Quite long but hopefully comprehensive thread on where we are...
TLDR: cases increasingly hard to interpret, hosp & deaths declining, schools big issue, new (but not more severe) subvariant growing 1/18
Vax - vaccinations have dropped off a cliff in 2022. 80K a day vs almost 1 million before Xmas.
And it's not cos we've finished! Esp NI has only 50% of pop boosted.
We need to keep trying to increase uptake - messaging that pandemic is over and omicron mild doesn't help. 2/18
PCR tests have dropped off massively too since we've stopped requiring confirmatory tests for LFDs. *Reported* use of LFDs is also dropping.
Some is less infection, but not all. Will make both reported cases & positivity rate (based on PCR) hard to interpret. 3/18
NI calcs +ve rate differently now so is on separate plot.
Positivity and cases are now flat for all nations except NI.
Since 31st NI & England reporting reinfections >90 days after 1st, Wales >42 days after 1st and Scotland not yet... 4/18
Can see (approx) impact of adding known reinfections in England here - the increase in reinfections with Omicron is clear -> ~10% of cases each day.
It's great that UKHSA have added them now, but with Omicron it's possible 90 days is too long an interval... 5/18
Reported cases suggests Scotland & Wales back to Nov levels, but ONS infection survey says nowhere near & that scot & wales going up.
Meanwhile, Zoe symptom tracker app says cases back to peak levels. Each measuring diff thing over diff timescale but usually consistent. 6/18
So cases are still *v high* but trend hard to interpret. Hospitalisaitons are going steadily down which is good.
That said, NHS staff absences are still much higher than last 2 yrs so still a lot of pressure in terms of staffing as well as higher occupancy than autumn. 7/18
In terms of death, deaths by day reported went over 500 this week which caused lots of misleading reporting. Need to look at 7-day avgs *and* numbers by date of death (a bit lagged).
Deaths seem to have peaked ~300 a day - still high! but nowhere near 500. 8/18
So what is on horizon? Well, Omicron has 3 main types: BA.1 (main one in UK), BA.1.1 (daughter of BA.1) & BA.2 (sibling of BA.1).
BA.1.1 seems to outcompete BA.1 and BA.2 outcompetes both. 9/18
Denmark has higher vax rates than us & BA.2 now dominant - v high cases (equiv to >600K a day here!).
But while deaths & admissions are rising, they are in line with less severity (given case numbers!). ICU cases are falling still. So BA.2 prob no more severe than BA.1 10/18
In England, BA.1.1 has been taking over from BA.1, but now BA.2 seems to be outcompeting both.
BA.2 most prevalent in N Ireland (which has high case growth now!) & London & SE in England. 11/18
While on variants, ONS released analysis of chance of symptoms (on day of test only - symptoms could be over or still to come).
Both Delta & Omicron more likely to cause symptoms than Alpha *and* 2nd infections just as likely to have symptoms as 1st Delta infections. 12/18
And then... children & schools. Dashboard says cases in kids & parents' generation flat or declining. Zoe app says they are going up.
ONS infection survey shows cases 2x higher in primary than secondary and high.
Next week's ONS will show whether case trend up or down. 13/18
And these high infections have consequences. Admissions in children stay stubbornly (relatively) high with Omicron - and data suggests Omicron is *not* milder for kids.
Plus Long Covid has been going up in kids & school staff. 14/18
ONS also released vaccination updates this week.
Firstly, vaccinations in teens is still much lower than in adults - esp second doses.
Secondly, rates are much lower in schools in more deprived areas. 15/18
For teenagers who had been vaccinated, most common reason was to protect others and then themselves.
So, although JCVI do not consider benefits to others in their decisions on child vax, it's worth noting that teens do consider it.
Also, most parents would vax 5-11 yrs. 16/18
And finally - ventilation! almost third of schools said that good ventilation was hard to implement.
Half said not enough CO2 monitors, and 10% of CO2 monitored rooms had poor readings and no way of improving. 17/18
Accepting that the virus is airborne is vital to learning to adapt to Covid - that means we need to understand mask use & how we make air cleaner.
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6