Thread by @webbhk

The #HK Government has already lost control of this outbreak and "Dynamic Zero-COVID" is history. They just don't know it or won't admit it yet. Here's why (thread):
1. There's a 2-3 day lag between testing & reporting, and a 2-3 day lag between infection & testing.

2. That's a total of about 5 days between infection and reporting.
3. The doubling time in unlinked cases, a proxy for growth in the wild, is around 4 days, so 2^(5/4)=2.38x for the number of cases infected today and reported in 5 days' time.

4. For every 2 reported cases, there's maybe 1 who doesn't come forward, vaxed with mild symptoms, given the disincentives (throwing all their contacts into the quarantine system). They may self-test using a RAT. So 2.38*1.5=3.57x.

5. So during growth phase, on any day, the number of people newly infected is around 3-4 times the number of cases reported.
6. Today's score of 350 may be partly due to CNY bunching, but take an adjusted number around 250. That means 750-1000 people will be infected today.

7. About 2/3 of those will be reported in reports in 5 days' time, but on that day around 3000 people will be newly infected. Govt cannot contact-trace that many cases fast enough to stop onward transmission.

8. Lockdowns of individual buildings are no longer worthwhile, because infections are too sporadic and we don't have the capacity to lock them all down (unless PLA is drafted in).

9. Wuhan crushed the 1st outbreak only with city-wide lockdown + massive outside assistance from rest of PRC. Also, pre-vaccines, people got sicker and came in faster. This is not 2020. Nowhere, including PRC, has stopped an outbreak on this scale in a vaccinated population. End.