A thread 🧵on how much retail investors (individuals) dominate daily investing in the markets in India, from the NSE Pulse: static.nseindia.com//s3fs-public/i…
They're 41% of the stock market transactions - down from 45% in 2020-21. Still, massive.
Individuals are 29% of index futures - a big drop from 39% in FY 21 and give way to brokers (PRO).
They give way to FIIs and PRO in the stock futures segment, down to just 19% in FY22 (which is April 2021 to March 2022)
Clearly, those straddle and strangle videos are working - individuals are more than 1/3rd the index option market. FIIs said goodbye, and brokers also love this market. This is a source of worry - it's also the most leveraged segment (indexes have low IVs, so leverage is high)
Individuals love them stock options too, and together with brokers prop accounts, are over 80% of the market.
But none of this means they hold stocks.
🕴️♂️Promoters own 51% of stocks.
🤵 FIIs own 21%!
💼Mutual funds/Insurers 15%
🥷Retail investors 9.3%
(Rest is others)
FIIs own more than Mutual funds+Retail investors added up. Very different from the trading data where Retail investors is more than double of FIIs+Mutual Funds.
But might be changing. Here's mutual fund SIPs every month:
Bad news on the inflation front. 6.21%! Food inflation and personal services has gone bonkers. This is quite deep and we should probably not expect a rate cut unless this moderates quickly.
The difference between last year's numbers and this years is growing - that's what has caused the rise. Very steep.
Even Core CPI (without fuel and food) seems to be rising, through it's still less than 4%. Trend matters more than the numbers.
RBI has increased its balance sheet size enormously, to 72 lakh crores. Let's look at it in a 🧵, because this has an impact on inflation going forward.
Balance sheet growth is now at an extreme! 13% and increasing, and we haven't seen this level since covid!
Remember RBI kept saying they were in a state of "withdrawal of accomodation". This is not a withdrawal. This is accomodation up the wazoo.
The problem is this: When there is growth, if the RBI increases its balance sheet, we see inflation with a lag.
The boring stuff: Options to be paid upfront
Option premiums have to be paid by options buyers. Sounds obvious, but currently, intraday, the exchanges just block the broker's collateral for options bought, which therefore allows one person to effectively buy and sell intraday using another person's collateral. This must be a few brokers that provided this facility to allow mad intraday options buy positions. From Feb 2025, this won't happen - clients will have to pay up from their money for such purchases.
No Calendar spread on expiry day: You can sell an option on expiry day and buy a futures or options for a later expiry (like sell weeklies, keep a monthly buy on a different strike or so)
This provides a "calendar spread" benefit that reduces margins by as much as 50%. This lower margin allows a person with X lakh rupees in margin to take 2 times the position as he would without the calendar spread benefit. And SEBI doesn't like it. So they've removed the spread benefit only for expiry day (if one leg of any spread is expiring that very day only)
This is not a bad idea, as there was a large amount of retail scalping happening on daily options expiries, especially selling straddles. There is systemic risk in case the offsetting calendar option doesn't move anywhere close to the expiring one (can happen in case of sudden spikes) - which makes sense on expiry day because max trading happens there.
I had demonstrated the calendar spread impact here:
Intraday monitoring of position limits: At a broker level you have be less than some percentage of all OI etc. This was monitored end of day.
But obviously mad trading happens on expiry day for options and the OI will expand considerably due to massive participation, but all of it intraday.
To therefore ensure that one broker doesn't breach the limits, SEBI says exchanges have to monitor the limits intraday (4 times a day)
This means that if a broker hits limits, you can't do fresh trades and can only close existing ones until the broker level OI is less than the limits allowed.
Good, for systemic risk. Impact wise I don't know how bad this is, but if SEBI had a full note on it, it must be serious.
SEBI has a new research paper on IPOs - very interesting set of data that I'll highlight in this thread.
38.3% of all allotted investors are in Gujarat! Then MH, then RJ. Rajasthan? And it's even greater for non-institutional investors (HNIs)!
Most IPO accounts were opened recently, which makes sense because of the increase in the number of brokers and the ability to apply easier online through some of them.
So when do people sell? HNIs sell 63% of their allotments within a week (makes sense, most of this was leveraged applications)
Institutions (QIB) sells about 25% in a month, and retail sells about half in a month.