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John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Feb 2

So. That Missouri self-defense bill, SB 666?

I didn't think it was doing this, but it is.

It's shifting the burden of PRODUCTION from the defendant to the state. Which, I'm thinking, no other jurisdiction has done.

This is actually a big deal.

In all states but VA, the state bears the burden of proof: the state must reject the defendant's account of the need for defensive force beyond a reasonable doubt.

But the defendant has to affirmatively TELL A STORY.

So think about Zimmerman's trial, or Rittenhouse's. The state had to disprove their stories, but they had to tell them. Zimmerman had to say he was scared in the fight, as did Rittenhouse.

Def force defenses can be rejected bc a judge can say "your story, if true? Not enough."

Read 6 tweets

John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Feb 2

Been thinking about that pre-K-is-harmful study, and this part in particular.

Might this mean less that pre-K leads to more issues, and more that parents with pre-K exposure are more likely to know what services are available, and thus advocate for their kids more?

This is one of those "how we define the term determines the results" thing that I'm increasingly obsessed with.

This isn't asking "do kids have more special ed NEEDS." It's asking "do kids get more special ed SERVICES."

Seem like the same at first, but... maybe not!

We can't really see needs, not directly. It gets filtered through what teachers are willing to say, what parents are willing to admit... and what parents are willing to advocate for.

And pre-K exposure might have parental impacts as well.

Read 4 tweets

John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Jan 30

https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1487788251091976194

I think—and, honestly, I’m not really joking—we’ve hit the point where major criminology journals need to declare a one (two? five?) yr moratorium on papers using admin data, and focus on a host of papers laying out how, exactly, we can use that data.

https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1487788251091976194

And I mean the major journals, not the lower-ranked ones. This isn’t some second-tier methodological issue. This gets at the heart of every quantitative paper using admin data. It’s a first-most toppest-tied issue.

Our admin data is… just a giant minefield.

Like, the UCR flaws are well known, but as you dig down into them, they just get worser and worser, like some fractal of fail.

We need to identify what data seems more reliable, which is less, how we can carefully impute across the gaps, how we can cross-validate, etc etc etc.

Read 5 tweets

John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Jan 30

https://twitter.com/mattgrossmann/status/1486036781791334403

This looks like an interesting paper, except….

It is REALLY HARD to use admin race data.

There’s a reason the BJS report never breaks out racial data by state.

This isn’t the only paper out there doing this, so it’s an important point!

https://twitter.com/mattgrossmann/status/1486036781791334403

The BJS gets its national racial estimates by combining admin data at the state level with several national-level surveys that gather self-reported race data. It then runs all these things through a fairy complex algorithm to get a NATIONAL estimate.

The challenge is that admin race data isn’t based on self-reports, but rather on how correctional staff choose to record things.

In this case, I’d bet how race is recorded correlates with North vs South… or at least the risk is really high.

Read 6 tweets

John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Jan 28

Since the text of the Constitution doesn’t say that you need to be textualist, I think the next nominee should reject GOP questions abt “sticking to the text” by saying textualism requires her to reject textualism and then claim the title of invincible Metatextualist.

Ok, two things.

1. I thought I was going to need a root canal, but turns out I need two wisdom teeth yanked. Both procedures sound far far better than what I imagine SCOTUS discourse will be for weeks or months to come.

2. Apparently Taika Waititi is directing a cinematic The Incal. Can’t wait. Also can’t wait for Luc Bresson to sue them for copyright violation of the 5th Element.

theverge.com/platform/amp/2…

Read 4 tweets

John Pfaff

@JohnFPfaff

Jan 28

Has anyone come across a paper that rigorously does either of these:

1. Compare the various marginal contributions of crime interventions ($1 for police cuts crime by x, $1 for drug treatment by y)?

We can't think abt opportunity costs without this.

And...

2. Compares how marginal effects of a crime intervention vary across ... other stuff? Like: $1 on drug treatment cuts crime by x in a city with a big per capita police force, and by y with a small one.

None of this stuff is one-size-fits-all, and feel like baselines are huge.

I feel like 95% of the debate abt crime is about which is *the* right response.

But it's all about marginal opportunity cost tradeoffs against different background conditions in different places.

Which, I know: