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Andy Scollick Profile picture
Andy Scollick
@Andy_Scollick
Find me on https://t.co/MdZV0px9l0
Oct 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russia was going to stop grain exports anyway. This was clear three weeks ago (11 Oct) when Lloyd's List announced "Ukraine grain corridor hampered by inspection delays" then 24 Oct when @MFA_Ukraine raised alarm about delays holding up over 170 ships. #BlackSeaGrainInitiative …list.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1142529/Ukra…
Oct 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
@bedform @HayleyJFowler @jrockstrom @dpcarrington Plus, there's a risk that social, economic, political systems have limits (thresholds, tipping points) that will be breached before key climate, ecological, biogeophysical tipping points are passed. Different system phases are not necessarily temporally or spatially aligned. @bedform @HayleyJFowler @jrockstrom @dpcarrington Sorry to add to the depression! But there is very little attention paid to the civilisation effects of climate change as we approach (multiple interacting) climate thresholds. The Energy Transition itself is such an effect. But probably so are destabilisation and conflict.
Jun 18, 2022 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
How much more military hardware could be removed from storage in the US and from US depots around the world, and sent to Ukraine? #ArmUkraineNow 🧵 Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) in Herlong, California is the US Army's largest facility (36,000 acres) dedicated to long-term desert storage, regeneration, reutilisation and redistribution of mechanised vehicles, including an estimate 2,000+ M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
Jun 18, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defence: "First, you have to understand that the frontline is 2,500 km long. The frontline where there is active combat is more than 1,000 km long. That’s like from Kyiv to Berlin." #ArmUkraineNow nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/… "As of today, our need for heavy artillery systems is measured by hundreds. That’s why we also need a huge number of rounds for these artillery systems."
Jun 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
To invert Richard III: glorious summer cometh before our winter of discontent. #CostOfLiving protests are mild now. But when winter arrives and energy bills are sky-high, and jobs threatened by recession, largely due to Russia, will social unrest spread? mirror.co.uk/news/politics/… theguardian.com/business/2022/…
Jun 15, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Gen Milley, Joint Staff (from 48:30): "In warfare, no weapon system is a silver bullet, ever. So no singular weapon system ever "turns the balance". It's the combination - a combined arms fight - of ground maneuovre with air, artillery and so forth. twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1… And that's where the HIMARS comes in. In this case, in terms of fires - it's a battle of fires - so the Ukrainians have mortars. They're going to go out to 5, 7, 8 km. Then they've got the tube artillery. That's gonna take you to out to 25km with precision fire or accurate fire
Jun 15, 2022 • 34 tweets • 8 min read
The results of this @ECFR poll are alarming. It reveals that diverging public opinion could weaken European political unity about the response to Russia's war against Ukraine. ecfr.eu/publication/pe… Europeans feel great solidarity with 🇺🇦 and support sanctions against 🇷🇺, but are split about long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35%) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish 🇷🇺 (25%).
Jun 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There's a misunderstanding among some civilians and military folks that Ukraine's "demands", "asks", "wishlist" are unrealistic. Some points:

A) Ukraine has been requesting (for purchase and lend-lease) NATO-standard weapon systems since 2014. To no avail (until recently). B) If Ukraine had been trusted with those weapon systems and the deterrence they present in the first place, back in 2014-2016, Russia may not have invaded overtly on 24 Feb 2022. This phase of war could have been avoided. Whose fault is that?
Jun 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
❗️ French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called for a boost to defence budgets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying France was now on a "war economy" footing. #ArmUkraineNow france24.com/en/france/2022… Macron said he had asked the defence ministry and armed forces chiefs of staff to adjust a six-year framework defence spending plan running to 2025 to the new geopolitical situation, to "match the means to the threats".
Jun 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Did you know?

On 6 June 2022, US President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act of 1950 (DPA) in order to accelerate domestic production of clean energy technologies.

