One is ongoing since 2017: btwn ELN and Clan del Golfo for territorial control. The AGC is winning.
Two is even more alarming: the fight by the AGC to cement its presence in the fabric of society. Consolidation, purging of resistance.
Conflict 1:
The AGC’s push into Chocó, from its base in Uraba, Antioquia, has been ruthless and swift.
From a small presence in 2017, today communities say the group controls nearly every major urban center in Chocó.
The AGC have now expelled the ELN from all but a few small pockets in Medio Atrato, San Juan, and San José del Palmar.
Military operations against the ELN have simultaneously depleated & fragmented the groups leadership.
Since August, AGC has brazenly pushed south to connect its long corridor all the way to the Pacific, and then to Buenaventura.
As they enter towns, they threaten, kill, confine and purge alleged ELN partisans. Both groups plant landmines and render communities human shields
Humanitarians here estimate that about 60,000 people are forcibly confined in their communities, meaning they cannot access their livelihoods, basic services. (Map Jan-Oct 21)
In a fluvial dept, where the rivers are sustenance, transport, life...the impact has been devastating.
Quibdó is the other contested prize. The AGC and ELN have associated themselves with rival criminal bands, the Urabeños and Los Mexicanos.
In 2021, authorities reported no fewer than 214 homicides. Extortion has skyrocketed. Sexual violence is an unspoken but ubiquitous crime.
The AGC has alarmingly won sympathy with this tactic: end delinquency in exchange for communal silence.
“For many in Quibdó, the AGC are the good guys because they instill calm," I was told. "The society is associating itself with these groups out of self defense.”
Conflict 2: The fight to entrench.
With each day the AGC lives in both rural and urban communities, their presence becomes irreversible.
The strategy is predicated on destroying the existing social fabric and local authorities in order to install their own.
They threaten and kill indigenous leaders, impose themselves upon Consejos Comunitarios, limit contact with outside.
They recruit youth, rendering mothers the last lines of defense.
Children are brought in as look-outs. Women are paid girlfriends, whose loyalty is secured through financial dependence.
They pay salaries. We heard one story of how the AGC sets up a table in local town squares to pay its men in sight of everyone in the area.
They have sports clubs. At Christmas, they offered a prize to the town with the best lighting decorations.
They move in, marry locally.
I will leave you with this, which left me speechless for what the future holds.
"The groups are doing two things that no state has been capable of doing: charging taxes and offering justice.
They are not there because of their threats but because of the authority they wield."
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⚠️For the last three years, we @crisisgroup have warned about a deterioration in #Colombia’s conflict that risked sparking a new cycle of war.
We are very concerned that moment is now. Escalations on various frontlines have taken the conflict to a very dangerous inflection point
In just the last four days, astounding levels and types of violence have harkened back to a much darker time of conflict:
House-to-house assassinations, thousands fleeing by foot, mass kidnappings, levels of combat between armed groups that leave scores dead and more wounded.
Most alarming of all, this is not just one battlefront.
The military & authorities are struggling to control new armed group offensives in Catatumbo, Arauca, Guaviare, Caquetá, sur de Córdoba, Eje Cafetera, along with persistent fighting in Cauca, Valle, Nariño, Antioquia.
#Colombia’s bid to open talks with organized crime – part of a broader policy of dialogue with all armed structures in the country – is running up against a growing number of legal and political obstacles.
Short 🧵 on where talks stand with the largest group the Gulf Clan (AGC)
Total peace is, first and foremost, about reducing violence in the countryside.
AGC is key: they wield enough power to have shut down much of the Atlantic coast & several medium-sized cities during an armed strike last year.
We @crisigroup have documented how the AGC recruits heavily in rural communities, imposes its will on local elected authorities, orders movement restrictions, & coercively coopts communities through a balance of material handouts and violent penalties.
Dentro el #reclutamiento de menores, "la tendencia es feminina" nos contó un oficial de seguridad.
Por engaño, por llenar sus estómagos, por la promesa de afectividad dentro un contexto donde no la hay en la casa, los grupos armados & criminales están llevando niñas a las filas
Las mujeres cabeza de hogar que tienen hijos que mantener se han convertido en objetivos de explotación por parte de grupos armados y criminales
“La dependencia económica genera muchos más riesgos”, explicó una joven lideresa en Quibdó. “hay que depender de terceros”
Algunas observaciones de la visita con la Union Europea:
1) La implementación del acuerdo de paz 2016 sigue siendo la prioridad para la comunidad internacional - y la fundación sobre lo cual Colombia puede construir cualquier nueva paz, total o parcial
2) Hemos observado un incremento en violencia relacionado al control social en comunidades rurales: reclutamiento de menores, restricciones de movimiento, violencia de género.
Crucial que el gobierno prioriza los grupos más expuestos - comunidades étnicas, jóvenes, mujeres
Some reasons that @petrogustavo's victory today in #Colombia is historic. 🧵 These are not normative judgments, but realities after a half century of conflict and all that it entailed.
1. Fear & stigmatization of the political left is no longer a winning campaign strategy.
2. Day-to-day concerns now dominate #Colombia political debate - inequality, lack of opportunity, rural development. The conflict-and fear of its existential threat to Bogota-are moved to the back burner
3. Diversity is not a liability but an asset, politically.
4. Colombians voted for a candidate who promises to negotiate with the ELN and dismantle other armed groups, in consultation with the society.
5. An outsider won, but with the support of many familiar faces from the political class.