Crucial stat from the OBR.

Post-election spending assumes no growth at all for four years per capita. The 1% increases are entirely eaten up by population growth.

If you think that will happen may I send you my catalogue of delightful bridges. Hunt has banked the growth from higher migration assumptions (now 315k a year up from 245k a year) without acknowledging the additional costs for public services.

The Public Accounts Committee report on HS2 is unreal.

"Crucially, the Department does not yet understand how HS2 will operate as a functioning railway following recent changes."

This is something that is costing us £67 billion even with the cancellation. We could have rebuilt every school that needs it in the country for that money. And had plenty left over for other infrastructure projects.

Just completely pissed away.

And these people have the gall to lecture us about sounds finances.

The Savanta poll today is an excellent example of how polls are used to drive narrative.

It shows a 7 point drop in the Labour lead in a week that's gone very badly for them. So it gets tied into the story.

But it really shouldn't be.... (thread) First we've had three other polls with overlapping fieldwork. Two showed an increase in the Labour lead -

R&W +4
Deltapoll +2

One showed a drop

More in Common -3

That's all just noise.

The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.

There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.

There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party. There are just 12 seats where the Tory vote share outweights the combined Labour and LD vote share. And only two if you include the Greens as well.

Gives an indication as to the damage heavy tactical voting could do.

Right so Sunak now has two strategic options.

1. He strengthens the bill and gets the GB News current and future presenters roster to vote with him but makes losing in Lords/courts more likely (and Commons if "moderates" can locate their spines). 2. He does nothing and calls the right's bluff. Turns third reading into a confidence vote and forces them to choose between supporting him and losing their jobs (in many cases).

Right time for a PISA thread. I'm going to start by talking about what I think is the most important chart in the report and then make a few other points. Here's the most important chart. It shows the UK is the *only* country in Europe where second generation immigrants outperform non-immigrant students. (And first generation don't do much worse).

Was wondering whether there was this much of an attempt to deny the inevitable by Tories + their media supporters in 1996. So I looked at the Telegraph archive for Oct/Nov that year. And, yes, it's full of it. Some examples coming up... Every poll which showed a drop in lead was reported like this.

The covid inquiry whatsapps are fascinating.

Talking about this front page James Slack wrote "Geordie [Greig - the editor] just desperate to get people back to work and buying a copy of the paper.."

Hancock replied "WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MASKS TO SAY THESE THINGS" Slack: "Have a look at the Telegraph front page. They're financially desperate and it's making them write desperate things."
Hancock: "I get that. But we must hold the line on masks - or they will go like loo roll."

covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/upl…

Home Office finally published the economic impact assessment for the government's awful Illegal Migration Bill.

The estimated cost of sending someone to Rwanda is £169,000. Perhaps even more ridiculous is the rise in cost for accomodating aslyum seekers over the past few years. Due to deliberate decisions to use hotels rather than local authority accomodation.

New post just out

With more doctors strikes starting today; worst ever waiting lists/A&E times; + 1000s of excess deaths - I look at why the NHS crisis isn't getting better and what the key causes are.

"How bad does it have to get?"

(free to read)

samf.substack.com/p/how-bad-does… The post is based on a detailed @instituteforgov report I have out today - co-written with @racheljanetwolf - on what we called the "productivity puzzle". Trying to understand the key reasons things are so bad.

(Thread to follow)
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/nh…

Felt a bit about there the day after the locals having this take when Thrasher and Co were talking about hung parliaments but as others have done more data analysis I think it's now pretty indisputable.

https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1659495028723515392

Of course you can come up with all sorts of plausible scenarios that still lead to a hung parliament. Plenty of things that can go better for govt + worse for Labour but if the GE had been this month Starmer would have a good majority.

Tuition fees is one of policies I feel most torn on. Good arguments against going to an entirely government funded system - it's not the biggest priority; and it puts unis at the whim of Treasury Brain (see e.g. schools and the NHS)... but It's increasing hard to sustain the argument that tuition fees are fair when you take into account the cost of housing and relative generational wealth distributions.

OK so thread on the childcare reforms now I've seen the detail.... Let's start with the positives. This is by far the biggest increase in childcare spending ever (reaching over £5bn by 2027/8). If implemented right it will significantly reduce costs for parents and could have a real benefit on child development + education too.

One thing I have learnt from sitting through many of these fiscal events is you need to wait to read the full OBR report + govt documents to get a real sense of what is going on. The bits the chancellor chooses to focus on will naturally give a distorted picture. (E.g. we're not entering recession according to the OBR - OK but are they predicting 0.1% growth in which case it's still pretty marginal!?)

There is a compassion vs control tension in all polling on aslyum seekers. If you frame questions about helping people in need you get a very difference response to if you frame them around controlling borders.

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1635951326021427202

The government's policy is very heavily framed around control - which is a real concern for most voters. Opponents will naturally focus on compassion and the fact genuine refugees have no way to get to the UK (unless from Ukraine or in some specific cases Afghanistan).

Which is why you need to do market reform alongside extra cash....

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1635912152430137345

Our report proposed non-profit nursery trusts supported by additional capital funding to run groups of nurseries. The benefits of scale you get from some private providers without the profits disappearing to private equity providers.

Really important new study from @BobbyDuffyKings and colleagues on UK attitudes to immigration compared to other countries. More strong evidence that the Westminster debate about immigration is completely divorced from changing public opinion (Thread) The UK is the most open of the countries surveyed to letting people come here as long as jobs are available.

New post just out

"Am I being unfair to boomers?"

This one is free to read.

samf.substack.com/p/am-i-being-u… It's a response to pushback against the argument in my post earlier in the month that boomers represent the ultimate failure of Thatcherism samf.substack.com/p/boomers-and-…

Right. Time for some predictions for 2023. These were the ones I did for 2022. Not too bad at all (except for number 6 which is just wrong). 1) Let's start with British politics. I don't think they'll be an general election in 2023. The Tories will continue to struggle but there is no incentive for anyone in the party to force an election they would very likely lose. We're on a flight path for spring or autumn 2024.

Really interesting polling from @YouGov. Just 10% of people think the Rwanda plan is the best way to deal with the channel boats issue. Tories/Lab supporters split on what the right approach would be. @YouGov The difference in Tory/Lab vote views of small boat aslyum seekers seems largely down to assessment of motive. Majority of Tories (wrongly) think most claims are false.

I think in practice this means they could deport some people to Rwanda (barring appeals etc...) but not at the scale required to make it a deterrent because each case will be challenged.

https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1604788465870278657

Before we get to any deportations there will be appeals in the UK and to the ECHR (who stopped the initial flight). If the Govt clear those hurdles they will, at most, be able to make a handful of symbolic deportations. But it won't deal with the substantive problem.