Some people are reporting that the failed Pfizer trial kids 6mo -4yo will show a reduction in symptomatic infections even though the antibody titers failed
Here is why even that data will be problematic 🧵
Here is why even that data will be problematic 🧵
The first question will be how many of these infections occurred when Omicron was the dominant strain.
Any infection from the prior strain will not be that interesting or pertinent.
Any infection from the prior strain will not be that interesting or pertinent.
The next question will be: how symptomatic were the kids.
The second dose of their vaccine was perfectly timed so that the transient immunity would occur during the Omicron Wave. This also coincided with widespread asymptomatic testing for the holidays
The second dose of their vaccine was perfectly timed so that the transient immunity would occur during the Omicron Wave. This also coincided with widespread asymptomatic testing for the holidays
It is possible that this endpoint is being driven solely by positive tests done for holiday travel, and not symptom driven testing.
It is also possible that the transient vaccine effect for Omicron, which fades with time happened to coincide with the December peak and so you will have a spurious short-term benefit. That will be washed out with longer follow-up
The real question is how many severe diseases were averted. It's hard to believe this study will be able to show that endpoint is improved because it has no power for it.
Let's not forget that we're not even talking about the primary endpoint. We're talking about a cherry picked secondary endpoint that occurred due to a lot of overlap of the moon and sun, in an environment where the administration is desperate for a win
Meanwhile, no one is talking about whether or not the risks to kids these age warrant lowering vaccine standards.
It's hard to look at this figure and believe that lower in the standards below. EUA is even appropriate.
If anything, the better argument is whether BLA is needed
If anything, the better argument is whether BLA is needed
https://twitter.com/ID_ethics/status/1488235124135440384?s=20&t=sbFudrp-kP-bhLzXsu7vjw
Finally, if you believe these results, despite these caveats, you should be actively trying to lower the dose in 5-year-olds who may be getting too much dose: why not run a trial of dose de-escalation in that cohort as the titer is not predictive?
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