Darren 🍬 🍂 🔨 Profile picture
Feb 3, 2022 31 tweets 11 min read Read on X
1/ Putting a price tag on friends, relatives, and neighbours (Powdthavee)

"Using the British Household Panel Survey, I find that an increase in the level of social involvements is worth up to an extra £85,000 a year in terms of life satisfaction."

researchgate.net/publication/22…
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2/ "While there is substantial evidence that people with strong social ties tend to report higher levels of happiness and satisfaction, this article will be one of the first to compare this impact to the impacts other occurrences in our lives."


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3/ "Think of a person who derives satisfaction from spending time with friends and also enjoys money. In principle, it is be possible to calculate exactly how the time spent with friends is worth in terms of income: a valuation for social relationships." Image
4/ "There is monotonicity in the dummies for frequencies of social interaction with only exogenous personal characteristics, i.e. age, age-squared, and gender, as additional controls.

"With more controls, social interaction continues to be very strongly positively correlated. Image
5/ "People who meet up with friends or relatives (neighbors) on most days tend to report 0.38 (0.24) score points more satisfaction than those who meet up with friends less than once a month to none at all, ceteris paribus." Image
6/ "An individual who only sees her friends or relatives less than once a month to never at all would require an extra £63,000 a year to be just as satisfied with life as an individual who sees her friends or relatives on most days."

NOTE: This is $123,000 in 2022 dollars. Image
7/ "Moving very poor health to excellent health is worth an extra £300,000 a year." [$585,000 in 2022 dollars]

"Even a move from 1σ below the mean of income to 1σ above is not large enough to compensate for a divorce, which has one of the smallest estimated compensations." Image
8/ "There is evidence that persistent personality traits predict reported well-being.

"Given that personalities jointly influence life satisfaction, frequency of social contacts, and income, cross-section equations will be unreliable without controlling for in-born dispositions. Image
9/ "Given that >80% report meeting w/ friends, relatives, or neighbors at least once/week over the past year, is there happiness to be gained from an increase social network status? Repeated observations on the same individual allow controls for unobserved individual differences.
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10/ "The coefficient on income continues to be positive and statistically well-defined.

"There is a statistically important positive inborn personality bias on the observed relationship between frequency of social contacts, income, and life satisfaction in our sample.
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11/ NOTE: Homeownership no longer has a meaningful effect on life satisfaction after controlling for individual fixed effects. Home maintenance now has a _negative_ impact.

This is similar to what Hoffman


and Bucchianeri find:

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12/ "Table 6 is based on Table 4’s fixed effects estimates.

" “Seeing friends or relatives once a month (on most days)” is now worth £57,500 (£85,00)." [$112,000 ($166,000) in 2022 dollars]

"This is 9x larger than the £9,800 average real household income/capita in the dataset. Image
13/ "The largest valuation continues to come from health." [$942,000 in 2022 dollars]

"The differences between OLS and ‘within’ (i.e. fixed effects) may be from people adapting to changes in income faster than changes in social capital."

More on this:

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14/ "Although the equivalent valuation of a move from “seeing friends or relatives less than once a month” to “seeing friends or relatives on most days” of £85,000 a year of extra income is very large, it only
applies to 1% of the entire sample.
15/ "The largest group (of approximately 20% of the representative British sample) contains individuals who moved between “seeing friends or relatives once or twice a week” and “seeing friends or relatives on most days”.
16/ "The extra income required to compensate those who see their friends or relatives only once or twice a week to have the same level of life satisfaction as those who do so on most days is still large (i.e. £85,000 - £69,500 = £15,500 per annum)." [$30,000 in 2022 dollars] Image
17/ "Our results are backed up by the substantive evidence in the psychology and sociology literature that social relationships provide a significant protective effect to well-being.
18/ "There seems to be little change in the magnitudes of the social network coefficients once a set of neighborhood variables have been included in the fixed effect estimation. Image
19/ "Our measures are correlated with things that we expect them to have some influence over (social life, leisure time) & uncorrelated with other things that we believe frequency of social interactions do not have a direct relationship with (satisfaction with income, health)." Image
20/ "There is a 74% reduction in risk of all-cause mortality for those with a meaningful purpose in life. The ikigai effect makes Alzheimer's 2.4x less likely.

