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Alina Chan Profile picture
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Feb 2 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
New #OriginOfCovid podcast on the @NakedScientists

The search for the origin of Covid-19 has gone on for 2 years. No sign of an animal source or a SARS2 precursor in the wildlife trade.

This is in stark contrast to the evidence quickly found for SARS1.
thenakedscientists.com/podcasts/naked…
@NakedScientists Despite encountering a SARS-like virus for the 1st time and despite the much less advanced technology and expertise at the time, Chinese scientists with zero external help were able to quickly track down animal sources of SARS1 in 2003.

2 months after first isolating the virus.
@NakedScientists It can take a very very long time to track down the proximal origin of viruses if the outbreak happens in the middle of nowhere and experts are only alerted to the outbreak months or years later. However, this is not the case for SARS-CoV-2.
Some experts today are confused. They can't tell the difference between the proximal origin of a virus vs its ancestral origin.

They keep saying it took years to find the ancestral bat origin of SARS1 and that the bats were in a different province from the outbreak.
To help them and others who are not familiar with the origin tracking of SARS1, @mattwridley & I wrote our book that clearly explains the difference between proximal vs ancestral origins, detailing the evidence for a zoonotic origin of SARS1 but not SARS2.
harpercollins.com/products/viral…
If you don't have the book yet, I've also written a medium post about this.
I'm happy to debate any or all of the Proximal Origin authors live to help clarify this issue for them.
This would help to prevent against post-interview sniping since they can directly confront me if they think any of my arguments need more substantiation.

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More from @Ayjchan

Alina Chan Profile picture
Feb 4
Telegraph reports Jeremy Farrar, Wellcome Trust director, said the lab leak theory ruined international co-operation and shut the door on identifying animal origins..

Because when you're accused of a lab leak, you hide evidence of a natural #OriginOfCovid
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/0…
Farrar added: “If we now focus only on the lab side of this and we ignore the natural side, then we will miss the emergence of new pathogens which could be so disruptive to humanity.”

Not sure if Farrar was lucid in the past 2 years but the lab side was the side ignored.
Look at these monies invested into new centers for research in emerging infectious diseases!

Is there something equivalent for centers for research in preventing lab-based outbreaks?
niaid.nih.gov/news-events/ni…
Read 14 tweets
Alina Chan Profile picture
Feb 3
2 years post-pandemic I think we can largely agree on the following regarding #OriginOfCovid:

1. No direct evidence for or against any particular origin hypothesis has been found.

2. Likely or not, lab origin is plausible & should be investigated, not ruled out prematurely.
And hopefully also:

3. Regardless of whether #OriginOfCovid was natural or lab-related, we need to immediately develop and enforce new regulation, with measurable and publicly reported outcomes, to make risky virus research way more transparent and safer.
Scientists arguing over whether it's a 5% or 50% chance that Covid-19 came from a lab, instead of calling for an investigation + new regulation, are missing the point that the scientific community should already be acting to reduce that % chance of a lab-based pandemic down to 0.
Read 6 tweets
Alina Chan Profile picture
Feb 2
Scientists (and journalists), if you're afraid the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis will inflame racism, just say so. And explain why a lab accident has nothing to do with race.

Don't say that "science" says a lab #OriginOfCovid is a conspiracy theory. This politicizes science.
The moment our public figures and pundits (and even celebrities) start debating when it is acceptable to politicize science and, more importantly, who can politicize science, public trust in science is gone.
Hearing that some scientists and journalists might've cast the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis as a conspiracy theory to fight racism, and not because of actual science, makes me mad. As a scientist, as an asian person, and as a human being.
Read 4 tweets
Alina Chan Profile picture
Feb 2
For a criticism of the substance of Proximal Origin, please see my medium post on their 2021 critical review, which is a more updated comprehensive version of their argument for a natural #OriginOfCovid:
ayjchan.medium.com/a-response-to-…

For a criticism of the ethics of Proximal Origin...
I've laid out ad nauseam the problems with Proximal Origin - not only their scientific content - but especially the fact that they obscured key contributors to the paper and thereby their conflicts of interests on this topic.

We know now that at least one of the leaders/advisors of the paper had hoped Proximal Origin would put down the 'destructive conspiracy' that was an accidental lab escape #OriginOfCovid
Read 8 tweets
Alina Chan Profile picture
Jan 31
The stance of prominent natural #OriginOfCovid proponents:

Early 2020 - lab origin is a conspiracy theory, lab manipulation can be ruled out

Late 2020 - lab origin possible not plausible

2021 - lab origin plausible/should be investigated but not as likely as natural origin
My stance since early 2020:
Both natural and lab #OriginOfCovid plausible and should be investigated.

However, in late 2021, when more info emerged about research in Wuhan, my judgment is that the evidence now points more strongly towards a lab origin.
The one thing that has stayed constant over the past 2 years is natural origin proponents (scientists and journalists) accusing me of being a conspiracy theorist and spreading misinformation despite their own views slowly evolving over time to meet my stance.
Read 6 tweets
Alina Chan Profile picture
Jan 28
One recent study reports the discovery of MERS-like viruses that use the ACE2 receptor like some SARS-like viruses.

Pre-covid, I would've thought it was neat.

Post-covid, all I can think of is that some scientist out there might try to make a hybrid of MERS- and SARS-like CoVs.
As a scientist, you really hope that -all- other scientists will have learnt from this pandemic not to try crazy **** that could potentially generate a pandemic pathogen or bring one from nature into urban centers.

But academia is like the Wild West.
Don't forget, in 2018/2019, scientists unintentionally created chimeric SARS-like viruses with enhanced pathogenicity in humanized mice and intentionally did more of the same work with human pathogen MERS, in a city of 11 million + international flights.
theintercept.com/2021/10/21/vir…
Read 5 tweets

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