I can now share that I have signed with @HurstPublishers to write my second monograph, provisionally titled "The Bosniaks: Nationhood after Genocide," on sale circa Fall 2023. I am extremely grateful to be working with @MikeDwyerMike & co. again.
So, what can you expect?🧵
This text won't be history of the Bosniak people, nor a history of BiH. I am concerned w/ the ideological and political foundations of 21st century Bosniak nationhood. That is, the ideological self-conceptions of the largest but also most misunderstood community in BiH.
This work treats the Bosniaks as primarily an ethno-national group, rather than a religious community. While Islam is a significant aspect of their self-conception, it's the idea of Bosniak indigeneity to BiH that is the constitutive element of Bosniak ethnic & national identity.
Ideally, everyone will be a little be upset w/ this book, albeit for different reasons. Ultimately, it's a reply to the growing din of Bosnian Genocide denial, the resurgence of Serb nationalist secessionism, but also, I hope, a contribution to BiH's political liberalization.
I am aware of the risks in writing a book of this sort: that despite my efforts explicitly not to write a nationalist hagiography I will be accused of doing just that by the usual suspects. But that is precisely why I feel must write this txt; so that others won't have to. /xxx
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Vital thread from the always insightful @MaximEristavi about the sordid economic realities “Twitter influencers” from places like Ukraine, Syria, BiH etc deal with; working 18hr days, 365, providing “insight” & “analysis,” but pulling down peanuts w/ 0 institutional support.
The cruel irony in being a go-to source for analyses on societies like these is your views are seen as indispensable but the compensation is “negotiable” & usually absent entirely. So your analysis is extracted to service needs of those w/ both institutional & financial support.
And while this is especially acute for those still in-country - where ppl are risking even their own security to provide these goods - it’s true even for those in the diaspora bc almost all of us come from refugee/migrant backgrounds w/ no economic “padding” to fall back on.
The commander of @euforbih has chosen the moment of the worst security crisis in BiH since the war to observe that the formation of the BiH Armed Forces was not agreed to at Dayton. No, it was an act of the BiH Parliament, the country’s paramount law-making body.
Why did @euforbih commander chose to make this statement at this time? Let’s just say someone might want to look into his political affiliations in his native Austria, and how those synch up with the regime in Banja Luka.
Here’s the spin by Dodik’s criminally corrupt advisor, the great “gotcha”. Like every other state on Earth, BiH has a parliament that passes laws which are not explicitly stated in the constitution. Don’t like the law? Overturn it in parliament or go to the courts.
Strong sense of dread gripping everyone in BiH I am speaking with tonight. Even some informed foreign officials on the ground appear to be struggling to communicate the seriousness of the situation to their respective capitals.
My concern is that dread will soon give way to rage. Dodik is doing everything possible to make himself appear like Karadzic 2.0. But unlike in 1991/92, there won’t be peace marches; there will be demands for confrontation. Which, to some extent, he’s counting on.
As I’ve explained, his entire strategy rests on concocting a crisis which Belgrade & Moscow can then use to orchestrate some kind of (hybrid) intervention. If Dodik can win Transnistria-like status out of that for the RS entity, he’ll be satisfied.
An important txt from @julianborger on the worsening secession crisis in BiH. It’s at least encouraging that the OHR’s report to the UNSC will clearly identify that the risks of conflict have risen sharply, thx to Dodik’s adventurism. Consequences needed. theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…
BiH’s investigative outlet @IstragaB has published the full @OHR_BiH report to the UNSC and the despite lackluster start to Schmidt’s tenure this txt, correctly, pulls no punches, calling the current situation the worst crisis in post-war BiH. istraga.ba/wp-content/upl…
Remains unclear what exact timeline for actual UNSC meeting on BiH will be, whether Schmidt will speak at session. I’ve been told by at least 3 diplomatic sources from 3 different NATO states that while the Russians are the main obstacle, France also being “difficult”.
Appears all pro-BiH parties (!) will present joint elxn reform proposal to international community. Assuming they remain in lockstep, you’d need as few as 6 additional votes to reform constitution. A major development. klix.ba/clanak/2110271…
As noted earlier, this proposal borrows a few solutions from the so-called 2006 April Package, above all the indirect elxn of the presidency. While less than ideal, IMO, a joint platform is critical for ensuring worst sectarian impulses of HDZ/SNSD & their enablers stymied.
This now logically shifts the balance of power. If grand pro-BiH coalition remains united, U.S. and EU would by definition have to pressure HDZ and RS opposition if they are committed to actual reform. That’s a major strategic shift.
Leaked documents obtained by @SlobodnaBosna appear to show US elxn reform plan for BiH. As expected, the entirety of the initiative is premised on strong-arming and dividing pro-BiH parties. DF’s principled stance on no segregation-lite measures identified as key problem for US.
This is, in short, almost exactly the opposite of what BiH needs from Biden admin. Given the waning EU influence in the region, now is the moment to go for bold, genuine liberal-democratic reform; not damp, “deal for deal’s sake” proposals that only embolden centrifugal actors.
In any case, followers of this issue will know that I told you weeks ago that this was exactly the trajectory we were headed down: pressure on pro-BiH actors, accommodating Covic and the HDZ, no meaningful consequences for Dodik. Truly absurd.