The only glimmer of light for Johnson's team is that while a big majority are furious about partygate a growing minority buy the "we need to move on to other issues" line.
Unfortunately for No 10 the issues people want to move on to are cost of living and the NHS.
As for "cost of living" today's announcements from Sunak will do relatively little to cushion the blow of 7% inflation; higher interest rates, and higher taxes. Plus benefits caps/freezes biting ever harder.
No real political opportunities there for Boris.
And as for the NHS - waiting lists are at their highest ever levels. And public confidence in recovery has fallen through the floor.
You can see why they want to talk about Ukraine as much as possible. But the bigger picture here is there are no escape routes here for Johnson that allow him to build any kind of positive momentum. Just more crises and reasons for Tory MPs to get upset.
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Sad to see the usual suspects parade this paper (written by people who've always opposed lockdowns). It is definitionally a mess (according to the definition they use we're still in a lockdown). Ignores lags. Systematically excludes studies. Etc...
The problem with all these papers is it's pretty much impossible to measure the impact of interventions which looked different in different countries; came in at different times, incl occasions when too late to make a difference, and link in complex ways to voluntary behaviours.
It's ao stupidly short termist again. Next interview Boris does he'll be asked to repeat the allegation and can't outside Parliament because it's defamation.
While the Tory leadership saga continues - there are huge systemic national problems that any future PM is going to have to face. The rapid increase in poverty being one of the worst.
Thought I'd do a thread on the Joseph Rowntree report on poverty published yesterday....
Benefit caps and freezes have started to bite hard. Well over half of universal credit recipients are now in poverty.
This is particularly hitting people living by themselves, single parents and families with three or more children. The impact of the two-child benefits cap is brutal and cruel.
I admit I'm baffled by the story in The Times today that Javid is looking at the academy school model for NHS trusts. They already have more autonomy than academies do.
And NHS trusts are far bigger financially than the biggest academy trusts. Making them any bigger by allowing successful ones to run other trusts in a chain would surely create a "too big to fail" moral hazard?
Obviously it's very early stage and maybe someone briefed it out because they're desperate for any other news. But it's hardly "red meat" - it's a very wonkish policy suggestion that most people wouldn't understand.
Would be grateful for twitter's help with some tentative market research....
*If* I were to start a paid for substack in the New Year which of the following options would be of most interest (appreciating most people will have no interest...)
1) a low cost weekly newsletter (say £3 a month) that had one longer piece on policy/politics and some nibs highlighting some other interesting things I'd spotted.
2) a more freewheeling blogging approach - say two pieces a week on average about a wider variety of things - policy/politics/culture/books etc... for say £5 a month.