I've been reviewing the videos of the US raid in Syria that killed the new head of ISIS and there's some details that are emerging about the aftermath that might lend some credence to the US claims about a bomb being detonated.
I've only identified one video that shows corpses at the scene, and that was filmed at night. If you've seen the video with a grey splodge in the middle you'll know the one I mean (and if you have a splodgeless version please send it over).
Three corpses are visible. They're positioned on the ground opposite the side of the house that exploded, around the area marked on the map below.
One is an adult male. He has a similarity to the ISIS leader, but I wouldn't want to make a definite ID due to damage to his skull resulting. He doesn't appear to have been shot, and his arms is twisted off, so along with the skull damage an explosion might have been involved.
There's also a dead child, which I won't describe, and some very badly damaged partial remains of a person which definitely seems explosion related. So three bodies, with varying levels of damage indicating they were caught in an explosion.
There's many videos and images of the inside and outside of the building, and in the collapse section of the building there's no signs of the sort of fragmentation you'd expect from a munition, like a missile, from exploding.
The ceiling of the collapsed section is covered in blood, which seems pretty unusual if you consider the ways it could have gotten there. Then there's a low wall on a rooftop balcony area, marked in green below, which has blood splatter on it.
So it seems there's a possibility the bodies on the ground reached there after being blown off the roof top. In this video the bodies are identified as being the ISIS leader, his little boy, and his wife.
Now we've no way of independently confirming that, there's certainly a similarity between the male body and the ISIS leader, but his face is damaged, so I personally wouldn't want to say for sure.
But given we can see the bodies of the ISIS leader and his son are fairly intact, and the third body is badly damaged, it would logically mean his wife would have taken the brunt of the explosion, whatever the source of it was.
I'm really not seeing any indications of a munition being used, so it unless someone wants to point out something they think I've missed it seems like the scenario where an explosive was set off upstairs is most likely based on what I've seen so far.
If you want to take a look at the videos and photographs I've put together a Youtube playlist here:youtube.com/playlist?list=…
and you'll find plenty here and on Youtube searching for أطمة. There may be some NWS images there.
As @CalibreObscura points out, this might explain the source of the explosion, and the lack of casing would explain the lack of shrapnel. The source is well known pro-US website RT Russia t.me/rt_russian/909…
I'd also note a number of the videos contain interviews with witnesses that have yet to be translated, so there could be more information in those about what happened. youtube.com/playlist?list=…
One question I do have is why there's a fire in the below video? That fire wasn't burning in the video filmed at night showing the bodies, so it seems it would have been lit after the US raid.
This shot from the night time video with the bodies shows the same wall from the opposite direction, and there's clearly no fire there.
There's more information on the raid gathered from various sources here, including various witness statements
A new OPCW Fact-Finding Mission report on chemical weapon use in Syria. It's interesting to look at the analysis they're doing on the chlorine cylinders used, I expect we'll see similar analysis in the final report on the Douma chemical attack.
The OPCW FFM concludes that there's "reasonable grounds to believe that the chlorine cylinder was used as a weapon. The cylinder ruptured as a result of mechanical force and released a toxic irritant substance that affects the respiratory system and mucous membranes."
During the Summer of 2014 the Russian military performed over 100 cross border artillery attacks from Russia into Ukraine to support Russian proxy forces fighting inside Ukraine, which we identified in this investigation bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
By measuring the shape of impact craters on satellite imagery on Google Earth it was possible to establish which direction incoming fire that created the craters came from.
Although we published our report 2 years after the attacks took place the techniques used could be applied to satellite imagery as soon as it becomes available, sometimes as little as 24 hours after the attack.
Russia has declared Bellingcat, an organisation with no presence inside Russia, a foreign agent under Russian law. Given the ridiculous and potentially dangerous nature of such an act by the Russian state we'll be challenging the designation in Russian courts and the ECHR.
This is part of the Russian state's attempt to shut down free speech and any reporting that puts the government in a negative light, and has impacted many Russian organisations that we'll also be working to support.
It is now almost certain Bellingcat's Russian language site (ru.bellingcat.com) will be blocked inside Russia, but will we continue to publish stories about Russia, in Russian, irregardless of what labels the Russian state puts on us and our work.
This appears to be pro-Kurdish protestors, almost certainly in relation to attempts to get Turkey investigated for alleged chemical weapon us against Kurdish forces.
I've contacted the KCK to ask to see the evidence they've collected, considering they're claiming 300+ attacks over the last several months what I received wasn't very compelling, especially when there's accusations of Sulphur Mustard and Tabun use.
Given the number of alleged attacks and the fact chemical weapons generally leave fairly intact munition casings the images that were shared with me were not compelling, some captured unused riot control grenades and a munition that was marked as containing an explosive fill.
This week Roman @Dobrokhotov appeared at the Berlin bicycle assassination trial detailing more incidents that ties the suspect to other assassination across the world tagesschau.de/investigativ/t…
It seems likely the outcome of the Berlin bicycle assassination case will be a big test for the new coalition government, how will they react to a Russian state sponsored assassination on their territory?
More interestingly for us at Bellingcat is the identity of the suspect and his links to the Russian intelligence services were identified using the same techniques used in our other investigations into Russian assassination attempts, including the Skripal and Navalny cases.