Balaji Srinivasan Profile picture
Feb 4 7 tweets 3 min read
State Dept spokesman asserts Russians are pre-positioning the equivalent of crisis actors, is asked for evidence beyond mere assertion, refuses to provide it to protect sources and methods.

Of course one might just trust the government. But not anymore.
Fascinating on several levels

- A media corp employee who doesn’t just trust the US government
- A government that isn’t trusted on its claims
- A public that trusts neither

After Steele Dossier, Snowden, Iraq WMD, babies in incubators, and Tonkin Gulf — feels like a milestone.
The most interesting part is seeing the media corporation employee call the federal government employee the source of Alex Jones-like conspiracy theories.

This is an inadvertent admission that something can be false even if the US government says so. And if a media corp says so.
It’s like seeing two actors fight on set. Neither the government employee nor the media corp employee may actually know anything a smart member of the public doesn’t. Proof: the disastrous intel on Afghanistan, the rise of OSINT.

And of course this.
taibbi.substack.com/p/russiagate-i…
Restoring trust means moving to a fully auditable information supply chain.

Let’s assume a better government that wasn’t making it up. What they’d want in this scenario was a zero knowledge proof. Reveal no sources & methods, yet prove it.

A ledger of record makes it possible…
Btw, what might evidence look like?

@siddharthakale shared this presentation by the Russians with slides & satellite imagery when they accused Turkey of collaborating with ISIS.

Could still be made up. But the US government didn’t even put in the effort.
This is cutting because it gets at a deep truth.

A leadership class selected for their ability to make emotional accusations will not be able to pivot towards logical reasoning.

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More from @balajis

Feb 5
There's a simple explanation.

For the purely verbal, crypto appears too technical. What's all this about zero knowledge?

For the mainly technical, crypto looks unnecessarily verbal. What's all this about the state?

We usually hear from the former. That post is from the latter.
You can understand gradient descent without understanding history, but you can’t understand Bitcoin without understanding history.
Note that this doesn't mean modern ML/AI isn't important. I spent years doing it, it's awesome.

It's more that "AI ethics" is a bolt-on to AI. The CCP has their own notion of AI ethics, for example!

But in web3 & especially in BTC, the social is inseparable from the technical.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
The non-consensus bet is that many Bernie supporters may eventually become Bitcoin maximalists.

Why? They are more concerned with economics than wokeness. And some see that the printed money isn’t going to the poor but the rich. Once they lose faith in the state, BTC is there.
That may sound implausible.

But inflation could be the left’s Iraq. Huge swaths of the right flipped on the state once their trust in US military intervention just led to losses for all, American & Iraqi alike.

So too for left trust in US economic intervention, after inflation?
It’s just like conservatives starting out as gung-ho supporters of US military intervention, seeing that fail, and then flipping completely into becoming isolationists.

MMT will impoverish the poor, not benefit them. And that may cause them to flip on US economic intervention.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
Their approach is a school-of-fish strategy. They mindlessly mouth the conventional wisdom. When they’re wrong, they’re all wrong together. Who coulda known?

But any individual who did know, and said so, can be singled out for opprobrium.

It’s all about conformity, not truth.
It's actually a good strategy for the establishment, albeit emergent.

Attack any heterodox thought as a group. Then, if the idea breaks through regardless, no one person needs to apologize.

The lab leak theory is a good example. @Ayjchan @mattwridley
scottaaronson.blog/?p=6183
One defense against the school-of-fish strategy is pseudonymity.

That's why Satoshi and project-evidence.github.io put their work out under a pseudonym.

The latter is the renamed version of an early lab leak study that we discussed in April 2020.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
This is a Renaissance painting.
No, the opposite of a Renaissance.
Dégringolade.
20 years.
2 stalls.
A full press conference.
A toilet paper ribbon.
No scissors.
Idiocratically oblivious pride in this “accomplishment”.
And a model that is being exported all over America.
I can’t get over how stupid this is.
It is decivilization.
Literal Idiocracy.
Gawking at a flush toilet from multiple camera angles.
13 billion dollars a year for the city.
No one in the whole imbroglio seems to recognize how underwhelming it all is.
The thing is that SF is not just the future of much of America. It is its present.

Its governance model may be terrible for citizens. And terribly wasteful of money. But it secures sinecures for parasites & funds the homeless industrial complex.

They’re happy with the outcome.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 2
In San Francisco
It takes 20 years to build a public bathroom
They held a ribbon-cutting ceremony
And a press conference
This is not a joke
"BART will hold a ribbon-cutting event to mark the reopening of the Powell Street Station restrooms that have been closed for more than 20 years." bart.gov/news/articles/…
You laugh, but the SF model is being exported all over the US, from Seattle to LA.

It's legalized graft, on an enormous scale, always in the name of the people, at the expense of the people. Read @ShellenbergerMD's book about this catastrophe of a city.
amazon.com/San-Fransicko-…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 1
India is legalizing cryptoassets. There’s significant fine print, especially around tax, but overall this is a win.

Speech (video):
Speech (transcript): indiabudget.gov.in/doc/budget_spe…
Summary: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
Full Bill: indiabudget.gov.in/doc/Finance_Bi…
The speech is bigger than crypto, however. If you read it, you get the unmistakable impression that India is more tech savvy than many realize.

Digital universities, drone farms, telemedicine, open source…embraced and understood at the highest levels.
indiabudget.gov.in/doc/budget_spe…
It's a bizarre experience to see a national politician who is conversant with technology and can calmly describe its benefits to the public as part of a dry budget speech.

It shouldn't be bizarre, but it is.

In other words, this was also my impression:
Read 9 tweets

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