1. Thinking about this tweet lately. Here we have someone with a "tech people vs word people" dichotomy, but unlike @balajis and all the others who do this, crypto ends up on the side of... the word people.
This is not my image of what crypto is! So what's going on?
I do think high fees are a major culprit; they make interesting and cool apps too expensive so hyperfinancialized apps win out. I'm hopeful that successful scaling over the next 2y will fix this.
But anyway...
5. There's also something deeper going on. Zeroing in now on the phrase "theorycel aesthetic sensibilities".
A lot of early crypto ideology was inspired by libertarianism, eg. Bastiat, Mises, Rothbard... which cares *a lot* about theorycel aesthetic vision of equality.
6. The core instinct is: we need a formal system of rights and limits that treats everyone equally and doesn't make unprincipled exceptions. You can't enslave or steal, so the government should not be able to enslave (conscription) or steal (taxation) either.
7. Crypto thinking about decentralization is similar. It's all about avoiding ugly unprincipled exceptions (in a centralized system, who gets to be the center?)
Focus is on proving hard unconditional security models (eg. secure unless >= 1/3 of stake is malicious)
8. Meanwhile, AI is the exact opposite. It really does produce wonders, but we can't explain how it works, and there's far more unprincipled tinkering than theory.
And to be fair, the unprincipled approach does cause problems that crypto doesn't have!
9. One interesting parallel is @MacaesBruno's "black box" as a metaphor for how philosophy works in China, and why AI is attractive there. Very low on theorycel aesthetics, high on "just keep shape rotating until it seems to work"
10. To be clear, I think there are important good things that come out of taking theorycel aesthetics seriously, and people who don't suffer for it. A really big one is credible neutrality:
11. Theory is transparent and legible to outsiders, tinkering is opaque. Hence why crypto (the blockchains, not the applications on top of them) really has gained quite a bit of public trust, while AI has largely failed at achieving that goal.
12. And why I ultimately do think liberal democracies are much more well-suited to be the center of a "world order" than autocracies. A world where the center is a centralized black box is scary.
(But democracies do need to actually follow principles to keep their legitimacy)
13. But crypto isn't just team theorycel. Crypto is certainly very theorycel compared to AI (and as I argue above, that's its *advantage*), but it also does a lot of shape rotation (which is crypto's advantage compared to much more purely wordcel-driven trad institutions)
14. So to summarize, I do think crypto is heavy on shape rotating and "crypto is theorycels who have accomplished nothing but scams" vastly undersells what crypto is situated to accomplish, but the crypto vs AI dichotomy also does point to something really important.
15. See also: Peter Thiel's idea that "crypto is libertarian, AI is communist"
16. It's fascinating how the two axes seem to imply each other:
Pure tinkering is fast and effective, but it is unprincipled, so lacks large-scale legitimacy, so can only cooperate through centralization
Theorycel thinking is slower, but well-suited for decentralization
17. BTW apparently the way noun declension works in this internet language is that if you respect someone being called a -cel, then the ending becomes -chad, so perhaps we should be talking about theorychads (and even wordchads)?
18. Many are inclined to dismiss this whole shape rotator and wordcel thing because it came from 4chan, and "everyone knows" 4chan is icky and hateful or whatever.
But I take it seriously. It's a new internet-native culture trying to understand the human world on its own terms.
19. Perhaps even a lowbrow but still important part of the "post-liberal Western ideology" that @palladiummag keeps talking about. Not anti-liberal, but just... weird. Which is fine, because the underlying reality that it's trying to understand is weird and only getting weirder.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
CryptoRelief sending $100m of the $SHIBA funds back to me. I plan to personally deploy these funds with the help of science advisors to complement CryptoRelief's existing excellent work with some higher-risk higher-reward covid science and relief projects worldwide.
I've cofounded a new org (Balvi) to direct these funds, which is in a better position to make these bets which will are very-high-value and global in nature and bring great benefit to Indians and non-Indians. You can follow funds at this address:
Today, a mini-tweetstorm of some of the things I've said and written over the past decade, and what I think about those subjects today.
1. In 2013, I wrote this piece on "how Bitcoin can actually help Iranians and Argentinians". The core point: Bitcoin's key benefit is internationality and censorship resistance, NOT "the 21m limit". I predicted stablecoins will prosper.
Last week, I actually went to Argentina! My verdict: generally correct. Cryptocurrency adoption is high but stablecoin adoption is really high too; lots of businesses operate in USDT. Though of course, if USD itself starts showing more problems this could change.
Temporarily breaking out of my Twitter-minimization for a short thread on issues around free speech and the mass deplatformings of the last week.
Obviously the riots were terrible, people still supporting DT are crazy, so moving on to some things that have not yet been said...
1. Every "two buttons" meme has a not-necessarily-equal and opposite two buttons meme.
The two-buttons meme most people are talking about is "private corporations can do what they want" vs "censorship is bad" on the right. But there's also a challenge on the left...
The "outside view" explanation is simple. When factions fight, they typically disagree on principles and have divergent interests. But eventually by random chance, an issue appears where taking some action X satisfies the principles of side A and interests of side B.
Trying out @PolymarketHQ now. It's unique in that it lives directly on @maticnetwork, an ethereum sidechain, and its UI is optimized for attracting users from outside crypto: it has a "buy USDC with a credit card" interface, and it uses the magic.link login service
The magic link service does fancy AWS trusted hardware stuff so that (assuming AWS does not get hacked) the "root of trust" of your account is your email.
And the outreach to non-crypto users is successful; polymarket has a lot of volume!
My honest feedback: this is a challenging tradeoff for convenience and I don't yet know how I feel about it!
For users who are new to crypto (their target demographic) the risks of magic.link are probably lower than the risk they'll lose their seed...
There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.
Some guesses:
1. Bets on prediction markets correctly incorporate the possibility of heightened election meddling, voter suppression, etc affecting the outcome, but statistical models just assume the voting process is fair
(This is the pro-prediction-market explanation)
2. Prediction markets are difficult to access for statistical/politics experts, they're too small for hedge funds to hire those experts, and the people (esp wealthy people) with the most access to PMs are more optimistic about Trump
This is an interesting thread worth reading, though I disagree with the implication that a global "empowered executive" is necessarily the correct solution; it feels like it ignores why people want *decentralized orgs* and not just *better orgs*. I think it's context-dependent...
One important issue is that people often want decentralization precisely because they want a system that has strong resistance to changing in controversial ways. "Empowered executives" are a perfect tool to circumvent that, so they could be counterproductive to that end...
There are different kinds of governance problems. Sometimes, the thing being governed is *meant to be* agile, other times it's meant to be a quiet quasi-automaton, more like a court than a legislature. Eg. quadratic funding is more like the latter than the former.