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Andy Scollick Profile picture
@Andy_Scollick
Feb 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Pseudo-parliament and internment camps
Putin's coup plan for Ukraine
by @JulianRoepcke

Original (German) bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
Google translation (English) www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/auslan…

Stage 1 - Surrender of the cities

1/
Subsequently, the Russian intelligence services would "seize strategic facilities, eliminate threats, recruit those willing to cooperate and establish a new leadership in the conquered cities". 2/
According to the report available to BILD, this practice would be used in key cities in the country until all of Ukraine's metropolises "peacefully" came under Russian control. 3/
Stage 2 - Convocation of the "People's Rada"

4/
/5
Stage 3 – State of Emergency and Camp

6/
7/
The goal: a new “union state”

8/
9/
End/

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Andy Scollick Profile picture
Oct 30, 2022
Russia was going to stop grain exports anyway. This was clear three weeks ago (11 Oct) when Lloyd's List announced "Ukraine grain corridor hampered by inspection delays" then 24 Oct when @MFA_Ukraine raised alarm about delays holding up over 170 ships. #BlackSeaGrainInitiative
…list.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1142529/Ukra…
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Oct 29, 2022
@bedform @HayleyJFowler @jrockstrom @dpcarrington Plus, there's a risk that social, economic, political systems have limits (thresholds, tipping points) that will be breached before key climate, ecological, biogeophysical tipping points are passed. Different system phases are not necessarily temporally or spatially aligned.
@bedform @HayleyJFowler @jrockstrom @dpcarrington Sorry to add to the depression! But there is very little attention paid to the civilisation effects of climate change as we approach (multiple interacting) climate thresholds. The Energy Transition itself is such an effect. But probably so are destabilisation and conflict.
@bedform @HayleyJFowler @jrockstrom @dpcarrington My concern is that the Energy Transition, though vital, is ushering in an era of conflict driven by increasing competition for access to and control over the 'new oil': critical raw materials. We shouldn't underestimate our species' propensity for conflict and violence (alas).
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jun 18, 2022
How much more military hardware could be removed from storage in the US and from US depots around the world, and sent to Ukraine? #ArmUkraineNow 🧵
Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) in Herlong, California is the US Army's largest facility (36,000 acres) dedicated to long-term desert storage, regeneration, reutilisation and redistribution of mechanised vehicles, including an estimate 2,000+ M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
Plus thousands of other light and heavy armoured vehicles. Take a look for yourself on Google Maps google.com/maps/place/40°15'58.2"N+120°09'09.4"W/@40.1974637,-120.1372687,1199m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0xb09eee22724fa1be!8m2!3d40.266164!4d-120.152619?hl=en
Read 14 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jun 18, 2022
Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defence: "First, you have to understand that the frontline is 2,500 km long. The frontline where there is active combat is more than 1,000 km long. That’s like from Kyiv to Berlin." #ArmUkraineNow nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/…
"As of today, our need for heavy artillery systems is measured by hundreds. That’s why we also need a huge number of rounds for these artillery systems."
"I am not going to name the exact number we need. That is information for internal use. I’m just going to tell you I think to fulfill those needs we have to engage the entire military industrial complex of the entire world."
Read 19 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jun 18, 2022
To invert Richard III: glorious summer cometh before our winter of discontent. #CostOfLiving protests are mild now. But when winter arrives and energy bills are sky-high, and jobs threatened by recession, largely due to Russia, will social unrest spread? mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
theguardian.com/business/2022/…
newstalk.com/news/we-cant-w…
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jun 15, 2022
Gen Milley, Joint Staff (from 48:30): "In warfare, no weapon system is a silver bullet, ever. So no singular weapon system ever "turns the balance". It's the combination - a combined arms fight - of ground maneuovre with air, artillery and so forth. twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
And that's where the HIMARS comes in. In this case, in terms of fires - it's a battle of fires - so the Ukrainians have mortars. They're going to go out to 5, 7, 8 km. Then they've got the tube artillery. That's gonna take you to out to 25km with precision fire or accurate fire
with the M777s. Then they've also got rocket-assisted projectiles which are going to 40km. And the HIMARS go out to 85km. So we're providing them with .. the Brits and others about 10 systems. They're going to have well over 100 rounds of ammunition that's an initial package.
Read 6 tweets

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