“Optimism is related to an 11-15% longer life span & to greater odds of exceptional longevity.”
21/ A Wandering Mind is an Unhappy Mind
22/ "This paper finds that going from having no social network to seeing people most days of the week is worth $166,000, 9x larger than average per capita income. Excellent health is worth $942,000 vs. poor health. So why do these results seem odd?"
23/ Does Happiness Lengthen Life? The prediction of longevity in the elderly
24/ "Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone who is dying misses friends."

bronnieware.com/blog/regrets-o…
26/ To Do or to Have? That Is the Question
29/ Neural bases of social pain: evidence for shared representations with physical pain (Eisenberger)
30/ Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany
31/ Lost Touch? Implications of Physical Touch for Physical Health

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More from @ReformedTrader

May 18
1/ Skewness and kurtosis

* Everything has excess kurtosis
* Unlike market returns, individual stocks aren't negatively skewed
* Option prices underestimate kurtosis and overestimate negative skewness
* Implied moments don't consistently predict stock returns
* Sell options?? Image
2/ Asset classes have fat tails, and most have negative skewness.

Kurtosis & expected returns


Kurtosis-Based vs Volatility-Based Asset Allocation


Impact of Skewness and Fat Tails on Asset Allocation

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3/ This has practical consequences, and it's a good idea to be prepared.

Give me a moment: Optimal leverage in the presence of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis


When Genius Failed: The Rise & Fall of Long-Term Capital Management


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Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
1/ Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing (Aghassi, Asness, Fattouche, Moskowitz)

"We reference an extensive academic literature and perform simple but powerful analyses to address claims about factor investing."

aqr.com/Insights/Resea…
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2/ #1. Fiction: Factors are Data-Mined with No Good Economic Story

"Value, momentum, carry, and defensive/quality pass the more stringent statistical tests.

"Many of the factor tests conducted in papers are on variations of a few central themes."




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3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.

"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."





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Read 14 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/ Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany (Zimmermann, Easterlin)

"The formation of unions (separation or divorce) has a positive (negative) effect on life satisfaction. We also see a 'honeymoon period' effect."

researchgate.net/publication/49…
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2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."


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3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).

"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
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Read 29 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)

* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium

robeco.com/en-int/insight…
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2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."


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3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.

"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions." Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5, 2023
1/ Advanced Futures Trading Strategies (Robert Carver)

This really interesting book tests some strategies that I haven't seen in the academic literature.

Read Part 1 to see how the author builds portfolios; the new stuff is explored in Parts 2-5.

https://t.co/p1QdFCE9F1amazon.com/Advanced-Futur…



Trend and carry in various volatility regimes
Trend using spot prices
Carry with seasonality corrections
Value (5-year mean reversion) in futures markets
2/ Part 1: Basic directional strategies
Part 2: Adjusted trend, trend and carry in different risk regimes, spot trend, seasonally-adjusted carry, normalized trend, asset class trend
Part 3: Breakouts, value, acceleration, skew
Part 4: Fast mean reversion
Part 5: Relative value


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Skew
Fast mean reversion (approximately two-day holding period)
Fast mean reversion conditioned on trend
3/ Related reading

Time-Series Momentum


Two Centuries of Trend Following
https://t.co/R6JQb6Cg96

Carry
https://t.co/poFk6OWQsO

Value and Momentum Everywhere
https://t.co/l0wVgAOrhL

Leveraged Trading
https://t.co/1bKFEaD5cu



Read 4 tweets
Apr 2, 2023
1/ Natural course of health & well-being in non-hospitalised children & young people after testing for SARS-CoV-2

"Some test-positives & test-negatives reported adverse symptoms for the first time at 6- & 12-months post-test, suggesting multiple causes."

thelancet.com/journals/lanep…
2/ "The broadly similar pattern of adverse health and well-being reported as new-onset at 6- and 12 months among test-positives and test-negatives highlights the non-specific nature of these symptoms and suggests that multiple aetiologies may be responsible."
3/ Related reading:

Efficacy of Vaccination on Symptoms of Patients With Long COVID


Immunoglobulin signature predicts risk of post-acute COVID-19 syndrome
Read 4 tweets

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