So why not invoke the DPA to produce arms to supply Ukraine? 1/ #ArmUkraineNow whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… For war and national defence, the DPA can be used to set priorities and allocate materials and facilities, authorise their requisition, provide financial assistance to expand arms and other production capacity and supply, and more. 2/
Apr 30, 2022 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Like many civil analysts of military matters, newspaper editors are prone to make a fundamental error: mistaking rationality or irrationality with malignant personality traits, namely paranoia and pyschopathy. 1/ theguardian.com/commentisfree/… First, there's a difference between Putin and his government making nuclear threats. Only Putin has executive authority to initiate a strategic nuclear attack. Shoigu and Gerasimov also have nuclear briefcases possibly as a triple-lock, but more likely in case of decapitation. 2/
Mar 21, 2022 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
This 👇 piece contains some dangerous assumptions, which appear to be gaining traction in Washington DC thinking regarding Russia's war against Ukraine. 🧵 #StopRussia #ArmUkraine 1/ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea… First, the view that US/NATO should refrain from enforcing a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine due to the risk of an all out NATO-Russia war is "mired in appeasement thinking". 2/
Mar 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"In the worst scenario, if the war is going badly, Putin could reach for a tactical nuclear weapon out of desperation. While this is still unlikely, the risk is not zero. And increasing that risk is unacceptable." scientificamerican.com/article/limite… "No one knows if using a tactical nuclear weapon would trigger full-scale nuclear war. Nevertheless, the risk of escalation is very real. Those on the receiving end of a nuclear strike are not likely to ask whether it was tactical or strategic."
Mar 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There are no treaty limits to the number of tactical (non-strategic or battlefield) nuclear weapons a country can possess.

🇺🇸 has est. 230 tactical nuclear weapons
🇷🇺 has est. 1,000 to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons

Source: sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL325… (2021, p. 2) #escalation 1/ "We estimate that Russia today has approximately 1,912 nonstrategic nuclear warheads, potentially fewer, assigned for delivery by air, naval, ground, and various defensive forces." 2/ thebulletin.org/premium/2022-0…
Mar 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Zelenskyy offers Russia the last chance to off ramp. But Russia won't take it. Putin's pyschopathic traits are growing stronger. His paranoia is increasing. He is approaching the chaotic end stage of malignant narcissism, which is fraught with danger (see below). #StopRussia The entropic stage of malignant narcissism
Mar 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
@johnsweeneyroar hits the nail on the head about what's happening in Russia: the Church of Putinology, which is becoming a death cult. This fits with the picture of Putin's psychopathic, dark narcissistic traits (see below). Putin has the traits of a psychopath: Expert opinion by @zivezracohen Ziv Cohen MD, Clinical Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at Weill Cornell Medical College of Cornell University
Mar 2, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
NB. I don't believe we're anywhere near nuclear warfare in Europe. But the possibility exists. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov have executive authority to go nuclear. Senior Armed Forces commanders already have devolved authority to use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. 1/ The probability of nuclear warfare happening remains extremely low. But the possibility exists and the probabilities can change very quickly depending on events and changes in Russia's win vs lose perceptions. Ultimately, it's a power decision, not a military one. 2/
Feb 19, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
When analysts estimate the number of 🇷🇺 troops required to occupy an area of 🇺🇦 they often use a rule of thumb that expeditionary operations require a minimum troop density of 10 to 15 troops per 1,000 civilians depending on how hostile the local population is. However.. 1/ This assumes there are 1,000 civilians at the start of 'policing' an occupied area. If that figure can be reduced by 25%, 50%, 75% through displacement (shelling and bombing cities, towns and villages to terrorise people into fleeing, as in Syria) a wider area can be occupied. 2/
Feb 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
No one's asked me yet why or how the Russians would 'interfere' with Mount Gabriel civil installation or whether they even could. Well.. see below For starters, the US and other militaries do use civilian aircraft charter flights for transatlantic mobility, such as Omni Air International oai.aero/services-chart…
Feb 10, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
So, @MichealMartinTD @LeoVaradkar @EamonRyan and @SimonCoveney have approximately 9-10 days left to prepare #Ireland🇮🇪 for the economic, financial, social, political and psychological impacts of a 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war that could escalate into a war that threatens all of Europe. 🧵 1/ Where is the Government of Ireland's strategy for managing public safety and civil defence? Where are the planning and preparedness measures for possible incidents involving, for example, risk to Irish-registered aircraft crossing eastern Europe? 2/
Feb 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russia is not implementing its part of the #MinskAgreements, the security part, by maintaining a ceasefire, withdrawing its Occupation troops from the Donbas, allowing its militias to be disarmed peacefully and returning the border to Ukrainian control, with full OSCE access. 1/ At the same time, Russia insists that Ukraine is failing to implement its part of the agreements, the political part, by granting the Russian-occupied territories elections and political autonomy. Meanwhile, Russia issues passports, creating Donbas citizens of Russia. 2/