Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Feb 8 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
🧵 I have a question: amid the Ukraine crises, while some reports look at Russia’s context, l see very few reports appear to be looking at the US context; how Ukraine was entwined with Trump era scandals and also Biden in previous admins.
Doesn’t it seem strange the way Ukraine became this kind of key issue in US policy, but not just policy the way the US may support Poland or Estonia…but it looks MUCH larger. The last admin literally had an impeachment over this…and Biden and son had this whole contretemps too
There is a deep connection in US politics to Ukraine. It’s but just happenstance. And yet now the crisis there is seen as kind of in a vacuum. But those like Biden have a long historic knowledge of this, one might argue even controversial background, but the point is it’s not new
In 2009 “Biden was scheduled to hold talks Tuesday with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych before travelling Wednesday to Georgia to meet leaders there.” amp.france24.com/en/20090721-bi…
Biden was deeply interested in Ukraine’s NATO bid and also concerned about the “reset” which failed anyway
Under Obama the admin backed Ukraine’s protests against Yanukovych in 2013 and the new leadership in 2014 “Hillary Clinton, the former U.S. secretary of state, has called for a stronger response to Russia's actions in Ukraine” rferl.org/amp/russia-us-…
The admin had been dealing with Russia at the time and Biden was involved deeply foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/30/bid…
2014 was an interesting time wsj.com/amp/articles/b…
Back in 2015 Biden was point person on Ukraine in Obama admin

amp.economist.com/europe/2015/12…
In 2015 we have this NYT report nytimes.com/2015/12/09/wor…
Back in 2016 “Vice President Joe Biden led the administration’s support of Ukraine. But Kiev worries whether the next White House will have its back as Putin looks to ramp up pressure.” foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/30/wha…
Then comes 2017 “Kiev officials are scrambling to make amends with the president-elect after quietly working to boost Clinton” politico.com/story/2017/01/…
The Trump admin was deeply involved in Ukraine issues, often to its detriment washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
The way Ukraine became part of US politics was toxic amp.usatoday.com/amp/4483807002
The 2016 elections were part of this politico.eu/article/ukrain…
This brings us to the spring of 2021, Biden has just begun his presidency and tensions are rising usnews.com/news/politics/…
This brings us to the fall of 2021 as tensions rise nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna8…
And now full circle to today bbc.com/news/world-eur…
I think any account of the current crisis needs to consider the long history here. While some of this is just US foreign policy and Russia’s long-term interests, there’s a lot of water under the bridge and background

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More from @sfrantzman

Feb 8
If Macron can pull this off it will be fascinating...not sure what some media will do though since they told us the invasion is imminent for months and came up with all sorts of stories...(the same folk that of course told us we need diplomacy with Iran...need a deal not war etc)
I mean remember back in 2014-2015 how we were told that "if we don't do a deal there will be war"...even though there was zero evidence of "war"...but when it came to Russia it was like "there will be an invasion in the next week..."...there wasn't even a question about it
Not one was saying "we need to do a deal with Russia or there will be war"...it was just presented as a fait accompli...there will be an invasion...why...who knows...we don't know, just it will happen, it is written in stone...
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
How do they put more wood in that fire place to keep the flame so high, the wood must be exhausted quickly by such a high flame…so where is the extra wood? Also how come it doesn’t leave bits of wood near the fireplace, usually there is some mess?
Is the fire fake or burning fake wood? What’s happening here? Usually a fire like that you need to have wood available right nearby with tongs or something to put it in, putting it in by hand can be hot. It doesn’t make sense? Is there some contraption feeding the fire?
Look how much flame there is? And there’s not a speck of dirt or wood fragments nearby from feeding it? How does it work? Where are the tongs and things to maintain it?
Read 4 tweets
Feb 8
Exactly. There is no greater scam than the people who oppose the SDF and worked for isolate them and not have any official meetings with them and US officials, and then demand the SDF do a better job running a prison that the West basically forced them to run.
The huge scam is that countries won’t take back their ISIS members and demand the SDF not release them AND say SDF can’t turn them over to Syria regime…and don’t want the SDF paid to keep the prisoners. It’s a huge catch-22…then they complain the prisoners escape too
There is a double standard, the same people that want a temporary, transaction and tactical relations with the SDF, and say they are sub-state group we can’t officially work with…are the SAME ones who then treat them as a quasi-state in reports and condemnations
Read 5 tweets
Feb 7
I can't get over how you have these pro-Ankara accounts that put out positive statements about Israel-Turkey reconciliation...and then days later are bashing Israel, bashing Israeli politicians, and spreading conspiracies about Israel's role in the region...ummm...
The reality of the pro-Ankara troll army is that one minute it gets the talking point about "wow...Israel and Turkey may reconcile...Israel's president is visiting"...but their real view...the entrenched one...is visceral hatred of Israel and sometimes antisemitism.
One can't talk about reconciliation and also hate the country one is "reconciling" with...literally I see these trolls backing Hamas...and then being like "oh there could be reconciliation." You can't back extremists and terror and also be fore "reconciliation."
Read 12 tweets
Feb 5
Fars News reporting in Iran that Kataib Hezbollah has "warned Turkey: Withdraw your forces before it's too late"...usually when Iran media that is close to IRGC messages something like this, an action may follow. Watch closely if KH or a "new group" linked to them does something
There have been previous incidents where pro-Iran militias targeted Turkish forces in Iraq, usually the Bashiqa base, for instance back in November; rudaw.net/english/middle…
It's important to recall that while many Turkish forces in Iraq are concentrated in a string of mountain bases and outposts, which Ankara claims is to fight "terrorism"...that the Bashiqa camp is on the border of the KRG, and is within range of the 107mm and 122mm from Nineveh
Read 9 tweets
Feb 5
THREAD: The narrative about the killing of ISIS leader Qurayshi includes several narratives; let me sum them up:

1. "He was very hands-on leader & involved in many day-to-day operations."

2. "Qurayshi, never left his compound. Living on the 3rd floor with family, he emerged only occasionally to bathe on roof. Families with no connection to ISIS lived on the first floor, apparently without knowledge of the terrorist two stories above them." edition.cnn.com/2022/02/03/pol…
3."After years of war, Idlib’s social structure has been torn up, scrambled, and overwhelmed by displaced people from other parts of Syria, creating a situation where a stranger can easily go unnoticed. On top of that, it is basically stateless territory."
Read 11 tweets

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