Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 2, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Levelling Up thoughts from earlier

v interesting thing here acknowledgement of one of worst records of major economies on regional inequality, and in fact become worse in recent years

But can entrenched economic geography change without lots of spend?

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
This is from the White Paper - UK worst of G7 nations for regional inequality as measured by ratio of richest fifth of council areas to poorest fifth - and thats got worse over past decade in the UK, but in Germany, Belgium, Japan, Spain, Portugal, gap has closed…
This is a related chart from @NIESRorg
… UK inter regional inequality declining last century before going into reverse since 1990s… whereas Germany closes the east-west gap in same time spectacularly…

researchgate.net/profile/Andre-…
poor productivity record of UK “core cities” when compared to average…

in UK 10 biggest cities materially less productive than average, compared to France, Spain, NL, Italy etc.

But also in Germany Japan, Korea, those cities are actually more productive than average…
In fact Germany’s core cities are as far above the national average of economic output per worker, as the UK’s are below it… interesting though that UK political geography focusses on towns…
Chicken or egg?

Only 7 of the UK’s 41 subregions reach OECD average of spend on research and development of 2.4%…

The first three bars below have more than half total R&D spend, though this might be partially a tax credit HQ effect
Mobility of workers between regions, esp with maximum GCSE qualifications fell over past two decade from just under 25% to 15%
And for those with degrees from 17% to 10%…
Theories? A8 effect?
Also surprised that in the Levelling Up paper there is no mention I can see of the post Covid change to office use/ home working as a unique opportunity to help change economic geography, spread high paid jobs around the country… etc. would seem to be a golden opportunity.

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More from @faisalislam

Apr 8
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for Image
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…

Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.

whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 4
👀

President just shared a video on Truth Social saying “Trump
Is purposely CRASHING the market” in order to lower US Treasury yields and the dollar.

The Mar A Lago theory I wrote about two months ago, written by his chief adviser that said tariff chaos would lead to $ deal Image
Here’s the video…

Dow down another 1000 points…

Obviously RT are not endorsements but why is the President choosing to share this stuff? And if you are another country seeing this, how do you negotiate with this?
Great to see the World Cup* trophy on this historic trade war document…

* the one being shared with Mexico and Canada Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 30
👀 From Navarro’s numbers auto tariffs will raise $100bn a year (on $240bn imports) can replicate this calculation by assuming all imports hit by 25% and then US manufactured cars taxed about half that to reflect foreign content…

No exemptions tho…

…that assumes no behavioural change.

Note: will be a lot of behavioural change in supply and demand.

also says tariffs in general will raise $600bn a year of $6 trillion over a decade.

As total goods imports are only $3 trillion a year… “Liberation Day” equivalent of 20% universal tariff??
👀

Indeed Washington Posts chief Econ writer reports President instincts are to go bigger on “Liberation Day” … are we underpricing the return of the universal tariff? It would explain the otherwise inexplicable Navarro numbers this morning,..

x.com/jstein_wapo/st… x.com/jstein_wapo/st…
Read 10 tweets
Dec 2, 2024
NEW

Might remember I cornered Rwandan President Paul Kagame in January and asked if UK would get money back if no migrants were transferred to Rwanda… answer revealed today: Govt paid £715m so far until June of this year

“not recoverable under the terms of the Treaty” Image
Image
Image
terms of Rwanda deal are quite something…

In addition to £715m already paid, Treaty another £100m is due (will it be paid?)

also envisaged £120m bonus after 300 refugees “transferred”. And £20k per person payment.

And then further £150k per migrant payment over 5 years Image
IF a relocated migrant then relocated from Rwanda, UK government would then pay Rwanda £10k for that onward relocation (instead of the last payments above) Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 18, 2024
NEW

Treasury effectively confirms debt rule loosening, by announcing its new “guardrails” to channel capital spending goes to a 10 year pipeline of major projects that generate economic returns that will help “depoliticise infrastructure”

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…
Their view is independent accountable bodies, either new or given new powers will set & implement a 10 year infrastructure strategy integrated with 2 year spending reviews, and audit this, and assess value for money ensuring capital investment generates clear long term returns…
Ministers now openly call the impact of the Sunak debt rule “a mistake”, that it constrained some much needed public infrastructure investment, while not stopping bad investment in failing projects… capital needs to be properly quality controlled not arbitrarily constrained
Read 10 tweets
Sep 2, 2024
“One monopolist serves as a gatekeeper for the delivery of nearly all live music in America today”

- US Govt’s attempt to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster announced in May in a court filing is quite a document… “platinum” pricing is mentioned 5 times … #Ticketonomics Image
Live Nation itself said this year that platinum pricing was in its 5th innings in the US but “in its first” in Europe and their intention to apply it “all along the way” until the concert “gates open up” is a “multi year opportunity to grow our top line/ bottom line”…
CEO Michael Rapino said earlier this year ”it’s just pricing smarter” & “it’s a skill” where LN/ Ticketmasters in-house team “works with artists, agents, managers” to “price the fronts better so the back sells out”… “rolling this around world” is “the great growth opportunity” Image
Read 5 tweets

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