Thread by @DavidHenigUK

A new phase in difficulties over the Northern Ireland protocol in which a DUP Stormont minister instructs his officials to stop enforcing an international treaty. Impossible to know what happens next, if these continue or not, or how the EU responds. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

As we can see from events in Russia / Ukraine, there is no enforcement power in international law if one party decides to breach treaties. However, we also know that it is normally the larger powers that have more scope for breach than smaller ones.

Expect a strong reaction from the US and the EU if the UK fails to enforce the Northern Ireland protocol. At a time when the US wishes to focus attention on Russia / Ukraine, such a move would not be seen in a positive light. (see e.g. Suez / Hungary)

Reasonable to assume in normal circumstances the UK government would overrule the Northern Ireland executive. But this can't be assumed with the protocol. Busy evening for some folk I suspect.

https://twitter.com/Deebhoy/status/1488937897097142275

This incidentally is the exact equivalent of the time the EU threatened to override the Northern Ireland protocol over vaccine supplies. That lasted only a few hours. Will the DUP threat last any longer?

Suffice to say that right now the UK failing to enforce an international treaty would be widely seen as an act of the grossest stupidity / parochialism and undo all the good impressions we have given over our response to Russia / Ukraine. Your move, UK government.

Irish government pretty blunt, as will be the EU (and the US). What response from the UK government?

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1488941440772284419

The view of many in the EU is that the UK government is colluding with the DUP to break the Northern Ireland protocol. The Suez parallels (UK colluding with Israel while the Soviets invaded Hungary) are inevitable.

https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1488942811743502340

UK government is also believed by many to be ignoring entirely the nationalist and non-aligned communities in Northern Ireland, and only responding to the DUP. This is not a good basis for political stability.

Northern Ireland protocol threats might all yet be resolved this evening at least for the short term, like the EU's threat of almost exactly a year ago, but not a great moment for the UK

UK government says devolved authorities do not have to follow international law. An extraordinary and ridiculous statement, but one the Scottish government for one may well be particularly interested in.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1488964725572612098?s=20&t=FVGpu7MyizjvOBe_tI4G9A

Collusion will be assumed. But that isn't the main point, which is that the UK government is tonight saying that international law and treaties are optional. Suffice to say that will be widely noticed.

https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1488989640870739978

This would seriously worry a serious government that was interested in peace in Northern Ireland.

https://twitter.com/unionist_voice/status/1488942954211430408

What happens next hard to tell. Unclear if civil servants have to follow an order to break domestic and international law. Unclear how EU and US will respond. Nationalist and non-aligned communities will see UK government as only caring for one side. None of this is positive.

It is increasingly clear that there needs to be a renewed political process to resolve issues around Brexit, which builds on the Good Friday Agreement, and that the Protocol structures are not sufficient. But hard to see the trust and goodwill for that right now.

Would also be very interested in the diplomatic traffic tonight from Dublin to DC and back to London. At a time when the west was starting to unite over Russia, a renewed schism between London and Brussels will not go down well in the US.

Legally the UK government can intervene to ensure the Northern Ireland Executive respects international treaties signed by the UK.

https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1488996779278450692

Also a good question. And an important one - the UK government signed an international treaty against DUP opposition but now says that opposition must overrule the international treaty, and the DUP is not a negotiator but has implementation power.

https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1488994888419094532

The UK government has rarely acted in good faith with regard to the Northern Ireland protocol. And while the EU approach has had faults throughout as well, these are not of the same order, and often relate to the UK's lack of serious engagement.

Let us see what tomorrow brings. But as of tonight relations between UK and EU are once again under strain, the UK's reputation as a lawful actor in the balance, and Northern Ireland politics even more difficult. Not a good few hours for anyone.

Postscript to last night's events - looks like nothing has yet changed on the ground. Good. But the UK government have once again demonstrated their contempt for international law, not a good look.

https://twitter.com/ImSaraNeill/status/1489141570595082242

Presumably based at least in part on what has or hasn't changed this morning in Northern Ireland. Struggle to see either the UK government or EU having a clear workable strategy on protocol resolution

https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1489159676738609153

It is also a statement of fact that it is the UK government which make international law commitments as to the nature and extent of those SPS checks. And on the UK if they are broken, not on the devolved government.

https://twitter.com/BrandonLewis/status/1489158630427537409

And on we go. The crisis of Northern Ireland and Brexit coming to a new peak, two years after the Protocol was signed and Julian Smith as NI Secretary delivered the New Decade New Approach agreement. And was then sacked for honesty and competence.

https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1489163850066845701

The UK government could have chosen to build on January 2020 agreements, would have been difficult, but such is politics in Northern Ireland. Instead it chose to lie about the implications of the Protocol, and then seek to reverse it, blaming the EU, to growing EU and US anger.

A disgracefully cavalier approach to Northern Ireland peace from the UK government, treating it just like a game as the Prime Minister does with everything else. Underpinned by constant attacks on the EU and even US for not agreeing with us.

I don't like the Protocol, I didn't like the original Northern Ireland backstop upon which it was based. It wasn't based upon cross community consent. But Boris Johnson signed it, his MPs voted for it, unlike the DUP, to get Brexit done and win an election.

Ultimately there is no power to stop countries signing agreements in bad faith and then rejecting them because they are no longer politically useful. But expect that to have consequences domestically and internationally.

Has Boris Johnson at any point taken responsibility for signing the Northern Ireland Protocol?

So, political posture from DUP and Government, without impact on the ground? Deepening the mess overall, but if meant to make an impact on EU negotiations, I doubt it will. A new start is needed (paper out early next week, promise...)

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1489169896084807686

Looks like the UK government is backtracking on Northern Ireland checks, not surprisingly. They didn't think it through. Again.

https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1489199206099304453