Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Latest JTWC forecast for #Batsirai shows it deviating from its predicted path. "THE LLCC MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND 061600Z, THEN TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST OR A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, BUT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE INITIAL POSITION."
Full reasoning from JTWC here >> metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/…

#Batsirai has stalled & is expected to follow its existing track forecast. In the short term (36 hrs) it may intensify. The latest model guidance (GEFS plot below) does not take into account the change in behaviour
The track forecast has now been updated and #Batsirai appears now to be in the process of making the sharp turn to the south in the latest JTWC update.
Also further East. TC Cliff, designated yesterday is no longer considered to be a threat by the JTWC, with a final warning has issued this morning.
Here's a picture of TC Cliff from this morning. Which is no longer considered to be a threat to Madagascar.
This is the full reasoning/discussion from the JTWC regarding the South Indian Ocean, with attention now moving further east to disturbance of interest 93S.
The long range model forecast for 93S is also favourable for now. This is the latest GFS SIO Precipitable Water Model through 23 Feb. Its a complex situation.
Cyclone #Batsirai takes a hard left turn as the sun rises.

Astonishing.

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More from @althecat

Oct 3
This made me cry …. Tears streaming down my face. This is so very sad.

#Gazaunderattack
#GazaUnderFire
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.

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🔴 Al Jazeera English FLASHBACK| Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
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From the inside the global forum of all of the UN Building.
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But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
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More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
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The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona. Image
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.appImage
Image
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla Image
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Posting my reply again after X just quarantined my first draft by some digital voodoo
The uk is the primary transporter of materiel to Israel. And has been continuously since October 7th
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