Thread by @DavidSteadson

Quite a few Danes are upset about my tweet last night about the odd phenomenon of ICU covid cases decreasing in Denmark while cases, hospitalisations, and mortality increase.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1488928970758369282

A Dane directed me to guidance issued on December 2021 that suggested that hospitals needed to consider whether patients really needed ICU before referring them, or if they could be handled in an existing ward.

It seems to me that this could be a reasonable explanation.

I've been personally attacked for this and told that no, this was only going to happen if ICU was under pressure and that didn't happen. Ends up that just 2 weeks before that guidance, this article in DagensMedicine stated there were only 10 free ICU beds in the entire country

"on 6 December there were 310 intensive beds across the country, of which only 10 were vacant. By comparison, between 1 February 2021 and 21 June 2021, there were an average of 77 vacant intensive beds in the country's hospitals."

dagensmedicin.dk/eventuel-undta…

Over the next 3 weeks, just the number of covid ICU patients in Denmark increased by around double the number of free beds. As the document states, other causes usually increase pressure at this time of year too.

And that's not ICU under pressure?

Back in early 2020, data clearly showed something had happened with Swedish ICU. Like today, I was attacked for pointing it out.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1251655240111226885?s=20&t=1wD3_0RAOYlAuLsiuDg2ig

After media reported this, and whistleblowers came forward supporting that something *had* changed, Swedish authorities launched an investigation.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1258634172383604738?s=20&t=1wD3_0RAOYlAuLsiuDg2ig

They confirmed there had indeed been a change of protocols.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1404206939140235265?s=20&t=1wD3_0RAOYlAuLsiuDg2ig

Now, I don't *think* that what's happened in Denmark is as serious as what happened in Sweden - with elderly being given palliative care instead of treatment. But I also don't know if that's what happened. I'm fine with "think about if ICU is really needed" is enough.

What *doesn't* explain the diverging trends is things like "incidental covid", ie people testing positive despite receiving care for other issues. Why would people needing ICU have a *decreasing* rate of positives while *everywhere else* it's increasing?

Makes no sense.

So something changed. The data shows ICU was clearly under pressure in December. An official document that same month has suggestions on what to do to relieve that pressure.

That's it. No conspiracy. Nothing nefarious. Just a potential explanation. I'm open to others.