thread, soon.

@threadreaderapp Please unroll.